16 Rocket Mortgage Bets To Make Right Now: Outrights, Sleeper Picks, Props & Matchups
Elsa, Getty Images. Pictured: Kevin Na
- Getting your picks in before Round 1 of the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic tees off Thursday?
- Our staff is here to help by breaking down 16 (!) of their favorite bets for this week's PGA Tour event.
- Find their favorite outright winners, sleeper bets, prop betting picks, matchups and more for Detroit below.
The PGA TOUR is in Detroit this week for the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic and the betting board is an absolute humdinger.
After three straight extraordinary fields plenty of star players are understandably taking this week off and that has opened the door for Bryson DeChambeau to vault to the top of the odds as a +650 ($10 bet wins $65) favorite.
Bettors will remember the inaugural Rocket Mortgage as a clean sweep for the sportsbooks after Nate Lashley, a Wednesday alternate, went wire-to-wire to lift the trophy. Lashley was added to the field so late that he didn’t have pre-tournament odds and he wasn’t included in DFS pools. Go figure.
Will we see another out-of-nowhere winner at Detroit Golf Club on Sunday?
Here are our favorite outright bets, sleeper picks, prop bets and matchups for the 2020 Rocket Mortgage Classic:
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Brandt Snedeker (+4500)
Considering the top four finishers on last year’s inaugural Rocket Mortgage leaderboard ranked an average of 397th in the world, I can’t bring myself to take any chalk this week. In fact, I won’t bet anyone with odds better than 40/1, but I can’t pass the value here on Sneds.
He’s won on three different Donald Ross-designed courses in his career and finished top-10 at three others, including last year’s top-five here at Detroit GC.
That’s an obvious trend which I could certainly see continuing this week.
Kevin Na (+4000)
Na is coming off a fifth-place finish at the Travelers last week and I think he should fit in well here if this year’s Rocket Mortgage plays similar to the inaugural event in 2019.
Last year’s leaderboard featured plenty of shorter hitters with solid iron games and good putters and Na checks those boxes.
I like Na’s chances to contend with most of the big names sitting this week out.
Adam Hadwin +7000
I love Bryson, he’s the No. 1 golfer in my model by quite a bit, but man I can’t pay 6/1 on a golfer in a PGA TOUR field. He’d have to be playing against 150 me’s to warrant that.
And that’s the rub with the whole field: A lot of guys are inflated because of the field, which means the very top of the board is going to be overvalued while the mid and lower-tier are undervalued because they weren’t adjusted enough.
I like Hadwin in general and especially at this course and this price. He’s been fine the last couple of weeks but hasn’t had the high-end finishes almost solely because of the short game, which should turn around. The ball-striking has been as excellent as ever for the Canadian. He has one of the better all-around games in the field but is priced as a 1-percenter. I’ll take it.
Doc Redman +4000
Redman would have been priced closer to 60-1 if not for the 63 he shot at the Travelers on Sunday.
It is safe to say the former Clemson golfer is firing on all cylinders with consecutive top-21 finishes at the Travelers and Heritage.
Although course history is light at the Detroit Golf Club, Redman finished second in last year’s Rocket Mortgage Classic.
Kevin Chappell (+20000)
We haven’t heard much from Chappell lately, as he’s been plagued with injuries on and off during the last couple of years.
Now healthy, I watched him play early Sunday on PGA TOUR Live’s streaming feed, as he finished up the Travelers Championship with a fourth consecutive round under par. Competing with a stand bag and UCLA hat, he’s got a me-against-the-world vibe that I love, just oozing confidence.
Throw in the fact that one player told me Detroit GC correlates nicely with Congressional — where Chappell finished T-3 at the 2011 U.S. Open — and I love him as a sneaky play this week.
Scott Stallings (+11000)
I jumped on Stallings last week after his opening round and he was able to work his way inside the top 10. His approach game was in good shape through all four rounds and the putter started to warm up as the week went along.
I’ll go back to him in this range and see if he can get into contention at a big number.
Wesley Bryan (+22500)
The YouTube trick shot star has a win on the PGA TOUR and is more talented than this number indicates. But perhaps more importantly, his game looks good right now.
He’s been dialed in with his wedges over the two tournaments since the COVID hiatus, and the short game — typically a strength for him — should come back.
He’s been birdie hunting lately, and if the short game comes around to minimize the bogeys, he can absolutely go low and contend here.
Brian Stuard +10000
As Bryan Mears wrote in his latest article, there were a few metrics that stood out at Detroit Golf Club last year — scrambling, recent driving accuracy and missed-cut rate.
There a handful of golfers with good odds that fit that mold this week, notably Mark Hubbard, Rory Sabbatini, Scott Stallings, Lucas Glover and Brian Stuard.
