We remain profitable in the placing markets, but we keep getting skunked in the outright market. We didn't have any exposure to Michael Thorbjornsen last week, but we did cash top 20 bets on Davis Thompson and Doug Ghim. Overall, it was an almost perfect break-even week.
We now turn our attention to the Wyndham Championship, which is the final event before the FedExCup Playoffs. This is the last chance for golfer to punch their ticket to the playoffs, as only the top 70 in the FedExCup standings will tee it up next week at the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
Let's take a look at my Wyndham Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Sedgefield Country Club.
Wyndham Championship Preview
This is the last full-field event of the season, as the FedExCup Playoffs are set to start next week. The Wyndham Championship has been a staple on the PGA TOUR for a long time, so we have plenty of data to work with when it comes to figuring out what type of golfers should play well at Sedgefield Country Club.
Let's talk about the course. Sedgefield Country Club is a Par 70 that measures 7,131 yards. While this is a tight course off the tee, it's certainly scoreable. Each of the last 4 winners at this event has been at least 18-under par. More often than not, this course is easier than TOUR average when it comes to par-adjusted difficulty each year.
The fairways at Sedgefield are narrow (28 yards wide) and tree-lined. With this being a short course, golfers don't need to hit driver as often as most PGA TOUR venues. In fact, the field only hit driver on 57% of non-Par 3 tee shots here last year, which is one of the lowest marks on TOUR. It doesn't mean the bombers can't succeed here (Cameron Young won last year), but the driver is a bit neutralized. It's more important to hit fairways than to be long off the tee.
The greens here are average in size (6,000 square feet) and feature pure bermudagrass. They should run at 12.5 on the stimpmeter, which is certainly on the faster side. The greens are typically easy to hit in regulation (72% last year), but scrambling is very difficult if golfers miss them. The scrambling success rate here last year was only 55%, well below the TOUR average.
The recipe this week is simple — hit fairways, be precise with irons, and make putts on these bermuda greens.
Wyndham Championship Predictions, Picks
As usual, let's take a look at my model probabilities compared to current market odds:
Aaron Rai to Win (+3300, BetMGM), Top 10 (+375, bet365), Top 20 (+180, bet365)
Even though Rai doesn't come into the event in the best of form, he grades out as the best outright value in my model.
He's 3rd overall and is currently listed as +3300 to win. Sedgefield Country Club is a perfect fit for his game. He's accurate off the tee, one of the best iron players in the field, and top 20 in my advanced metrics this week (Expected Strokes Gained: Approach and Expected Hole Performance).
He won this event in 2024 and won the PGA Championship earlier this year. He clearly knows how to win when he finds himself in contention, which wasn't the case earlier in his career.
Ben Kohles to Win (+6000, BetRivers), Top 10 (+600, bet365), Top 20 (+260, bet365)
Kohles has been in as good of form as anyone in the field over the last few months. He's rattled off 8 straight top 30 finishes with a win and a 3rd place finish during that stretch.
When it comes to course fit, there might not be a better course for Kohles. In this field over the last 6 months, he's 1st in Good Drive Percentage, 2nd in Strokes Gained: Approach, and 38th in Strokes Gained: Putting.
He's also top 5 in both of my advanced metrics this week (Expected Strokes Gained: Approach and Expected Hole Performance). If he plays as well as he projects, we could be in for a huge week.
Alex Fitzpatrick Top 10 (+450, bet365), Top 20 (+210, bet365)
The model says to bet Fitzpatrick outright this week, but I have a hard time seeing him win this event without any experience at Sedgefield Country Club. However, a top 10 and/or a top 20 shouldn't be too much to ask for.
After picking up a win on the DP World Tour, he came to America and won the team event with his brother. From that point on, he's been a top 20 machine on the PGA TOUR. More importantly, he's an incredible course fit for Sedgefield.
He's top 10 in this field in Good Drive Percentage and Strokes Gained: Approach, which is my favorite combination of stats this week.
Blades Brown Top 10 (+600, bet365), Top 20 (+340, FanDuel)
Brown has never played this event, but his form is as good as that of nearly anyone in the field. He's posted 5 straight top 25 finishes with back-to-back top 6 finishes.
We often label all of the young golfers on TOUR as bombers, but Brown is more accurate than long off the tee. That should really come in handy this week, as hitting fairways is paramount.
Brown is one of the best iron players in the field and is top 20 in Strokes Gained: Putting. I think the elite form continues this week.
Alex Smalley Top 20 (+300, Caesars)
The last bet of the week is a boring one, but hopefully it will be profitable.
Smalley's form has certainly tailed off compared to where it was a few months ago, but this seems like a good bounce-back spot for him. He's finished in the top 30 in 2 of his last 5 trips to Sedgefield, and he's a great fit statistically.
He hits a lot of fairways, he's a good iron player, and he has a nice short game. He's also more rested than most of the field, which could be a positive.
