You can't say that either of the first two winners since the PGA TOUR resumed play were truly sleepers.
Sure, Daniel Berger was hanging around +8000 for a brief moment before The Charles Schwab Challenge but he was bet down pretty quickly into the 50-1 range and was a pretty popular play in golf-speculating circles. And then last week we saw Webb Simpson, a very popular pick, win at +2800.
Don't get us wrong, those are great prices if you had them, but one of the great things about betting on the PGA TOUR is that there's always a chance that a true dark horse gets hot and takes down a tournament at triple-digit odds.
Another loaded field may make things tough for some of the golfers down the board, but that won't stop us from trying to pick one out. Here are our favorite sleeper picks for the 2020 Travelers Championship:
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Jason Sobel
Brendan Steele (+25000, $10 bet wins $2,500)
The term “sleeper” is so subjective in the betting world.
Is Abraham Ancer (+3300) still considered a sleeper? I don’t think so, not after how he’s played recently. What about Joaquin Niemann (+4000)? Nah, I don’t think he works, either. Joel Dahmen (+10000)? You could probably make a case for him, but I’m going to dig even deeper.
Steele is a course-horse type, meaning that once he starts playing well at one of ‘em, he usually repeats. At TPC River Highlands, he owns seven top-25 results in nine starts. I don’t mind sprinkling a little on him as a massive outright, but he’s got plenty of value as a top-10/20, FRL and DFS play.
Josh Perry
Doc Redman (+25000)
Redman struck the ball as well as anyone last week and simply couldn’t get his short game together. It was his best week with the irons by far this season and he’s been trending toward a high finish as he's gained strokes with his approach in nine events in 2020. Whatever was working prior to the hiatus, he’s been able to carry over the last two weeks.
Redman is not a great putter, but he does gain strokes in about half of his starts. It just comes down to lining up his current iron play with one of those solid putting weeks.
Bryan Mears
Ryan Moore (+14000)
It definitely seems like a week where another stud is going to win; a lot of these top golfers seem to be ramping up back into form quicker than maybe thought.
But let’s get to some sleepers anyway. For what it’s worth, I like a few of these lower-mid guys like Scottie Scheffler and Corey Conners. But let’s talk about Ryan Moore.
This is a ball-striking course, as I mentioned here, and Moore is third in the entire field behind Jim Furyk and Chez Reavie in driving accuracy. He also has excellent history here at River Highlands, finishing in the top-seven in three of his last seven visits. Something clearly catches his eye, and he’s been able to really nail fairways and greens, which is most of the battle here at this track.
I think he’s a fine bet to win — he’s cheaper than he should be — but on these sleepers, I like to find values and then bet more on top-20s (or 30s or 40s at DraftKings). Moore is over 10/1 to bank a top-10, which he’s clearly shown he can do if his game is on. That’s solid value.
Collin Wilson
Chris Stroud (+25000)
Looking for a longshot to roster in DFS, bet for a top-20 finish or take a punt on at a huge outright number?
Look no further than journeyman Chris Stroud, who had missed seven consecutive cuts until he finished inside the top-30 at the star-studded RBC Heritage.
Stroud's game looked good at Harbour Town — he finished inside the top-30 in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green — and he's got some decent course history with three top-20 finishes at TPC River Highlands.
I'll take some money out of my pocket for a cheap longshot in good form on a course that he likes.
