Vasiliy Lomachenko vs. Teofimo Lopez Boxing Odds, Picks and Predictions: How to Bet This Lightweight Title Fight (Saturday, Oct. 17)
Al Bello/Getty Images. Pictured (L-R): WBO/WBA Lightweight champion Vasiliy Lomachenko, IBF Lightweight champion Teofimo Lopez.
- Vasiliy Lomachenko faces Teofimo Lopez in a Top Rank boxing lightweight unification bout on Saturday night. Lomachenko is favored at -400.
- Michael Leboff breaks down the fight below and shares his betting analysis and picks.
Lomachenko vs. Lopez Odds
|Lomachenko Odds||-400 [BET NOW]|
|Lopez Odds||+315 [BET NOW]|
|Draw||+2000 [BET NOW]|
|Over/Under||10.5 Rounds (-200/+150) [BET NOW]|
|Time||Approx. 11 p.m. ET|
|How To Watch||ESPN|
It’s been a long year, especially in the world of boxing. However, Saturday night’s bout between the No. 2 pound-for-pound fighter in the world and one of the most exciting young boxers in the sport could be a much needed boost for Bob Arum and Top Rank.
Vasiliy Lomachenko (14-1, 10 KO) is a healthy -400 favorite (80% implied win probability) over Teofimo Lopez (15-1, 12 KO) in Saturday’s lightweight unification bout. As high as those odds may seem for a unification bout, it’s the lowest Loma has been favored by since 2017 before he moved up to the 135-pound division. Should Lopez remain the underdog in this matchup, it would be the first time he closed as the dog since 2016, according to data from Pro Boxing Odds.
So, where’s the value in this fight? I’ll break down the likely paths to victory below.
Can Teofimo Lopez Find an Opening?
When you’re trying to find an edge in a fight between two elite boxers you want to explore paths to success. How can Teofimo Lopez win? What does a Vasiliy Lomachenko victory look like? How likely are those outcomes?
Naturally, the paths to victory for an underdog like Lopez are much more limited compared to Lomachenko. It’s hard to envision the Brooklyn native beating Lomachenko’s symphonic style of boxing on the cards, so that boils down this handicap to one question.
How likely is it that Lopez knocks out Lomachenko?
Lopez can knock out anybody in this weight class. He’s hulking, powerful and has impeccable timing. If you make a mistake or let your guard down for a split second, Lopez will plant you on the canvass.
Lopez’s timing and power can change a fight in an instant. In his career-defining win over Richard Commey, Lopez rocked the former lightweight champion with a left hook early Round 2.
The punch really came from nothing, showing that Teofimo can find even the slightest opening, and when it landed it sent Commey into survival mode. When a fighter is in a shadowy place like Commey was, he’s apt to make a mistake and that’s how fights end against Lopez.
Lomachenko will provide a much more complicated test than any opponent Lopez has faced in his career. Not only is Loma lightyears better than anybody Lopez has defeated, but this will also be the first time where the 23-year-old will need to fight off the back foot.
Lopez is a great stalker and his power works best when he’s moving forward or sitting in the pocket, but that just won’t be possible against the best pressure-fighter in boxing.
Not only is Lomachenko relentless in between the bells, but his movement is so fluid and hard to predict that it makes trying to time a counter against him nearly impossible. That means that Lopez will likely be on the move the entire fight, which should sap some of his power as we get deeper into the fight.
Lopez also hasn’t had to absorb much punishment in his professional fights so far. I don’t doubt that Lopez can take a punch, but Lomachenko doesn’t stop working. Lopez is the bigger fighter and has more one-punch power than Loma, but it takes a special effort to just be able to survive the volume that the Ukrainian throws in a 12-round fight.
Lopez vs. Lomachenko Betting Pick
Lopez is perhaps the only fighter in this division that has a tool dangerous enough to give Lomachenko pause. Lopez’s power and timing is a field-leveler.
In his first fight as a lightweight, Jorge Linares was able to drop Loma with a counter-right. Lomachenko dominated almost every second of that bout and stopped Linares in the 10th round, but he made one false move against a terrific fighter and landed on the canvass. If he does that against Lopez, all bets are off.
That said, I think the chances of Lopez being able to catch Lomachenko are very slim and I would need better than the +315 on Lopez to win or the +500 on the Brooklynite to win by stoppage to have a bet on the New Yorker.
After earning the moniker “NoMasChenko” for the way he laid waste to the featherweight and super featherweight divisions, Lomachenko has “only” stopped two of his first four opponents at 135 pounds. That is causing some skepticism about whether or not Loma’s power-by-volume approach will work against bigger fighters. “Hi-Tek” dominated Luke Campbell and Jose Pedraza, but he wasn’t able to close the curtains.
The difference here is that the fight-script for Lopez should read very differently from what he saw against Pedraza and Campbell. Lopez is a confident stalker, Campbell and Pedraza were there to survive and perhaps get lucky. Lopez will have a very different game plan.
Lopez’s only viable path to unifying the division is through a KO. I expect him to take chances and hunt for a fight-changing punch. That should open up opportunities for Lomachenko, who went to the body a ton in his last fight against Campbell, to score and do damage.
Considering that we haven’t seen how Lopez will be able the kind of punishment that Lomachenko can provide, I’m going to take a chance on Loma winning this fight before the final bell. It seems like a lot of people inside the boxing industry are picking Loma to win by decision at -110ish and it’s not hard to see why. The Ukrainian is the superior boxer, mover and defender. That’s a recipe for success on the scorecards. Additonally, there are a lot of folks skeptical that Lomachenko will be able to consistently stop his opponents at lightweight. Sure, “Hi-Tek” hasn’t stopped every lightweight he’s faced, but he’s still 2-for-4 and wasn’t that far off from making it 3-for-4 against Luke Campbell. Had the rangy Englishman not made the final bell — and there were times when it looked like he wouldn’t — this side-narrative of “can Lomachenko consistently stop lightweights?” would be flipped.
I don’t think people are giving Lomachenko’s smother-storm style enough respect. He may not be the power-puncher in the ring on Saturday, but let’s not forget there are more ways to earn a KO than just a one-punch flooring. If Lopez can’t keep up with Lomachenko’s speed and movement, he will be in big trouble and I don’t think a referee stoppage late in a one-sided fight is out of the question.
I like Lomachenko by KO/TKO/DQ at +200 as my favorite bet, but wouldn’t be opposed to a small bet on Loma to win Rounds 10-12 at +1100 at DraftKings.