Memorial Tournament Betting Guide: Perry’s Top Picks For Muirfield Village

Credit:

Gregory Shamus/Getty Images. Pictured: Patrick Reed

Jul 15, 2020, 04:30 PM EDT
  • Josh Perry breaks down his betting preview for the 2020 Memorial Tournament ahead of Round 1 on Thursday.
  • Find odds, Perry's favorite sleeper picks and longshot bets as well as analysis of the favorites below.

Sunday served as a classic reminder for golf bettors. No lead is safe.

Up three with three holes to play, it looked like Justin Thomas was on his way to a victory at the 2020 Workday Charity Open. A couple of loose bogeys later and he’s on the wrong end of a playoff.

We saw similar scenarios almost unfold with Dustin Johnson and Bryson DeChambeau in the previous weeks, but those guys were able to collect themselves to close the show. Regardless, even when the big names do win, it’s rarely easy.

On another day, Thomas would have beat pretty much anyone in the sport. But Collin Morikawa found that birdie on 17 and matched Thomas’ bomb on the first playoff hole with one of his own to rightfully claim the title.

It was just another reminder to always enjoy the ones that break your way.

The Course

We’re back at Muirfield Village for the second week in a row and if the Workday Charity Open showed us anything, it was to target the elite ball-strikers.

Muirfield Village usually favors players who blend a good driver with elite iron play and that’s what we saw play out last week.

This week we should see faster greens and the rough should be thicker, so that should put an even premium on accuracy with the approach.

I took a gamble with some bombers last week, thinking a little less rough could help them, but that strategy failed miserably.

So I’ll revert back to the old method of targeting good, accurate tee balls and pinpoint precision on the approach.

The Favorites

This week is highlighted by the return of Tiger Woods, who will play for the first time on TOUR since the shutdown. His number opened as high at +2800 ($10 bet wins $280), but doesn’t offer much value given the form many of the top players have displayed this past month.

Last time we saw Bryson DeChambeau he was hoisting a trophy in Detroit after his win at the Rocket Mortgage Classic. DeChambeau didn’t play last week but that didn’t stop most bookmakers opening him at the top of the odds. DeChambeau opened as a slight favorite at +1000 but he’s got company at the top in the form of Justin Thomas (+1100) and Rory McIlroy (+1200).

Defending champion Patrick Cantlay, who finished T7 at the Workday, is right behind them at +1400 and Dustin Johnson, fresh off a win at the Travelers, isn’t far behind at +1600.

If I had to pick someone from this group I’d lean towards Thomas. He and Morikawa found a way to really separate themselves from a good field here last week.

Additonally, most of the elites have inconsistent histories at Muirfield Village. They all have a few top-10 finishes peppered in with some missed cuts.

That tells me it really seems to be a form course and I know Thomas is on his game. He also has the best approach game of the bunch.

Collin Morikawa, Viktor Hovland and Jon Rahm are next and check in around +2200 depending on the sportsbook.

Hideki Matsuyama, a former winner here, and Brooks Koepka are also in this range at around +2500. Koepka went off at +1600 last week but he missed the cut by a shot. Bookmakers responded by serving him with the biggest odds drop from this group.

Webb Simpson and Xander Schauffele round out the top tier and are in the same vicinity as Tiger at around +2800.

The Mid-Tier

As usual, I’ll start my betting card here this week.

I took a chance on some under-priced bombers in this range last week and it blew up in my face, so I’ll go back to what’s worked at this course in the past.

The first golfer I’m going to back is Abraham Ancer (+5000).

Ancer doesn’t have a high finish in his two career starts here but he’s made both cuts. That being said, Ancer has improved a lot this season.

He’s been solid off the tee and his approach game ranks near the top of the list since the TOUR resumed play. Ancer’s putter hasn’t been great, but history shows it doesn’t need to be to contend at Muirfield Village.

Pick: Abraham Ancer (+5000)

Bet Now at DraftKings

CO, NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

Next, I’ll take a shot with Patrick Reed at +5500, which is more of a talent play at a good number than anything else.

Reed, who has a top-10 finish and has made the cut in all five of his appearances at this track, played the weekend at the Workday, but a better field caused his number to nearly double from week to week.

When Reed is on, the field strength doesn’t matter. He’s shown he can win any event regardless of the talent around him. So when he slips into this range, he’s always worth a gamble.

Pick: Patrick Reed (+5500)

My last play in this range will be Paul Casey (+7500).

Casey doesn’t play here much, but he fits the overall profile of the players who can succeed here as he’s a decent driver of the ball and his irons are usually in good shape.

Casey made the cut and finished in the middle of the pack in his only start since play resumed, but he isn’t someone who needs a lot of starts to maintain form.

Pick: Paul Casey (+7500)

Bet Now at FanDuel

NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

Longshots

The cream rose to the top of this field last week and even though The Memorial has had some longshot winners like William McGirt and David Lingmerth in the past, it’s tough to expect too much from players down here.

That being said, I will take a shot with Corey Conners at +15000.

Conners has the basic tee-to-green skill-set I am looking for and he has made the cut both times he’s played this course, including last week.

As is often the case with Conners, his ball-striking was great last week but his short game was not. Hopefully the faster greens and deeper rough will bring the field closer to his level on, and around, the putting surface.

Pick: Corey Conners (+15000)

Bet Now at FanDuel

NJ, PA, IN, WV only.

The Memorial Card

  • Abraham Ancer +5000 (.66 units)
  • Patrick Reed +5500 (.6 units)
  • Paul Casey +7500 (.44 units)
  • Corey Conners +15000 (.22 units)

Total Stake: 1.92 units

 

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