WWE Royal Rumble 2024 Picks: Best Bets for CM Punk, MJF, Cody Rhodes, Bayley

The best match of the year comes Saturday night, when WWE starts the road to WresteMania with the Royal Rumble. Pat Patterson made the iconic decision to enhance a standard battle royale, creating the first ever Royal Rumble in 1988. Instead of all competitors starting inside the ring, a new superstar was introduced every two minutes. History was made when Bret Hart drew number one, Hacksaw Jim Duggan became the first winner and the WWE Universe began to chant “5, 4, 3, 2, 1!!”.

The five-star standard for all other iterations of the Royal Rumble came in 1992, when the WWF Championship was up for grabs. The competitors read as a "who’s who" through multiple generations of the sport from Hulk Hogan, Shawn Michaels and The Undertaker. Ric Flair would go on to win his first ever WWF title, setting the standard for all other Rumbles. 

In retrospect, the 2014 Royal Rumble had a shot to be the best ever. CM Punk, Cody Rhodes and Seth Rollins led off the match, giving viewers a taste of the future. The Rumble quickly soured with a Dave Bautista chorus of boos when Daniel Bryan failed to make an appearance.

WWE creative learned their lesson, as Triple H’s victory in 2016 is the only time a heel has won the Rumble in the past decade. Fast-forward to 2024, and a sleuth of faces are set to collide with a chance to main event WrestleMania 40 in Philadelphia. 

This article will look at both the Men's and Women's Royal Rumbles with the goal of finding value. While long-shot odds rarely win this event, WWE creative has fooled oddsmakers for well over a year in booking the finale of pay-per-views.

Here is a look at the latest odds along with a breakdown of the primary contenders for each of the Rumble matches:

Below odds via BetMGM and as of Saturday, January 27. You can use our BetMGM bonus codefor bonus bets before making your WWE Royal Rumble picks.

Men's Royal Rumble Best Bets

The largest elephant in the room is the newest member of the TKO Board of Directors. Dwayne Johnson now owns the rights to his name 'The Rock' as he provides $TKO with promotional and licensing services. When the 2000 Royal Rumble winner was asked about a match with Roman Reigns, The Rock suggested it would be the biggest WrestleMania main event ever.

The question with the battle for the "Head of the Table" is no longer if, but when two of the greatest all-time superstars collide. The Rock wants the most eyes possible, whether that is in Philadelphia this April or in the rumored WrestleMania 41 host cities of Minneapolis or London. A win in this Royal Rumble would create an infinite amount of creative holes in the storylines of the names at the top of the odds board. Keep in mind that a WWE legend of this status does not need a Royal Rumble win to show up at WrestleMania — ask Stone Cold Steve Austin.

The Rock to even participate in the match should be lined closer to 20/1, much less to win the match.

There are a couple of bullet points going against a victory for The American Nightmare, Cody Rhodes. Only three superstars have ever won back-to-back Rumbles from Hulk Hogan, Shawn Michaels and Austin. The son of Dusty Rhodes has a massive story to finish in capturing the WWE Universal Championship held by Reigns. The most important element of the equation is Reigns' title run, scheduled to surpass Hulk Hogan in September of this year.

Will WWE creative elect to send Rhodes to Philadelphia for a second-consecutive main event loss to Reigns? The best market for the American Nightmare is in the prop market, looking to take the ironman title for the longest duration. Rhodes currently ranks 10th all-time in cumulative minutes, but is 39 minutes away from hopping Triple H into the fourth-longest cumulative time ever. Because of the Rumble victory last year, it is much more likely the former AEW star wins the Elimination Chamber in Australia.

Speaking of AEW, the professional wrestling universe might have a clear answer to the home base of MJF. While surprise returns in this Rumble may include Andrade, Ken Shamrock and Big E, none of them have a legitimate shot at headlining WrestleMania like Maxwell Jacob Freeman.

The 27-year-old was vocal all 2023 about the bidding war between AEW and WWE as his contract was up on December 31st. MJF dropped the AEW Championship to Samoa Joe on December 30th, closed a storyline loop with Adam Cole and has disappeared off the map. There has been no social media activity for MJF on any platform since the new year, as AEW removed the former champ from its roster page.

