Given it's place on the schedule — between The Players Championship and WGC-Match Play — you'd think the 2019 Valspar Championship would have a weaker field, that's not the case.
Dustin Johnson (+550) is the betting favorite, but Jon Rahm (+1000), Jason Day (+1000), Sergio Garcia (+1600) and Webb Simpson (+1800) are not too far behind.
The tournament takes place on the Copperhead Course at Innisbrook resort in Palm Harbor, Fla.
Here are our staff's favorite bets for the weekend:
Jason Sobel
Kevin Kisner/Brandt Snedeker/Jason Kokrak: Top-5 Finish (+1000)
This week’s favorite bet is really three bets and I’m just hoping one of ‘em pays off — anything else is gravy.
I really like the mid-tier plays of Kisner, Snedeker and Kokrak this week. Not sure they’ll each contend for the title, but I do think at least one of them will be up there.
Since we can get each of these three at +1000 for a top-five finish, the bet is to place one unit apiece. Quick math tells us that if just one of them cashes, it’s still a pretty nice profit.
And if more than one does? Well, like I said: It’s just gravy.
Josh Perry
Jim Furyk Top 20
I’m going to back to the top-20 well again.
Furyk has finished in the top 20 in three of his last four starts, including a runner-up finish last week.
He’s also been in the top 20 in six of his last eight starts at Innisbrook. Just going to keep it simple here and find the player in good form with a good course history and see if those results can continue.
Justin Bailey
Sung-Jae Im (-170) over Ollie Schniederjans
I normally don’t like to lay this much juice on a head-to-head matchup, but Copperhead rewards good ball striking and Schniederjans does not excel at that. Over his past 50 rounds, he ranks 128th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 108th in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Meanwhile, Im ranks 10th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 17th in Strokes Gained: Approach in the same timeframe, per Fantasy National.
Additionally, golfers are primarily going to get their birdie opportunities from the par 5s, and Im also has the edge in that category, averaging -5.3 adjusted strokes on par 5s compared to -3.7 to Schneiderjans over the past 75 weeks, per the FantasyLabs Player Models.
Drew "The Sleeze" Stoltz
Kevin Na (-145) over Charl Schwartzel
Na hasn't been spectacular this year, but he has been very consistent in making cuts(7 of 9). On the other hand, Schwartzel has been a Jekyll and Hyde, with only three made cuts in eight starts.
While not flashy, Na has made a living being a guy who plays nearly every weekend, and when he gets hot can pop up and contend. Schwartzel ranks 131st in GIR percentage this year and don't look for that to turn around this week at the difficult Innisbrook layout. If you like, you can get Na -1.5 strokes which moves the money line to +100.
