U.S. Open: Have the Odds Changed Throughout the Year?

U.S. Open: Have the Odds Changed Throughout the Year? article feature image

The odds of a bet winning will tell you what the implied probability is of that event happening. Our betting odds calculator allows you to plug in any odds and will give you the implied probability of that event occurring.

The U.S. Open has been a staple in the golf world for years. This tournament is known for long holes, thick rough, and undulated greens. This is truly a test for the world's best golfers. What makes this tournament unique is that YOU can play in it!

Well, kind of. You must be talented enough to qualify through various tournaments leading up to the main event. However, if you aren’t lucky enough to play in this Open, you can have just as much fun betting on the tournament and watching from home!

2023 U.S. Open

This year, the U.S. Open will be hosted at the North Course at Los Angeles Country Club (LACC). This is the first time LACC has hosted an event of this caliber, and early reports say that the course is looking tough. Historically, winners of the U.S. Open have been the biggest hitters on the tour. The recent list of winners includes names like Jon Rahm, Bryson DeChambeau, Brooks Koepka, and Dustin Johnson.

Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka both have a Major Tournament win under their belts this season, while Bryson DeChambeau and Dustin Johnson have struggled in the marquee events. Let’s take a look at how past performance in the 2023 season has shaped the odds for this year’s U.S. Open. 

Odds Movement and the Causes: Scottie Scheffler

One of the biggest names in golf this year has been Scottie Scheffler. Week in and week out, Scottie seems to have no longer than +1000 odds to win any golf tournament he plays in. On Dec. 12, 2022, Scheffler’s implied probability to win the U.S. Open was 7.7%, equivalent to +1200. Fast forward to June 11: His probability is now 11.8%, or +750.

This probability increase is almost certainly due to his dominance this season. Scheffler has tallied two PGA Tour wins this season and one runner-up finish. Additionally, his 10 top-10 finishes make him a clear front-runner for Player of the Year. He has tallied positive strokes gained in every tournament this year, and this is reflected in his U.S. Open odds.

Brooks Koepka: From Zero to Hero

If you watched “Full Swing,” then you are aware of the issues Koepka faced before he joined LIV last season. If you thought he would never see the winner’s circle again, you probably weren’t alone. It was clear that Brooks was battling something mentally and physically, and this was emphasized in the documentary. 

On Dec. 19, 2022, Brooks was +4000 to win the U.S. Open. From that point on, the odds only got shorter. The movement can be attributed to a variety of factors. His T2 finish at the Masters was the highest amongst LIV golfers, and of course, there was his impressive victory at the PGA Championship. He also has a LIV victory in Orlando, adding to his impressive 2023 resume. 

Brooks Koepka’s odds to win the U.S. Open are now +1200.

Is Rickie Back?

In 2014, Rickie Fowler finished in the top 5 of every Major, but he has yet to win one. In the years after accomplishing that feat, Rickie has had troubles on the golf course. His errant drives and inconsistent putting caused him to plummet in the World Golf Rankings. Fast forward to 2023, and Rickie has switched his swing coach and caddie. He now seems poised to catch that first elusive Major championship.

Fowler had a mere 0.5% (+20000) probability of winning the U.S. Open on Dec. 19. Since then he has placed in the top 20 on six separate occasions, and in two of those, he placed in the top 10. He has only posted one tournament with negative strokes gained, meaning he is consistently playing better than the average golfer in the field. While his probability now is only 1.2% (+6000), it is hard to ignore that he has nearly doubled his probability since the beginning of the season. 

A graph showing the probability changes for a few PGA Tour golfers to win the U.S. Open.
Probability in % to win the U.S. Open

How to Bet on the U.S. Open

Whether you are an avid bettor or casual fan, the PGA Tour has had something for you this year. “Full Swing” was a huge hit, LIV drama seems to be never-ending, and names like Jason Day and Rickie Fowler have risen back to prominence. If you are an Action Network reader, odds are you have probably benefited from Jason Sobel or Matt Vincezi’s picks! 

Every sportsbook will allow you to bet on the winner of the U.S. Open. You can check out our collection of sportsbook reviews and claim your new user bonus for which book you choose! Users in Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, New Jersey, and Iowa can take advantage of our bet365 bonus code and claim up to $200 in bonus bets ($365 in Iowa) when you sign up and wager $1!

If you are looking for more U.S. Open betting content, we have you covered:

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