2022 British Open Odds, Picks, Predictions: Jordan Spieth, 3 More Course Fits at St. Andrews

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The 2022 Open Championship returns to the birthplace of golf to play the 150th edition of the tournament.

The Old Course at St. Andrews has hosted the most major championships (29) of any course in the history of golf. The first major at St. Andrews took place in 1873. It's a par-72 that measures 7,297 yards, making it only 350 yards longer than it was over a century ago. The course still plays just about the same as it did since its inception, which is rare in today's game with all of the technological advancements.

There are 156 players in the field this week, with the top 70 and ties making it to the weekend. As expected, almost all of the world's top players will be in attendance this week, seeking a highly coveted Claret Jug.

As Jack Nicklaus once said, “If you’re going to be a player people will remember, you have to win The Open at St. Andrews."

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Past Winners at The Open Championship

• 2021: Collin Morikawa (-15)
• 2019: Shane Lowry (-15)
• 2018: Francesco Molinari (-8)
• 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
• 2016: Henrik Stenson (-20)
• 2015: Zach Johnson (-15)
• 2014: Rory McIlroy (-17)
• 2013: Phil Mickelson (-3)
• 2012: Ernie Els (-7)
• 2011: Darren Clarke (-5)
• 2010: Louis Oosthuizen (-16)

5 Key Stats For The Old Course at St. Andrews

Let's take a look at the five most important metrics at The Old Course at St. Andrews and determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds. This should give us a good starting point for building out a betting card.

Strokes Gained: Approach

The most important statistic this week is Strokes Gained: Approach. St. Andrews isn't overly long and golfers with all types of skillsets should be in play. The one statistic that golfers cannot compete without this week is strong approach play. The Old Course requires strategy, and players need to hit their spots.

Total Strokes Gained: Approach in past 24 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+26.5) (+900)
2. Xander Schauffele (+24.9) (+1200)
3. Max Homa (+24.3) (+4000)
4. Kevin Na (+23.8) (+13000)
5. Cameron Smith (+23.7) (+2800)

Strokes Gained: Par 4

The Old Course at St. Andrews has a unique layout with only two par 5s and two par 3s on the course. In order to capture the Claret Jug, players will have to play the fourteen par 4s efficiently.

Total Strokes Gained: Par 4 in past 24 rounds:

1. Rory McIlroy (+41.2) (+900)
2. J.T. Poston (+35.3) (+15000)
3. Will Zalatoris (+34.7) (+2800)
4. Tony Finau (+34.3) (+3500)
5. Justin Thomas (+34.1) (+1600)

Three-Putt Avoidance

The greens at St. Andrews are massive. Lag putting will be a major factor and golfers must keep three putts off the card if they want to contend.

Three-Putt Avoidance in past 24 rounds:

1. Tony Finau (+8.8) (+3500)
2. Talor Gooch (+8.6) (+10000)
3. Tyrrell Hatton (+8.0) (+4000)
4. Abraham Ancer (+7.1) (+13000)
5. Lucas Herbert (+6.8) (+18000)

Strokes Gained: Total (Windy Conditions)

Wind is always going to be a factor when playing in an Open Championship. Even if the wind speed doesn't get extremely high, it will still be a factor in club selection and execution.

“When it blows here, even the seagulls walk.” — Nick Faldo, who won at St. Andrews in 1990.

Total Strokes: Total (Windy Conditions) in past 24 rounds:

1. Justin Thomas (+61.4) (+1600)
2. Cameron Smith (+53.7) (+2800)
3. Joaquin Niemann (+46.9) (+5000)
4. Shane Lowry (+46.7) (+2200)
5. Sungjae Im  (+44.3) (+7000)

Strokes Gained: Putting

Good putters tend to win Open Championships at St. Andrews. Adding putting to the model will help to eliminate golfers who won't be able to hole enough putts to contend.

Strokes Gained: Putting in past 24 rounds:

1. Lucas Herbert (+24.1) (+18000)
2. Sam Burns (+23.4) (+4500)
3. Tyrrell Hatton (+17.9) (+4000)
4. Justin Rose (+15.4) (+6500)
5. Tommy Fleetwood (+15.2) (+3500)

Statistical Model

Below, I've reported overall model rankings using a combination of the six key statistical categories previously discussed.

