SuperContest: Small lines for Week 7 games
Las Vegas – After what happened last night on Thursday Night Football, I think it would be wise to avoid betting on road favorites this season. There is enough evidence to see that parity is king in the NFL in 2017.
The Raiders were getting three points at home against the Chiefs, and the public hammered Kansas City to win and cover. Instead, the home team won outright on a crazy ending, on a untimed down, dropping the season record of road favorites to 10-21-1. That’s just a 32.3 winning percentage! Over the last three weeks, including last night, the record is a pathetic 0-6-1.
Michael Crabtree. pic.twitter.com/QE3qBBMf7B
— OAKLAND RAIDERS (@RAIDERS) October 20, 2017
Now, the SuperContest doesn’t normally play Thursday night games because you have to submit your picks really early to select that game, but I’m assuming some of the teams rolled with the Chiefs. The Raiders saved their season with the win, but there were plenty of questionable calls in that one.
For the record, I was fine with the questionable calls, because I bet the Raiders +3 last night.
For Week 7, I’m rolling with the trend mentioned above. That means teams like Titans, Jags, Panthers, Saints, Cowboys and Seahawks, who are all favored on the road, are untouchable for Team Gamenight this week. It also means that I took a long look at their underdog opponents.
I’m 14-14-2 and in desperate need of a big week. Let’s makes some picks!
Bears +3 vs. Panthers
With the news that LB Luke Kuechly will not play for the Panthers, it goes without saying that the run defense for Carolina takes a big hit. The Bears have been great at home ATS over the last eight, going 7-1, and they sport a rush offense that is chewing up over 135 yards per game. I like Chicago as a home dog, where teams are 21-10-1 ATS this year.
49ers +6.5 vs. Cowboys
Did I mention teams at home getting points are 21-10-1 against the spread so far this season? This match-up used to be huge when it came around, but now, it’s a 2-3 football team on the road against an 0-6 team. I know Dallas will have Zeke Elliott and they will be coming off a bye, but I think there are big problems in Big D. I think this pick will be sneaky good because San Francisco is in every game they play. The 49ers are 4-2 ATS, and I think they will play hard at home and lose a close game to Dallas. I’ll take the points.
“From the very first day I met C.J. he came across as a guy that just leads. That’s just who he is as a person"https://t.co/yWjcWfHdxL
— San Francisco 49ers (@49ers) October 20, 2017
Giants +5.5 vs. Seattle
I’m predicting that this pick will be an extremely popular, maybe the No. 1 consensus pick for this week. Seattle as a road favorite is not a good team to bet, as they have lost four straight games ATS and are 1-6 ATS over their last seven on the road overall. the Seahawks are coming off a road win over the Rams, and they will face a Giants team that just blasted the Broncos in Denver. New York may not win this game, but I like the points here.
Broncos +1.5 at Chargers
As I mentioned above, Denver laid a big egg after their bye against a banged up 0-5 Giants team last week. To me, that was a fluke. I like what the Broncos have done so far this year, including a 2-2-1 number ATS. This game opened at -2.5 and as of Friday afternoon had been bet down to a pick’em. The Chargers have been horrible at home and do not have a normal home-field advantage. In fact, LA has lost seven games ATS in a row dating back to November of last year. The Chargers are 0-3 this year playing in Los Angeles, and I’ll take the Broncos to win this game outright.
Falcons +3.5 at Patriots
Let me first say that I think New England wins this game. However, there is something really wrong with the Patriots defense, and the Falcons are going to move the ball on Sunday Night Football. This is a numbers play for me because I think it will be a close game. Atlanta has been hearing about the comeback in the Super Bowl for months, and I like rolling with teams that are seeing red. Tom Brady and the Pats find ways to win games at home, but I will take the points.
Our best team so far, Team Bet The Process (19-10-1), is currently in 91st place of the contest and is rolling with the underdogs as well. This week, Bet is taking the Bears +3, the Packers +5.5, Cardinals +3.5, Giants +5.5 and the Broncos +1.5.
Right behind them is Team Beatrix Kiddo (17-11-2), who is in 254th place out of the over 2,700 entries this year. Kiddo is already 1-0 after taking the Raiders +3 on TNF. For Sunday, Beatrix likes Bengals +5.5, the Chargers -1.5 at home to finally win, Falcons +3 to cover at the Pats and the Redskins +5.
Team Sports Action (13-16-1), our computer algorithm, likes the Browns +5.5 against the Titans, the Dolphins -3 at home against the Jets, Packers +5.5, the Giants +5.5 and the Eagles -5 on Monday Night Football.
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