2022 Masters Odds: Picks & Predictions for These 7 Former Champions
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Dustin Johnson and Hideki Matsuyama.
Click arrow to expand 2022 Masters odds via BetMGM
2022 Masters Odds
|Si Woo Kim||+8000|
|Harold Varner III||+15000|
|Erik van Rooyen||+20000|
|Min Woo Lee||+30000|
|Jose Maria Olazabal||+250000|
If you’ve been following our coverage of the 2022 Masters so far this week, you’ll have learned that history is extremely important at Augusta National.
Players don’t usually thrive on their first trip to Augusta National. It’s why Will Zalatoris’ second-place finish last year took so many by surprise. Young players aren’t supposed to walk into Augusta and thrive right away.
Well, who knows Augusta National better than the players who have actually won there before?
In case you didn’t hear, it’s looking like Tiger Woods is playing too. We have him covered.
For now, let’s get to the other seven former Masters champions who have a legitimate chance of competing this year. (Apologies to Danny Willett.)
Odds via BetMGM.
Dustin Johnson +1800
Johnson has played a light schedule in the buildup to the Masters this year, playing in only four PGA TOUR events this calendar year. It’s been a mixed bag of results so far ranging from a missed cut at the Genesis, to a ninth-place finish at the PLAYERS Championship last month.
What has really been plaguing DJ is his short game. He’s averaged close to a full stroke lost per tournament on and around the greens in 2022, which does not bode well for the unforgiving greens at Augusta National. He’ll need to button that up if he has any hopes of competing this week.
This will be Johnson’s 12th Masters start. His experience here will certainly give him a leg up on a good portion of the field, but I have my concerns at this low number.
Buy or Sell?
By no means would I be shocked in the least if Johnson came out and won the Masters. That’s certainly within his range of outcomes. He’s one of the best players this game has ever seen, and has had numerous top-10 finishes in this event over the years.
However, his last win was 17 months ago at this very event, when it was played in November during the COVID year. Since then he’s failed to tally a top-5 finish in any event he’s played in. He just hasn’t been playing like the dominant player he has been in the past.
At this number there’s other players I would rather put my money on. This is a sell for me.
Jordan Spieth +2000
Spieth has one of the most impressive course histories out there for Augusta National. In eight starts in this event, his finishes are 2nd, 1st, 2nd, 11th, 3rd, 21st, 46th, 3rd.
While it’s clear he isn’t the same player now that he was in his early 20s, he’s still a threat anytime the second week in April rolls around every year.
This year is no different, and there’s some additional reasons to be optimistic when it comes to the recent data trends. He’s gained strokes on approach in five consecutive events, highlighted by a 6.2 strokes gained performance last week at Valero.
Spieth also has gained some minimal strokes off the tee over the last five events, which is an area he typically struggles with. In general, his ball-striking appears to be in a good place.
Buy or Sell?
This is a tough one to say definitively one way or the other. There’s enough in terms of the recent data that has me intrigued on the outlook for Spieth’s 2022 Masters.
However, 20-1 is a steep price to pay for a golfer that is a shell of his former self. I won’t be betting him at this price, so I’ll classify this one as a sell. But like I said earlier, Spieth always finds a way to be a factor at Augusta, so I won’t blame anyone who decides to back him this week.
Hideki Matsuyama +4000
This will be the defending champion’s 11th start at the Masters, and he’s had some great history at this event. Including the win last year, he’s had three top-10s and six top-20s at Augusta National. He’s gained strokes on the field in each of his last seven starts at Augusta and is clearly a great fit for the course.
On the surface, his number here is very attractive at 40-1. He’s gained strokes tee to green in all six starts in 2022, and overall has looked like the Hideki we’ve grown accustomed to.
Unfortunately, there is the elephant in the room that must be addressed, that is certainly being baked into his price offering by the books. He’s been dealing with a neck injury of late, an ailment that eventually led to a WD in the second round of last week’s Valero Texas Open. The injury certainly opens the door for some concern heading into this week.