While a jump to WWE is inevitable, a surprise entrant to win the Rumble fresh from another company is a boundary that WWE will not cross. The more likely story for MJF is to eliminate Rhodes, setting up a WrestleMania showdown. An MJF appearance in the prop market is worth a wager at current odds of +300, but an outright winner has no value at anything less than 20/1.

Both Smackdown and RAW have had very different narratives when it comes to the Rumble. Friday night superstars like LA Knight, Randy Orton and AJ Styles may not even compete after a fatal four-way match with Reigns. No other superstar on the blue brand has even mentioned winning the Rumble and facing Reigns. The focus of the men's winner should come from Monday Night Raw, as a bevy of competitors have told World Heavyweight Champion Seth Rollins their intentions.

The latest personality to challenge Rollins on the microphone was Gunther. The longest-reigning Intercontinental Champion is on a heater, retaining the title since June of 2022 and logging the second-highest individual Rumble time last year at one hour and eleven minutes. The leader of Imperium may one day be a world champion, but the recent storylines point him to a feud with New Day and a title defense against Big E. The dream match for Gunther is Brock Lesnar, as this Rumble presents a very realistic chance to kick off a program between the two.

Damian Priest represents the lone threat from the Judgement Day, but internal struggles within the faction have plagued the superstar. Priest has not been booked correctly leading up to the Rumble, taking a clean pinfall on the go-home edition of Raw. With Rollins expected to be off programming thanks to injury, the Priest storyline is currently stalled in a spin cycle with R-Truth.

The winner by pinfall over Priest this past week is the steaming heel story of Drew McIntyre. The former WWE Champion has turned bitter, bothered by the fandom for his peers on Monday night. Off the screen, McIntyre's current contract runs out after WrestleMania, yielding a wide variance of outcomes from the Rumble to the show of all shows. The push has been fantastic in the heel role, but McIntyre faced Rollins for the title on January 1st. There is plenty of value in a Drew McIntyre Final Four +150, but if there is a prop on who eliminates him there is a primary candidate.

Despite multiple entries and drawing number one on two occasions, CM Punk has never won the Royal Rumble. The former WWE and AEW World Champion returned to the scene after the Survivor Series, only to make his intentions clear: win the Royal Rumble. Punk chose Raw over Smackdown and NXT, eventually coming face to face with Rollins. The showdown between the two has been set up for nearly a half decade, with Rollins riffing on Punk multiple times throughout the years. Make no mistake about it, Punk's contract came with incentives to win the Rumble and headline WrestleMania.

The selection of Punk by WWE writers is the path of least resistance. The Rock and Cody Rhodes angle with Reigns is put on the back burner, McIntyre is free to face Sami Zayn and Smackdown stars will continue to bridge the timeline to Philadelphia. Even if Punk draws number five, look for WWE to wrap up the Night 1 main event picture with Rollins having an opponent for the World Heavyweight Championship.

Picks: CM Punk (through -250) | Drew McIntyre Final Four +150 | Rhodes Ironman +100 | MJF Appearance +300

Women's Royal Rumble Best Bets

Rhea Ripley crushed the Rumble a year ago, drawing number one and throwing out seven competitors. Ripley owns the longest time spent in a single Rumble at 61 minutes and change. The Judgement Day leader has dominated the women's division, spending the past 12 months on the search for a true contender. Just like the men's division, RAW seems to be the focus for the Rumble contenders over Smackdown. The top of the odds board is filled with surprise competitors and the three biggest names from RAW.

Nia Jax has squashed every opponent in her path since a return to the WWE. She is a former world champion and has never won the Rumble in the short history of the women's division, competing since 2018. Jax has the ring and microphone skills to carry a program with Ripley through WrestleMania, but consistent issues with working stiff and injuring her peers has held her career back. With her success on RAW over the past month, including a confrontation with Ripley, Jax is worth a prop bet on making the final four.

