Adon’s 2019 British Open Longshots Betting Guide: Which Sleepers Should You Target?

Credit:

Ian Rutherford, USA Today Sports. Pictured: Shane Lowry

  • The 2019 Open Championship begins on Thursday, July 18 at Royal Portrush in Northern Ireland.
  • Adon S. highlights four longshots that have betting value for this year's final major.

Major Championships provide a great opportunity to wager on proven winners at phenomenal odds thanks to the incredible depth of talent at the top of the odds market.

While Brooks Koepka, Rory McIlroy and the rest of the world’s best golfers dominate the conversation in the lead up to the tournament, you shouldn’t disregard the talent further down the odds board.

When betting on longshots it’s usually a best practice to place a top-10 or top-20 bet on the player you’re backing as those bets still offer great value even if your dark horse contends for a title but comes up just short.

I’ve settled on four longshots at Royal Portrush. Each of them is a proven winner and they have two major championships between them. In addition to these sleepers, I’ve also played two guys near the top of the board — Patrick Cantlay (35-1) and Jason Day (40-1).

Note: If you are looking for my usual First-Round Leader betting guide, be sure to check my Twitter later this evening. I am waiting for the most up-to-date forecast for Thursday before settling on any picks. The Open Championship is perhaps the most weather-influenced major and can provide a significant draw bias, especially with the drawn out tee times due to The Opens tradition of teeing off only from the first tee.

Shane Lowry

Odds: 66-1

Frequent friend of this space, Shane Lowry, hasn’t disappointed despite finishing eight places out of the Top 20 at the US Open, after his Top-10 finish at the PGA Championship.

The Irishman has had success on links courses, including a win at the Irish Open as an amateur. Shane is a known “mudder” who is perhaps at his best in bad weather conditions. His resume speaks for itself as Lowry has four wins worldwide and will look to continue his resurgence this season back on the links where it all started for him.

Patrick Reed

Odds: 80-1

This is a crazy number for a former Masters champion who is a proven closer when his game is on. And don’t tell the oddsmakers, but it seems like Reed’s game is back on. He has gained 12.4 strokes with his approach over his last two starts per Fantasy National.

This is a significant number when you consider it has been his ball-striking that has held him back since winning at Augusta. You won’t have to worry about this Texan in windy conditions if he is striking the ball well (I love watching him flight his golf ball into the wind every year in San Antonio).

Reed has always been known as one of the best scramblers on tour and the links-style tracks of the British Open allow for his imagination around the greens to shine.

Eddie Pepperell

Odds: 80-1

Long regarded as a “links expert,” Eddie’s growth both on and off the course has led to increased exposure. He finished tied for third at this year’s Players Championship and put together a legendary final round at last year’s Open Championship to finish T6 despite admitting to being hungover.

Pepperell is one of the world’s best golfers when it is windy and has earned numerous top-5 finishes at the Irish Open, Scottish Open, Qatar Masters and the British Masters — all of which take place on links-style courses.

Danny Willett

Odds: 125-1

After his T12 at the U.S. Open at Pebble Beach, I will continue to ride the coattails of the former Masters Champion. I think Willett is in the midst of a career resurgence after battling injury problems.

Willett finally started showing signs of life last summer before winning again at the European Tour’s final event of the 2018 season. Willett performs best on tough tracks in poor conditions and a return to the UK where he has had a lot of success makes for a lay-up wager at triple-digit odds.

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