Oscar Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions, Odds: Women Talking Favored, But Is There A Live Underdog?

Oscar Best Adapted Screenplay Predictions, Odds: Women Talking Favored, But Is There A Live Underdog? article feature image

Jeff Kravitz/FilmMagic. Pictured: Women Talking writer and director Sarah Polley

Best Adapted Screenplay Nominees & Odds

Odds via FanDuel and as of March 12

NomineeOddsImplied Probability
Women Talking-25071.43%
All Quiet on the Western Front+18035.71%
Glass Onion: A Knives Out Mystery+23004.17%
Top Gun Maverick+28003.45%

Collin Wilson: In case you missed it, Top Gun Maverick is better then Top Gun. That is a statement not made easily about sequels unless you hover in the rarified air of The Empire Strikes Back, The Godfather II, Aliens or The Dark Knight.

Tom Cruise returns and the love interest upgrade button is hit with Jennifer Connelly, both still rocking as much swagger as the 1990 version of themselves. The story plot with Goose and Iceman come full circle as a new generation of BOB and Hangman are sure to get a third movie out of the franchise. 

To come down from the fanboy poster painted in the paragraph above, this is the Academy Awards and not a Nickelodeon slime special. There were no nominations in the major categories outside of Best Picture, but in the areas of Best Sound and Best Adapted Screenplay the movie hailed in nominations.

Do not forget the movie sat through a two year delay thanks to COVID-19; as Tom Cruise noted that a theatrical viewing was the only way to consume a second scoop of our hero. Per Rotten Tomatoes, this movie has an audience and critics score that left viewers salivating with love. In similar fashion to Ford v Ferrari, the movie could pull a few more categories than it deserves.

Best Sound is priced properly considering the euphoric mix of canyon diving in a Super Hornet and sweaty flag football on a Coronado beach. The -400 for in Best Sound is not just bettable to -600, but worthy of an Oscar parlay card. The next question is where can Maverick strike hot on a longshot category?

For Best Adapted Screenplay, the odds-on favorite is Women Talking, taken from a 2018 Miriam Toews novel. There is no doubt in the eyes of experts, editors and super fans from Gold Derby that Women Talking is first with a strong surge from All Quiet on the Western Front for this category.

Don’t tell that to Captain Pete Mitchell, who can hit a three-meter target with a bogey on the tail just as well as Luke Skywalker in a Death Star trench. This longshot play is certainly worth no more than couch change, but the emotional play of the night is that Top Gun gets on stage in an underdog scenario.

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