2021 Valero Texas Open Longshot Bets: Our Favorite Sleeper Picks at TPC San Antonio
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Ryder
- The Valero Texas Open has been a happy hunting ground for longshots in the past.
- Will we see another sleeper win at TPC San Antonio this week?
- Here are our favorite longshot bets for this week's PGA TOUR action:
Augusta may be looming on the horizon but there’s still business — and betting — to attend to before we head down Magnolia Lane.
The Valero Texas Open can be full of surprises. Featuring a wide-open field on a tricky course and the potential for some hijinks from Mother Nature, don’t be shocked if we see some funky stuff go down on TOUR this week. In fact, this has been a happy hunting ground for longshots in the past as the last two winners went off around 200/1. Will we see another triple-digit player cash in Texas this week?
Here are our favorite sleepers at TPC San Antonio:
Matthew NeSmith (+12500)
If there’s a player who can come close to replicating the Cinderella story of Corey Conners from two years ago (he qualified on Monday, then punched his ticket to Augusta six days later), it might be NeSmith, who grew up in North Augusta and from the age of 8 until he left for college, attended the tournament every year.
While bettors and DFS players know this, he’s been better this year than most golf fans probably realize, with three top-20s in nine starts and a T-36 at the Honda in his most recent start. This is a course where ball-strikers thrive and that’s the best part of NeSmith’s game.
Nick Taylor (+20000)
The last two winners of this event went off around +20000 and I think we may see another player from this range get the win this week in San Antonio. Nick Taylor certainly fits the bill there, and he seems to be rounding into form as he seeks his second career TOUR win.
The Canadian has gained more than four strokes on approach in each of the last two events he played, and one of those was over just two rounds in a missed cut at the Honda Classic. I am willing to take a shot that he can find a bit more consistency off the tee this week to put himself in position to take advantage of this great iron play and get opportunities to score around this course.
Cameron Champ (+11000)
While always a volatile play, Champ does offer a good deal of win equity. Bombers have typically fared well at TPC San Antonio as the past four winners of the Valero Texas Open have ranked 8th, 4th, 9th, 4th in Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
Champ comes into the event in poor form, but that hasn’t stopped previous winners of the Valero Texas Open in the past. Six of the past 10 winners of this event had finished 42nd or worse in their most recent start, including 4 missed cuts among those golfers.
While inconsistent, Champ has two PGA TOUR wins since 2018 and is the type of talent who can pop for a win from seemingly out of nowhere. TPC San Antonio seems like a really good spot for the 25 year old to earn his third TOUR victory.
John Huh (+8000)
Huh has had quite the resurgence in his age 30 season. He’s made eight of nine cuts with five top-21 finishes on the year. He’s also shown he can handle himself adequately at TPC San Antonio, making the weekend in five of his seven trips with a T-22 and runner up finish in that span.
He ranks 18th in this field in SG: Ball-Striking over his past 16 rounds, which is very strong for someone with 80/1 odds. Many of the top guys in this field will be looking ahead to Augusta, which is one week away, so it’s quite possible we see an unexpected winner this week. Huh has a nice combination of good form and good course history, making him a very attractive bet this week.
Sam Ryder (+10000)
His T2 at Corales arguably wasn’t as stressful as Rafael Campos’ because Ryder started the day outside the top 10 and closed with 67. In that context, it presents more as a bonus than a close call. With it coming on the heels of T8 at PGA National where he was fourth after a second-round 63 proves that the mild slide that weekend didn’t deter him in the Dominican Republic. He’s also surgical on approach and arrives having cashed in both previous trips to TPC San Antonio.
Doug Ghim (+8500)
This number is just too high for a player with this type of talent. Heading into Sunday in the star-studded field at the Players Championship, Doug Ghim was tied for 3rd place. An unfortunate final round score of 78 shot him out of contention, but he proved he has the talent to compete with the best. Coming off a missed cut at Honda, where he still gained over a full stroke on approach over the field, Ghim seems to be going overlooked. He has gained strokes on approach In 12 of his last 13 tracked events on tour, and seems primed for a breakout. Love the value in this number at 100:1.
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