These rankings are comprised of SG: APP (27%); SG: Putting (17%);SG: Par 4 (20%); SG: T2G Windy Conditions (17%) ; and Three-Putt Avoidance (17%)

1. Justin Thomas (+1600)
2. Xander Schauffele (+1200)
3. Cameron Smith (+2800)
4. Max Homa (+4000)
5. Keegan Bradley (+8000)
6. Scottie Scheffler (+1400)
7. Hideki Matsuyama (+5000)
8. Shane Lowry (+2200)
9. Tony Finau (+3500)
10. Sam Burns (+4500)
11. Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)
12. Will Zalatoris (+2800)
13. Rory McIlroy (+900)
14. Patrick Cantlay (+2000)
15. Tommy Fleetwood (+3500)
16. Adam Scott (+6500)
17. J.T. Poston (+15000)
18. Corey Conners (+8000)
19. Justin Rose (+6500)
20. Viktor Hovland (+5000)

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2022 Open Championship Best Bets

Jordan Spieth +1800 (BetMGM)

Jordan Spieth's Open Championship record is incredibly impressive. In 2015, he finished one shot back of a three-man playoff at St. Andrews. In five starts since then, he has a win and addition runner-up to go along with a ninth-place finish. He's arguably the best Open Championship player in the field.

Jordan Spieth is one of the most creative golfers in the history of the sport. He is a shot maker who knows how to use rolling slopes and hills to his advantage. His excellent lag-putting and ability to stick a wedge shot close to the hole are major reasons why he's done so well in links golf throughout his career.

Even when the 28-year-old has struggled over the past few years, he's seemed to always play well at the courses and events that he's historically excelled at. His tee to green game is strong enough this season to where some Open Championship comfortability could be just what is needed to help him find his missing hot putter.

Cameron Smith +2800 (BetRivers)

Smith was solid at the Scottish Open and finished T10, but a poor second round kept him from ever getting in contention. However, the fact that he only shot one of the rounds over par shows me he is acclimating to links golf which is something he hasn't done as often as I'd expect throughout his career.

The Old Course should suit this year's PLAYERS Champion in a number of ways. To succeed, golfers will need to scramble effectively. With massive greens, there will need to be a good deal of creativity involved. There are few on TOUR who check more of these boxes than Smith. In his past 36 rounds, the 28-year-old ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Short Game, which includes both around-the-green play and putting. Smith also ranks 10th in the field in three-putt avoidance, which will most definitely come into play.

Wind will also most likely be a factor at this year's Open Championship. In his past 24 rounds, Smith is the second best wind player in the field.

We’ve seen a good deal of crossover over the years with golfers who’ve excelled at St. Andrews and Augusta National. The Australian’s last three trips to the Masters have resulted in finishes of second, 10th and third.

Smith is the highest-ranked player in the world without a major championship (sixth in OWGR), and The Old Course at St. Andrews should be a perfect course for Smith to become the third Australian to win at this historic venue.

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Dustin Johnson +4000 (bet365)

Similar to the U.S. Open, I believe that the players who’ve chosen to go to LIV Golf may provide us with some value at the Open Championship.

Johnson played well at the U.S. Open, gaining 6.92 strokes from tee to green on the field despite a narrative that he can’t compete with the best on TOUR anymore after his defection to LIV Golf. He ranked 15th in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green and followed the performance up with a T3 at LIV Portland.

In 2015, DJ held the 36-hole lead for the Open Championship at St. Andrews before faltering over the weekend. There was a long weather delay that kept some of the field off the course, including Johnson, for an extended period of time. He also played well at St. Andrews in 2010, when he finished 14th.

DJ is an excellent Open Championship performer, finishing in the top 14 at the event in six of the past eleven years. He's a good putter on slower greens and ranks 13th in proximity for 75-100 yards, which is why he's played so well at The Old Course.

Despite the move to LIV Golf, the two-time major champion is still a top-tier golfer who is capable of competing with the best in the world.

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Louis Oosthuizen +5000 (bet365)

Louis Oosthuizen is another golfer who I believe is being undervalued due to his move to LIV Golf. In two starts at St. Andrews, Oosthuizen has a win and a playoff loss. In terms of course history, you can't much better than that.

The South African has the type of game that just works around The Old Course. He puts the ball in the fairway and is an excellent player around the greens.

Oosthuizen hasn't played the type of golf this season as he did last year when he contended in all of the majors, but his game seems to be coming around. While the statistics from LIV Golf may not translate directly to his chances this week, it's still encouraging to see him playing good golf. He finished in fifth place a few weeks ago at the LIV Portland event and ranked in the top-10 in both fairways hit and greens in regulation.

This number is simply too big for a golfer who has been hugely impressive at St. Andrews.