One of the competitors squashed by Jax is former champion Becky Lynch. 'The Man' is desperately searching for her past identity as an ass-kicker, getting a retro hairstyle and calling competitors a 'dope.' The results have not been there for Lynch, losing clean to Jax on January 1st while battling a case of self-doubt.

This version of Lynch is not ready to claim a Royal Rumble victory, as the character is looking for a spark in a sea of sharks on Saturday night. There is every expectation that Lynch heads to Elimination Chamber in late February, basking in full desperation mode to win a world title shot at WrestleMania. The current character on-screen needs to bake a bit more in the oven, as character development will create the ultimate showdown with Ripley.

The new generation of wrestlers will be represented in the Rumble with plenty of influence from current or former stars of NXT. Two superstars the WWE has been willing to push over the past six months are Zoey Stark and Ivy Nile. Both had their short runs interrupted by Ripley, but both could be given the chance to shine in this match. Look to place a half unit on both Nile and Stark for most eliminations in the Women's Royal Rumble.

There will be a copious amount of surprise entrants into the Women's Rumble. Former champion Liv Morgan is set to come off the injury shelf, but recent activity may delay her return or prevent a Rumble victory. Morgan was arrested in Florida for possession or marijuana, as a court date is scheduled in mid-February.

There are heavy expectations after the signing of Jade Cargill from AEW. The acquisition immediately showed up in interviews on WWE programming, ultimately landing in NXT during Halloween Havoc. Cargill has the look and the athleticism to be a world champion in WWE, but it is widely known that a long stint at the WWE Performance Center is in need. Plenty of mistakes were made during her TBS Championship run in AEW, an area WWE is sure to shore up before allowing her regular camera time.

Don't expect Raquel Rodriguez to be a surprise entrant to the Royal Rumble. The superstar was diagnosed with Mast Cell Activation Syndrome to start 2024, as no timetable has been set for her return.

No matter what steam hits the market on Saturday, count Ronda Rousey out of this Rumble. The former UFC champion is in another wrestling promotion with no love lost between herself and the WWE.

A surprise entrant we can pencil in is Naomi, off a recent stint as TNA Knockouts World Champion under her real name, Trinity Fatu. The former WWE women's tag team champion has close to no shot in winning the Rumble, but may very well be the sidekick for her former tag team partner.

Sasha Banks, also known as Mercedes Mone, has wrapped up her stint in New Japan Pro Wrestling. Banks left WWE in May 2022 for unknown reasons, waiting patiently for a release from the company. Internet rumors on her departure caught up with 'The Boss' at a signing, as Banks disputed WWE creative as the reason for her absence.

While her New Japan ring name is a play off the word 'money', her departure from WWE was a bet on herself to get out of a contract that did not pay the same as Lynch or Charlotte Flair. AEW and WWE are in a bidding war for Banks, and if the latter wins we can expect to see the Mercedes Mone character on Smackdown fighting her New Japan nemesis, Kairi Sane.

The return of both Naomi and Banks would play nicely into a storyline that has been in development for months. The Damage CTRL faction has dominated the women's scene since July 2022, created and led by Bayley. The original version included Dakota Kai and Iyo Sky, quickly becoming a force with tag team titles and an unlikely Money in the Bank victory.

Sky would win the briefcase, later cashing in for her first world title with the help of Bayley. The leader of the Damage CTRL faction quickly pivoted to Sky, adding Kairi Sane and Asuka to the group without notification. Bayley has been on the outside looking in, proclaiming her Rumble victory will give her a chance to beat Ripley at WrestleMania. The fracture in Damage CTRL is quickly coming to a head, a point that could be accelerated if Banks returns in support of her best friend and former tag team partner Bayley.

There is every expectation that Damage CTRL turns its back on its former leader and that Bayley selects Sky as her WrestleMania opponent. The order of those two events are expected to play out during the match, as Bayley might get an assist from her former Horsewomen. Another bullet point for Bayley is that she has never won the Rumble, a limitation for both Lynch and soon-to-be Hulu star Bianca Belair.

Picks: Bayley -150 or Better | Most Eliminations Zoey Stark +800, Ivy Nile +1000 | Nia Jax Final Four -130 | Sasha Banks Appearance +200

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