PDC Home Tour Darts Betting Odds, Preview and Picks for Day 25 (Monday, May 11)
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If you’ve been following along with our PDC Home Tour Darts coverage, you know what our basic strategy is for the group stages of this first-of-its-kind event. Given the unfamiliar environment and format for this tournament– the players are at home, play is sometimes interrupted by phone calls and the matches are short — it seems unwise to back big favorites.
A few weeks ago I was amped up for Keegan “The Needle” Brown’s turn on the PDC Home Tour. Brown was meant to be the feel-good story of the tournament as he was taking a break from his other job, working as an assistant in a hospital lab, to participate in Group 12 of the Home Tour.
Unfortunatlely, “The Needle” was the victim of some spotty internet connections and had to pull out of Night 12 after just one match. It was a twisted ending for what was supposed to be a nice moment.
Fortunately, the PDC invited “The Needle” back for Monday’s Group 25, giving Brown, and his internet connection, a shot at redemption.
PDC Home Tour Night 25 Betting Odds and Picks
Monday, May 11 at 2:30 p.m. ET
- No. 59 Jose De Sousa (+120)
- No. 30 Keegan Brown (+250)
- No. 84 Reece Robinson (+400)
- No. 62 Robert Thornton (+400)
- Keegan Brown (-177) vs. Reece Robinson (+135)
- Jose De Sousa (-230) vs. Robert Thornton (+170)
- Reece Robinson (-114) vs. Robert Thornton (-114)
- Keegan Brown (+125) vs. Jose De Sousa (-165)
- Jose De Sousa (-240) vs. Reece Robinson (+180)
- Robert Thornton (+125) vs. Keegan Brown (-162)
There’s a bit of a gap between the top and bottom half of Group 25 but it’s not nearly as pronounced as some of the other sets we’ve seen thus far. Jose De Sousa leads this quartet with a 96.37 scoring average over the past 365 days but we’ve seen plenty of better players struggle to adapt to this volatile format and I’ve got no interest in playing the Portuguese at an inflated price.
Instead, I’ll look to take on De Sousa with the two group underdogs, Robert Thornton and Reece Robinson. Neither Thornton nor Robinson rank inside the top 100 in scoring over the past year but I still think they have a decent chance of doing the business against De Sousa on Monday.
As we’ve seen countless times over the past three-plus weeks, anybody can beat anybody in this competition and a 9-leg match of darts is about who gets hot more than anything else. The better player, in this case De Sousa, is still more likely to win, but the playing field is much more level in these shorter matches.
In addition to fading De Sousa, I will also take a stroll down Narrative Street with a bet on Brown to win Group 25 at +250. I don’t think it’s stupendous value, but this group is wide open with De Sousa leading the odds a luke-warm favorite.
At +250 you only need Brown to win Group 25 ~28.6% of the time and I think he ticks that box against this caliber of competition. Perhaps I’m biting into the storyline too much, but betting is supposed to be fun, after all.
PDC Home Tour Night 25 Betting Picks
- Keegan Brown to win Group 25 (+250)
- Robert Thornton (+170) over Jose De Sousa
- Reece Robinson (+180) over Jose De Sousa
PDC Home Tour Betting Record: 25-55, -7.37 units
PDC Home Tour Group Winners
- Group 1: Jamie Lewis (+600)
- Group 2: Luke Woodhouse (+600)
- Group 3: Dave Chisnall (-134)
- Group 4: Geert Nentjes (+250)
- Group 5: Nick Kenny (+450)
- Group 6: Ryan Searle (+180)
- Group 7: Jelle Klaasen (+200)
- Group 8: Jonny Clayton (+130)
- Group 9: Martijn Kleermaker (+350)
- Group 10: Nathan Aspinall (-177)
- Group 11: Mike van Duivenbode (+300)
- Group 12: Max Hopp (+175)
- Group 13: Carl Wilkinson (+450)
- Group 14: Chris Dobey (-118)
- Group 15: Darren Webster (+175)
- Group 16: Jeff Smith (+225)
- Group 17: Damon Heta (+163)
- Group 18: Stephen Bunting (+100)
- Group 19: Glen Durrant (-121)
- Group 20: Ryan Murray (+500)
- Group 21: Rob Cross (-150)
- Group 22: Jesus Noguera (+800)
- Group 23: Daniel Larsson (+800)
- Group 24: Jamie Hughes (+240)
PDC Home Tour Darts Tournament Rules and Format
- If you’re unfamiliar with the rules of darts, click here.
- The tournament will feature 32 groups of four players who will play a round robin to determine a group winner.
- One group plays per day, for 32 days in a row. Yes, 32 days in a row.
- All group-stage matches are best-of-9 legs and two points will be awarded for a win. If there is a tie at the top of standings, the first tiebreaker will be leg difference.
- After the 32-day group stage, the winners will advance to the second phase of the competition. I’m assuming that means a single-elimination, bracket-style tournament. But, the PDC website didn’t go any further than that.
- The action will begin at 2:30 p.m. ET (7:30 p.m. local time) each night and stream on PDC.tv, free of charge.
- The first 20 groups have been announced, along with the order of play, though the PDC has yet to confirm the remaining competitors.