Buy or Sell?
Matsuyama checks the boxes in terms of good recent form and course history. He already has two wins this season and has been playing consistently — when healthy.
If you can stomach the injury risk, this isn’t a terrible number for Hideki. However, I like some other players in this range more this week, all of which don’t carry obvious injury concerns. I’ll be passing on Matsuyama this week.
Adam Scott +5000
Scott hasn’t been playing all that much lately, with only four PGA tour starts this calendar year. It’s hard to get much of a read on his limited recent sample, as his strokes gained numbers haven’t shown much of a trend either way.
What we do know is that he’s an excellent ball-striker who profiles well for Augusta National. This week will be his 20th start in the Masters, which is a significant advantage. He’s one of the few players in the field that has 20-plus years of Masters experience, with an ability to still play golf at an elite level when things come together. He’s made the cut in 17 of his 19 previous starts here, with four top-10 finishes.
Buy or Sell?
While I think it’s reasonable to believe that Scott can play well this week, I do believe his ceiling is capped. He’s only won one tournament on the PGA Tour in the last 6 years, and it’s hard to come up with a true path to victory for him this week given the strength of this field. I’ll be passing on Adam Scott at 50-1.
Patrick Reed +6600
I could see this number coming as a shock to someone who hasn’t been following golf closely over the last 6-8 months. A former winner of this event who has three top-10 finishes in eight starts, a great short game, and the ability to close. What’s not to like?
Putting it mildly, Reed has been downright awful for the better part of the last calendar year. He has failed to gain strokes tee to green on the field in any tracked event he’s played in since the 3M Open in July of last year. His short game has been the only reason he’s been making cuts during this stretch, and there’s an argument to be made that even that has been fairly inconsistent.
Buy or Sell?
I can’t imagine any scenario where betting Reed to win the Masters this week is a positive expected value decision. If this number were in the +20000 range, maybe you could convince me he was worth a dart throw given his great short game and course history. However, given his recent trending data, this is a sell at 66-1.
Sergio Garcia +8000
Garcia is another player who has had a mixed bag of results over the last year or so. He hasn’t won an event since the Sanderson Farms in October 2020, but he has mixed in some nice finishes to uphold some intrigue for this week.
Sergio has been blitzing the field in strokes gained off the tee, averaging more than one-half a stroke gained per round on the field over the last 50 rounds. He’s even been putting well of late, gaining an average of 0.3 strokes per round on the greens.
Ironically, Garcia’s issues have come with the irons of late, with which he’s lost strokes on approach to the field in eight of his last 10 starts. As one of the best pure ball-strikers over the last decade, it’s a little surprising to see this recent skid in his approach numbers. However, it is likely the reason he is priced this far down the board.
Buy or Sell?
Garcia has lost a total of 8.3 strokes on approach over his last three events, but still managed to scrape out three top-40 finishes. This bodes well for Sergio, as the rest of his game appears to be in great shape.
He’s had nearly a full month to work out the kinks in the irons since his last start at the PLAYERS, and it’s reasonable to believe his irons can return back to his positive baseline. I think at +8000, Sergio is a reasonable gamble this week. This is a buy.
Bubba Watson +8000
This will be the 14th time Watson tees it up at Augusta National for the Masters. The two-time winner is always a popular pick here, but I’m here to caution you on that this time around.
In his prior 13 starts, Bubba has only finished in the top-5 three times, with the majority of his other finishes scattered in the middle of the leaderboard.
Watson’s play of late has also failed to inject much optimism into his outlook for this week. He’s missed the cut in three of his last five starts, and has only one top-10 finish in the last year on the PGA tour. He’s failed to gain strokes on approach in four of his last five events, and has lost strokes putting in five of the last six.
Buy or Sell?
We’re selling Bubba this week. He just doesn’t have the firepower to compete with this field. If there were some recent data trending in the correct direction, it may be different. But without that, it’s a pretty easy sell spot for me.
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