2021 Oscar Nomination Odds: Who Is Favored To Win Best Picture, Actor, Actress & More Academy Awards

2021 Oscar Nomination Odds: Who Is Favored To Win Best Picture, Actor, Actress & More Academy Awards article feature image
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Xinhua/Li Rui via Getty Images. Pictured: The Oscar statue outside of the Dolby Theatre in 2020.

  • Academy Award nominations are out! Find out how the betting market is handicapping the major categories.
  • We've outlined the latest Oscar odds for Best Picture, Best Actor, Best Actress and more below.

Note: This story has been updated to reflect the official Oscar nominations released on Monday morning.


The 2021 Academy Awards, which usually take place in February, were delayed because of the COVID-19 pandemic. As such, nominations for the 93rd iteration of Hollywood’s Biggest Night made a late mid-March debut with the awards show set to take place on April 25 at the Dolby Theatre in Hollywood.

Below are betting odds for the Academy Awards as of March 15 and via European sportsbook Betfair.


New to betting? Favorites have a minus (-) sign and the number indicates the money you would need to risk to win $100, whereas underdogs have a plus (+) sign while that number indicates the money you would win for every $100 bet.

Example: The Trial of the Chicago 7 is a +550 underdog for Best Picture, which means you would net a $550 profit on a $100 bet if it wins. Learn more here.


Best Picture

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Nomadland -303 75.2%
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +550 15.4%
Promising Young Woman +900 10%
Minari +1200 7.7%
Mank +1400 6.7%
Judas and the Black Messiah +1600 5.9%
The Sound of Metal +5000 1.9%
The Father +6600 1.5%

Best Director

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Chloe Zhao (Nomadland) -588 85.5%
David Fincher (Mank) +650 13.3%
Lee Isaac Chung (Minari) +1200 7.7%
Emerald Fennell (Promising Young Woman) +1400 6.7%
Thomas Vinterberg (Another Round) +2000 4.8%
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Best Actor

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Chadwick Boseman (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) -1425 93.5%
Anthony Hopkins (The Father) +750 11.7%
Riz Ahmed (The Sound of Metal) +1200 7.7%
Steven Yuen (Minari) +2000 4.8%
Gary Oldman (Mank) +2500 3.8%

Best Actress

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Carey Mulligan (Promising Young Woman) -110 52.4%
Andra Day (The United States Vs. Billie Holiday) +333 23.1%
Frances McDormand (Nomadland) +400 20%
Vanessa Kirby (Pieces of a Woman) +600 14.3%
Viola Davis (Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom) +1000 9.1%

How do I interpret betting odds? At +400 odds, Frances McDormand has a 20% implied probability to win Best Actress for her performance in Nomadland. Convert more using our Betting Odds Calculator.


Best Supporting Actor

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Daniel Kaluuya (Judas and the Black Messiah) -400 80%
Sacha Baron Cohen (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) +300 25%
Leslie Odom Jr. (One Night in Miami) +500 16.7%
Paul Raci (The Sound of Metal) +1400 6.7%
Lakeith Stanfield (Judas and the Black Messiah) +2000 4.8%

Best Supporting Actress

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Maria Bakalova (Borat Subsequent Moviefilm) +225 30.1%
Youn Yuh-jung (Minari) +250 28.6%
Glenn Close (Hillbilly Elegy) +300 25%
Amanda Seyfried (Mank) +550 15.4%
Olivia Colman (The Father) +600 14.3%

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Best Original Screenplay

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
The Trial of the Chicago 7 -161 61.7%
Promising Young Woman +120 45.5%
Minari +900 10%
Sound of Metal +2000 4.8%
Judas and the Black Messiah +2000 4.8%

Best Adapted Screenplay

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Nomadland -400 80%
The Father +350 22.2%
One Night In Miami +700 12.5%
Borat Subsequent Film +2000 4.8%
The White Tiger +2000 4.8%

Best International Feature

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Another Round (Denmark) -277 73.5%
Quo Vadis, Aida? (Bosnia and Herzegovina) +300 25%
Collective (Romania) +600 14.3%
Better Days (Hong Kong) +1200 7.7%
The Man Who Sold His Skin (Tunisia) +1800 5.3%

Best Documentary Feature

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Time -125 55.6%
Collective +200 33.3%
Crip Cramp +650 13.3%
My Octopus Teacher +800 11.1%
The Mole Agent +2000 4.8%

Best Animated Feature

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Soul -588 85.5%
Wolfwalkers +500 16.7%
Onward +1400 6.7%
Over The Moon +2000 4.8%
A Shaun the Sheep Movie: Farmageddon +2500 3.9%

Best Animated Short

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
If Anything Happens I Love You -120 54.7%
Genius Loci +200 33.3%
Opera +350 22.2%
Burrow +800 11.1%
Yes People +2000 4.8%

Best Cinematography

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Nomadland -278 73.5%
Mank +188 34.7%
News of the World +1000 9.1%
Judas and the Black Messiah +1200 7.7%
The Trial of the Chicago 7 +1600 5.9%

Best Costume Design

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom -161 61.7%
Mank +300 25%
Emma +400 20%
Pinocchio +1600 5.9%
Mulan +2000 4.8%

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom -278 73.5%
Hillbilly Elegy +300 25%
Mank +600 14.3%
Pinocchio +1400 6.7%
Emma +1600 5.9%

Best Original Song

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Speak Now (One Night in Miami) -278 73.5%
Io Sì (Seen) (The Life Ahead) +150 40%
Husavik (Eurovision Song Contest) +1000 9.1%
Hear My Voice (The Trial of the Chicago 7) +1200 7.7%
Fight for You (Judas and the Black Messiah) +1400 6.7%

Best Visual Effects

Nominee Odds Implied Prob.
Tenet -333 77%
The Midnight Sky +250 28.6%
Mulan +1000 9.1%
The One and Only Ivan +1800 5.3%
Love and Monsters +2000 4.8%

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