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Saturday Betting Cheat Sheet: Kentucky Derby, Warriors-Rockets, Canelo vs. Jacobs, More

May 04, 2019 7:00 PM EDT
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USA Today Sports. Pictured: Kevin Durant, Game Winner, Canelo Alvarez

  • The Kentucky Derby. Warriors-Rockets Game 3. Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs.
  • The Action Network has Saturday's full slate of betting covered with analysis and picks.

Happy May 4! Otherwise known as a betting holiday.

We’ve got a full day of action, from the Kentucky Derby to playoff basketball to a marquee boxing match and — somehow — even more (including a 15-game slate of baseball). And our staff has analysis, trends and picks for it all.

Below is a rundown of our best stories for each of Saturday’s big events.

Kentucky Derby

Longshots Betting Preview

If you’ve been following the lead up to the Kentucky Derby, you know that it’s going to be a wide-open affair. You could make an argument for any horse in the field.

There’s a lot of volatility in this race and the forecast, which is calling for rain, will only add to the uncertainty. Handicapping how these horses will hand an off-track makes picking a winner even more difficult.

So which longshots are worth a bet?

Read Adam Staple’s betting strategies and picks here.

Quick Derby Links

Saturday’s MLB Betting Model

Sean Zerillo is in Louisville for the Derby, but you can still get his picks and projections over the weekend.

Get Zerillo’s model for Saturday’s games here plus Collin Wilson’s umpire betting preview.

Warriors vs. Rockets

Game 3 Betting Preview

No NBA team has ever lost a series when leading 3-0. So with Golden State up 2-0 as the series shifts to Houston, the Rockets find themselves in an essential must-win spot.

Will they rally to get back in this series?

There’s at least one trend not in Houston’s favor: In the Steve Kerr era, Golden State is 11-1 in playoff series after winning the first two games. The lone loss came in the 2016 Finals, when the Warriors blew a 3-1 lead to LeBron James and the Cavaliers.

Read more in-depth betting analysis and get our staff’s picks here.


Is James Harden Having a Bad Series vs. the Warriors?

All eyes will be on James Harden Saturday as the Rockets try and get their series with the Warriors back on track and avoid going down 0-3. The Harden’s eyes, however, is still very much in question.

Harden was hit inadvertently by Draymond Green in the eye and despite seeing doctors and getting treatment, has been photographed with a clearly red and swollen left eye.

But in the playoffs, no excuses can be provided for superstars. The postseason is recalcitrant, and you must find a way to bend it to your will.

Read more of Matt’s analysis on Harden ahead of a critical Game 3


Rockets-Warriors Game 3 Player Props

DeMarcus Cousins is likely done for the rest of the postseason, and Iguodala has been the biggest beneficiary. He hasn’t seen a huge bump in usage or rebound rate with Cousins off the court during the postseason, but he has seen a large increase in playing time.

Read more Game 3 player props here


NBA Fantasy Breakdown

James Harden leads all players on the slate with a +16.29 Projected Plus/Minus. His projected ceiling is higher than any other player’s on the slate by more than 10 points in the UTIL slot and over 15 points in the CAP slot.

Read the rest of Matt Lamarca’s daily fantasy breakdown

Canelo Alvarez vs. Daniel Jacobs

Betting Guide

At this point in his career, Canelo can beat you with his accurate counter-punching, his power, his speed, his boxing IQ or all of the above. You could suggest this fight is closer than people think, but there’s no question Canelo is the No. 1 talent in the ring on Saturday.

That being said, Alvarez will need his A-Game because Daniel Jacobs presents a bunch of different problems.

Read our full breakdown of both fighters and get our picks here.

Undercard Preview

Vergil Ortiz Jr. (-2500) vs. Mauricio Herrera (+1000)

Ortiz has a huge step up in competition across the ring from him in Herrera (24-8), who is is 17 years older than Ortiz. Herrera lost a close fight with Danny Garcia by majority decision in 2014 despite landing more total punches. He very well could have been a title holder as a junior welterweight.

From a style standpoint, Herrera will be very tough to deal with, especially for a guy in his 13th fight.

Read more on the undercard (and see our picks) here.

UFC on ESPN+ 9

Betting Preview

After a multi-year sojourn at welterweight, Donald “Cowboy” Cerrone (35-11) is back at 155 pounds and the recent father has his eyes firmly set on the title.

Cowboy is a living legend in the sport, and in this fight he’ll look to add to his unparalleled resume.

Read the main event betting preview here as well as the undercard preview.

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