Updated 2022 RBC Heritage Odds & Picks for Kevin Na, Maverick McNealy, More

Get up to $2,200 FREE to bet the RBC Heritage.

Bet Now

AUGUSTA, Ga. – Yup, that dateline is correct. While my colleagues were busy working on Masters stories from the Augusta National press building, I was grinding over this very preview of the upcoming RBC Heritage.

You’re welcome … I think.

By the time you’re reading this, I’ll be high-tailing it out of Augusta. While I won’t be following the traveling circus to Hilton Head, part of me wishes I was.

There could be no better complement to the recently-concluded Masters than this week’s tournament, which serves as the antithesis to the pressures of trying to win a green jacket, and its laid-back vibe provides the perfect dichotomy for this two-week Southeast swing.

We actually have a solid field, too, with five of the world’s top-10 players scheduled to compete and a bevy of Masters competitors making the short(ish) drive from Augusta (or even shorter flight).

That leads to the biggest annual question facing us at this one: Should we chase the players who are enjoying a Harbour Town chaser this week?

Since it was such a slow week – sarcasm font, guys – I dug into some research to answer that question. I went back over the past decade (2020 not included, since these events weren’t on back-to-back weeks) and examined how many of the top five on the RBC Heritage leaderboard had played the Masters one week earlier and where they’d finished.

What I found is that of the 53 players who have finished in the top-five at Harbour Town, 30 had competed in the previous week’s Masters.

Of those 30, the Augusta results were mixed. Four had finished inside the top-10, 13 were inside the top-25 and 11 missed the cut.

All of which means the answer to whether we should chase those chasing a Masters start is inconclusive, though I’ll proffer that not all inconclusive data is immaterial. In this case, all of these numbers allow us a bit of a window into this week’s prognostications.

Essentially, we can select those who played in the Masters or those who didn’t, without favor toward either side. And if we’re selecting those who played, we don’t necessarily have to favor those who played well or didn’t play well.

With all of that in mind, let’s get to the picks, as I’ll have a nice balance of Masters chasers and guys who had last week off.

The must-have app for golf bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free picks from experts

Live odds for every golfer

Download Now

Outright Winner

One player to win the tournament.

Kevin Na (+5500)

Some players don’t need to build on results. There are guys who can miss 5-6 cuts in a row, then something clicks and they contend for a title. Then there are momentum players, those who tend to be streaky. The latter is a solid characterization of Na.

While he didn’t win last year’s Tour Championship, he did tie for the lowest 72-hole score, a performance which was preceded by a pair of runner-up finishes and nothing outside the top-25 in his previous five starts.

When he won the Sony Open, he hadn’t played much golf before that early-January event, but did have top-40s in his previous three dating back to the previous year. Na played well at last week’s Masters, though he struggled with the putter at times. That doesn’t bother me as much as the ball-striking entices me.

After posting solid numbers with the irons, he’ll return to a course where he owns five top-10s in 15 career starts, one which should suit his style as much as it ever has.

Bet the RBC Heritage, Win $200 (No Matter What!)

Bet Now

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done options.

Matt Fitzpatrick (+2200)

Due to time/travel constraints, I’m writing this preview before the odds have been released. There’s a chance I’ll like Fitzpatrick as my favorite outright play once we know the prices, but I have a feeling he’ll be too low for me in that market.

Running hot this year, fresh off a T4 at this event a year ago and on the record as saying Harbour Town is his favorite course, this one feels like a smash play on every platform. Again, if the number is palatable, I reserve the right to move him ahead of Na, but I have a feeling the oddsmakers will make us work for it, if we want to play him. He does, however, own tons of value in pools.

Kevin Kisner (+5000)

Come on, like you didn’t already have him penciled in here for your OADs? I’d expect him to be a popular play this week. But as I often write, these pools are all about game theory.

If you’re struggling this year and need to play catch-up, Kiz probably isn’t your guy. If you’re cruising along, though, and just want to stiff-arm the competition – think Tiger Woods going into the final-round of a mid-2000s major – a Kisner selection should help hold off some of those other contenders.

Shane Lowry (+2000)

Following his third round of last week’s Masters, Lowry intimated that he’s playing some of the best golf of his life right now. As I said that evening during the Masters Radio postgame show, at some point that is going to come to fruition with a big-time result. It might be this week; it might not be for another two months at the U.S. Open, but Lowry is going to get his hands on a trophy soon.

This one certainly isn’t a bad place to chase him, where he can exhale a bit and relax after being in the Augusta National pressure-cooker throughout last week.

Mito Pereira (+7000)

It’s taken a few months, but #MitoMania has finally died down amongst the golf predictor industry. Maybe it shouldn’t have, though. While he isn’t exactly seriously contending, Pereira has finished in the top 30 in seven of his last 10 starts. His three-victory breakthrough on the Korn Ferry Tour last season shows both his potential and his penchant for closing. While others might’ve gotten bored of picking Mito, it might be the right time to stick with him.

Matthew NeSmith (+15000)

Full disclosure: I was very close to picking NeSmith as my favorite outright this week, and I’ll still have a play on him in that window.

When I spoke with him on “Hitting the Green,” my show on SiriusXM PGA TOUR Radio a few weeks ago, the South Carolina native admitted that if he was picking himself anywhere, it would be at this event. Armed with some confidence after a title contention just last month at the Valspar Championship, don’t be surprised if NeSmith gets himself into a similar spot this week.

Bet the RBC Heritage at BetMGM and get a risk-free bet up to $1,000.

Bet Now

Top-Five

One player to finish top-five.

