2022 Hero World Challenge Expert Picks & Odds: 6 Best Bets for Scottie Scheffler, Justin Thomas, Sam Burns & More

Click arrow to expand 2022 Hero World Challenge odds via bet365

The PGA TOUR's Fall Swing concludes with the final individual tournament of the year when 20 of the TOUR's most elite players head to Nassau, Bahamas for this week's Hero World Challenge. While there are only 20 players in this week's field, this group includes 17 of the top 23 players in the Official World Golf Rankings. Our analysts have five separate outright plays and one matchup for you to consider in this stacked field.

Justin Thomas +1300 (bet365)

Jason Sobel: So much of the prognostication game this time of year revolves around trying to get inside players’ heads and figure out which ones are truly motivated. That goes double for a limited-field event in a vacation paradise such as this. I’ve covered this event on multiple occasions in the past, and, well, let’s just say it’s not uncommon to run into a competitor during a late-night casino run. (You know, when I’m meandering past those high-limit tables.)

Thomas is the type of player who only does business trips, though. He might not always play his best golf in these situations, but I can assure you he enters ‘em with more preparation and intent than some of his peers.

Throw in a chance to have his good buddy Tiger Woods hand him a trophy – a nice little promotion for The Match next week – plus an opportunity to win his first tournament since claiming the PGA Championship in May and just his second since THE PLAYERS Championship last March, and we have to believe the motivation level will at least rival that of anyone else in this field.

In his last two starts at this event, JT has a pair of T5 results. He only played once during the fall portion of the schedule (a T40 at THE CJ CUP), so he’ll be using this as a springboard into the meaty part of the season.

Shane Lowry +2500 (Caesars)

Chris Murphy: There is always a question around motivation in a week like this as it has been lovingly dubbed a “hit and giggle,” but some will come in with form and by the weekend will be focused on lifting the trophy. I’m simply looking for odds this week rather than trying to figure out who is there to play golf, and who is there to vacation.

Outside of Sam Burns, whom Derek highlighted below, Shane Lowry is the name whose odds stick out the most for me. I believe we are getting a bit of an odds discount on the Irishman because this is his first trip to the event, but we know he is well suited to battle the difficulties that these types of coastal courses can present.

He also is part of the European group of players who played more recently at the DP World Tour finale, and he showed some really strong form over the final three rounds after a struggle on day one. I’ll look for him to roll that into a short field at nice odds this week, and he’s one whom I don’t worry too much about post-round fun affecting his play from day to day.

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Scottie Scheffler +850 (bet365)

Spencer Aguiar: Part of the perceived problem everyone is experiencing this week is that we aren't used to seeing this many options under 20/1 pre-event. That has created a betting board that looks shaky on the surface because of the jarring optics behind the numbers, but it is important to note that most books have released their cumulative totals at 20-30 points below what we commonly see during a standard week.

That suggests shops have provided a flatter slate regarding their upfront hold percentage, and I would venture to guess that it stems from books realizing the plethora of studs throughout will create spread-out exposure from an outright perspective.

And while all of that means we should pinpoint a handful of choices that are grading as positive values from a long-term sense, it was Scottie Scheffler that carried the vast majority of my advantage, showing as the only golfer to project over one percent off from his price tag when looking at my anticipated win equity.

My numbers had the American closer to 6/1 to win this event than anything we have seen in the space that has stretched between 8-9 at most shops during the week, and it is going to come down to getting anything better than his negative-2.5 shots per start that he is generating with his flat stack over the last five tournaments.

The second he provides any semblance of a positive total with that capacity of his game, an outright is well within his grasp, and I wouldn't be shocked if he pulls it off in landslide fashion.

Sam Burns +2000 (BetMGM)

Derek Farnsworth: This is pretty simple – we are getting great odds on a proven winner who nearly won this event last year. Burns has won four times in the last 18 months, which is as good as nearly anyone in the field. He loves bermuda courses and could have won here last year if not for a bad around the green performance coming down the stretch of the back nine on Sunday.

He played great at the Presidents Cup, his irons can catch fire, and he’s one of the best putters in the field. If he doesn’t spray the driver, I like his chances to contend at Albany for the second straight year.

Tony Finau +900 (FanDuel)

Landon Silinsky: Finau has three wins in his past seven starts, which is just absurd when you think about how many guys don't even have one for their entire career. The last time we saw him, he was going wire to wire at the Houston Open and lapping the field by four strokes. He’s played Albany three times in his career, finishing T7, T10, and solo second in those starts. I am simply not betting against this man right now, as he's just too dialed in.

He ranks No. 1 in this field in SG: Tee-to-Green, SG: Putting and Total Strokes Gained over his past 48, 36, 24 and four. That’s not normal, I don’t care how small the field is. Keep in mind, this field boasts 15 of the top 23 ranked players in the world.

The odds are suggesting that Jon Rahm is twice as likely to win this event than Finau is, and I am simply not buying it. Fade this man at your own risk.

Tommy Fleetwood (+108) Over Sungjae Im (FanDuel)

Rob Bolton: Of the 10 matchups offered by FanDuel, Tommy Fleetwood is the only golfer kicking back plus money, so that has my attention. The Brit also has something at Albany that Sungjae Im doesn’t – experience. Sure, it’s been five years, but Fleetwood turned in a T3 here in 2017.

When I slotted Im at No. 13 in my Power Rankings at PGATOUR.com, I alluded to the absurdity that he hasn’t previously qualified. Tournament debutants went Win-2nd-T3 just last year, but even when you toss out newness in favor of form, Fleetwood (at No. 6) gets the edge.

Fleetwood recently prevailed at the Nedbank Golf Challenge, and he bracketed the emotional victory with top fives in limited fields at Congaree and in Dubai. He’s galloping toward the tape that is the conclusion of 2022. We might as well piggyback his happy holidays in one more limited field.