2021 Barracuda Championship Betting Odds, Picks, Predictions: 6 Golfers With Value at Old Greenwood
Andy Lyons/Getty Images. Pictured: Chez Reavie.
With the big names playing a WGC event this week, we're treated to one of our favorite alternate events of the year at the Barracuda Championship.
The lone, modified stableford scoring event on the calendar gives players near the FedEx Cup playoffs one last chance to lock down a TOUR card.
The Course
Old Greenwood is a Jack Nicklaus design and measures 7,390 yards for a par 71, but given the altitude, that effectively plays in the high 6,000's. I wouldn’t expect the players to find too much trouble here.
All the par 5's will be reachable for most of the field. There are also two par 4's that are drivable for the longer hitters.
Given how valuable an eagle is in this format, strokes gained off the tee with a lean toward accuracy and birdie-or-better percentage will be my starting points. Length will be key to create easy birdie opportunities, but the fairways are tree-lined on many holes, so players won’t be able to stray too far off the path. Water is also in play on six holes, so misplaced irons will be punished.
I’ll also give a slight edge to players more comfortable on Poa Annua greens that we typically see out west.
The Favorites
There's no real clear cut favorite this week. We have a quartet at the top between +1600 and +1800 with Branden Grace, Maverick McNealy, Gary Woodland and Emiliano Grillo. Of the four, Grace will draw a lot of attention. He was in contention here before a positive COVID test forced him to withdraw prior to the third round. He's also been in solid form with a couple of top 10s in the last couple months and does have a win this year in Puerto Rico.
Right behind them is Mito Pereira at +2000, who is fresh off an Olympic performance where he narrowly missed out on the bronze medal. Pereira also has some altitude pedigree, winning in Bogata, Colombia at over 8,000 feet during his Korn Ferry Tour run last year.
The Mid-Tier
We'll open here with Chez Reavie at +4000 on DraftKings. He's been inside the top 25 in four of his last seven starts, which is about as good as we'll find here. The approach game has been particularly solid of late. He's gained ground there in six straight events.
I'm going back to Bo Hoag here at +5500 on DraftKings. Hoag has worked his way into contention the past couple of weeks, but the putter has let him down. He's still playing as well as anyone in this field and put up a decent result a year ago on the course, finishing 29th. The West Coast may just be a more comfortable spot for him also. His lone Korn Ferry win came in Portland.
Next up, we'll back Brian Stuard at +5000 on BetMGM. Stuard is another guy who's just been playing well lately. He's finished top 15 or better in three straight events. The only hole in the game has been the driver, but hopefully with this course playing shorter at altitude, Stuard will be able to hold his own there and let the irons and putter go to work, which has been the source of his recent success.
I'll close out this range with Roger Sloan at +7000 on DraftKings. Sloan has struck the ball well the last couple weeks and has made the weekend in four straight events on tour. We've seen him putt well at times and hit the irons well at times. If he just lines those two up for a week, this is the type of event who could win.
The Longshots
I'm not going to miss a chance to back Davis Riley at 100/1 on BetMGM. Riley's form has been mediocre, but this format may favor his aggressive style. Riley tends to make plenty of birdies each week, but he usually tosses in a few bogeys to go along with them. With bogeys being less of a penalty in the stableford format than in stroke play, he could sneak up the leaderboard.
We'll close with the suddenly popular Michael Gellerman at 140/1 on Bet365. He's been on quite the heater with the irons gaining at least 3.5 strokes in five straight events. The putter has been non-existent though, but on Poa Annua greens, he's at least been field average for his career so far, so it's worth a shot at this price.
The Barracuda Card
- Chez Reavie +4000 (.83 units)
- Brian Stuard +5000 (.66 units)
- Bo Hoag +5500 (.6 units)
- Roger Sloan +7000 (.47 units)
- Davis Riley +10000 (.33 units)
- Michael Gellerman +14000 (.24 units)
Total Stake: 3.13 units
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