In the case of Stuard, he finished fifth at the Detroit Golf Club last year in the inaugural Rocket Mortgage Classic and he’s coming off a top-20 finish at the Travelers after he posted 68 or better in each round. Scrambling played a big part of Stuard’s finish and he gained +2.7 strokes with his approach for the tournament.
Winner to Birdie the 72nd Hole: Yes (+500)
Usually, my favorite props are more along the lines of top-10/20 bets, especially where there’s a little value. I tend to think of these types of scoring props as sucker bets, too often controlled by the moment, with too much variance. But … during his win last year, Nate Lashley birdied the 474-yard par-4 closing hole twice in four rounds.
We’re expecting the course to be toughened up this week, with fairways pinched a bit and thicker rough, so we might not see 25-under win again, but it’ll hardly be U.S. Open-tough. With that in mind, I love getting 5/1 odds on something that happened 50% of the time for last year’s winner, even if he didn’t birdie this hole on Sunday.
Kevin Na Top-20 Finish (+175)
I’ll be getting a lot down on Na this week.
As I mentioned in my preview, Detroit Golf Club is a course that should highlight Na’s strengths, which are his iron and putter.
Na tends to fly under the radar, but he’s been playing some of the best golf of his career over the past year.
Rory Sabbatini Top-40 Finish (-110)
The lesser-known Rory on TOUR, Sabbatini’s game looks excellent right now.
He’s coming off top-25 finishes at Colonial and Harbour Town, and most importantly the ball-striking, which I think is the most predictive part of a golfer’s game, was on point. He finished both weekends with a Sunday 65 and has momentum coming into this weaker field.
And oh yeah, he finished third here last year at the inaugural Detroit GC event, so he should be comfortable with the course. I’ll take nearly even money for him to be in the top-40 by Sunday.
Viktor Hovland Top-20 Finish (+120)
Not much needs to be said about Hovland, who has played exceptional golf since the TOUR resumed play.
Hovland has finished 23rd or better in each of the past three weeks and ended up 13th in this event last year.
Almost every part of Hovland’s game is clicking, but his putter continues to let him down as he’s finished outside the top-47 in Strokes Gained: Putting at all three tournaments since the TOUR came back.
Patrick Reed (-106) over Tyrrell Hatton
Three months after undergoing surgery on his right wrist, Hatton returned in February and finished T-6 at the WGC-Mexico Championship, then won the Arnold Palmer Invitational and, after another three-month break due to the schedule shutdown, finished T-3 at the RBC Heritage.
Everyone is going crazy for Hatton now, especially since his ball-striking numbers are through the roof, but that just might mean he’s overvalued. Reed owns a nice history on Donald Ross courses, including a T-5 at this one last year. He’s also coming off a final-round 64 at the Travelers Championship, which should provide some momentum moving forward.
There aren’t a ton of matchups amongst the bigger names that I like this week, but this one feels like a solid play.
Webb Simpson (+140) over Bryson DeChambeau
Odds via the Westgate SuperBook
I know Bryson is getting a lot of love and is the favorite this week but having Webb as this big of a dog seems like a bit of an overreaction.
Simpson is in the best form of his career and, even though Bryson has been close these last couple weeks, he’s still trying to iron out some things with his wedge game.
Obviously if Bryson goes out and puts it all together, then this will look bad. But Simpson is one of the more consistent players on TOUR and there’s no reason to think he can’t bring that form from two weeks ago into this event.
Rickie Fowler (+115) over Hideki Matsuyama
OK, I get it. Rickie hasn’t been very good over the two tournaments he’s played since the COVID hiatus. But to be fair, the first one was just a really atrocious short-game outing — usually a big strength for Rickie — and the other his game was fine and he was on the line. It wasn’t as bad as it seems, and he’s obviously incredibly talented.
Further, what did we see from Hideki’s game that gives us that much more confidence? He played just once and was even worse than Rickie. He’s just getting the bump since he played pretty well here at Detroit last season.
I honestly don’t think either of these guys should comfortably be a favorite here, so I have no problem in that situation taking a +115 line.
Mark Hubbard (-135) over Chris Kirk
Odds via Circa Sportsbook
As stated above, recent missed cuts is an indicator of success at the Detroit Golf Club. That is a negative for Kirk, who has missed the number in eight of his last 10 PGA TOUR events. Kirk made the cut at Colonial but he finished 60th after carding a 75 in Round 4.
Hubbard has been on a different path in recent tournaments, making all three cuts and finishing as high as 33rd at the Heritage. Hubbard has posted top-25 numbers in recent scramble and driving accuracy, both of which were important factors at last year’s Rocket Mortgage.