Maverick McNealy (+1000 for top-five)

You’ve heard of the proverbial Best Player Who Hasn’t Won a Major and even Best Player Who Hasn’t Won a Masters, but how about this one: Best Player Who Didn’t Play the Masters.

OK, so McNealy wasn’t really that close to qualifying, ranking 71st in the OWGR last week, but he just might own that title. He’s made the cut in his last 12 starts and 21 of his last 22.

As I’ve often written of McNealy, such results show he owns an uncommonly high floor, though questions remain about his ceiling. If he is going to reach it, we’d have to imagine that will happen on a shorter course, the type where he’s seen his most success to date, with top-fives at Pebble Beach, Silverado and here at Harbour Town over the past year-and-a-half.

If we’re looking for even more reason to be optimistic, last year’s fourth-place finish at this one was largely due to his short game and putting, as he finished right at the field average with his ball-striking. Expect a better performance with the irons this week, which could help him reach that inevitable ceiling.

Top-10

One player to finish top-10.

Corey Conners (+250 for top-10)

If there are some stretches amongst my selections this week, then allow me to offer up your safe play in the form of Conners, who had another tremendous Masters outing. That’s now five straight results of 35th or better, and it wouldn’t shock anyone if he parlays his world-class ball-striking skills and (I must admit) what looks like an improved putting stroke into a second career win this week.

I like him for all bets and in all formats this week, but a top-10 play is a conservative one that cashed here last year with a T4 finish.

Top-20

One player to finish top-20.

Brandt Snedeker (+650 for top-20)

It’s been tough going in recent months for Snedeker, a popular guy who plays fast, putts well and usually has a smile on his face. Prior to his last start at the Valero Texas Open, he’d missed the cut in five straight events, but a T18 in San Antonio should be enough to make us a bit optimistic about him moving forward. And this feels like a good place to fuel that optimism, as the 2011 winner owns four career top-20 results.

Top-30

One player to finish top-30.

Doc Redman

Longtime readers and listeners of my Links & Locks podcast shouldn’t be surprised by Redman’s inclusion on this list. I’m a big fan of the Good Doctor and a low-country ball-striker’s paradise could be just what he needs to get back on track.

Redman finished T21 here two years ago, when an elite field came to Hilton Head right after the schedule suspension due to COVID, and he was runner-up at Congaree the last time a PGA TOUR event was held in the state of South Carolina, where he played his college golf at Clemson.

Top-40

One player to finish top-40.

Robert Streb (+275 for top-40)

The truth is, this one feels a little weird. I love Streb, one of the nicest guys in the game, but he owns just three top-40 finishes in his last 13 starts, with all three of those being top-10s, including a T7 at the Valspar just a few weeks ago. That should render him an all-or-nothing play, so don’t be scared of sprinkling a little bit on a top-10 at a big price, though top-40 is the obvious conservative option.

Get up to $1,100 back if your RBC Heritage bet loses.

Bet Now

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS.

Dustin Johnson

Trending, trending, trending.

He didn’t seem to like his driver much last week, but DJ did agree with the other 13 clubs in the bag and shouldn’t need the big stick much at Harbour Town.

We don’t often think of him as the high-floor play, but that’s exactly what he’s been lately – and at this event, too, where he’s finished between 13th and 28th over the past four years. There’s some very obvious win equity for him here and with plenty of lower-cost options on the DFS board, I’ll have him at the top of many of my lineups.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS.

Luke Donald

The second all-time leading money-winner in RBC Heritage history – only about $65,000 behind Jim Furyk – Donald is to this event what Phil Mickelson is to the U.S. Open, owning five career runner-up finishes without a single victory.

Even though he’s MC’d in three of the last four, there’s reason for optimism this week. Donald will return to one of his favorite venues ranked fourth in Strokes Gained: Approach this season, which is essentially the most relevant metric at this one.

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low score Thursday.

Webb Simpson (+3500 for FRL)

Look, you don’t need me to tell you about Simpson’s value at this tournament, which serves as one of his personal ATMs, where he owns a win, a runner-up and eight top-25s in a dozen career starts.

Following a “get-right” week at the Masters, it appears he’s now healthy and ready to start playing Webb-like golf again. I don’t mind any four-round plays on him, but I especially like a shot on Thursday, as he’s posted a 65, 66, 68 and three 69s in opening rounds at this one.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players.

Denny McCarthy (+10000)

One of the game’s best putters, especially on Bermuda greens, expect McCarthy to be in the mix if his tee-to-green game is just above field average or even neutral. He finished T13 here last year, but that was after he chased an opening 73 with three straight 67s.

As always, I like players for head-to-head wagers with high floors, and McCarthy has made 12 cuts in his last 13 starts, with six top-20 results during that time. Don’t be afraid to play him in outrights, props and DFS, but he might own the most value in matchups.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value.

Sungjae Im (+3300), Alex Noren (+5000), Russell Henley (+3300), Chris Kirk (+5000), Adam Hadwin (+6600), Kramer Hickok (+20000), J.T. Poston (+20000), Patton Kizzire (+10000), Alex Smalley (+20000)

The Big Fade

One top player to avoid at this tournament.

Jordan Spieth (+2800)

Seven years ago, I followed Spieth from Augusta to Hilton Head, chronicling his week at the RBC Heritage fresh off winning the green jacket as a 21-year-old. He was on top of the world then, jetting in late, barely practicing beforehand and finishing T12 while hardly obsessing over this one.

That seems like so long ago, as he’s coming off his first ever Masters MC and, as anyone who’s witnessed his pre-shot routine understands, is clearly searching for something. I liked him a lot pre-Masters, presuming he could show up at Augusta National and simply find his best stuff, but if he couldn’t do it there, that tells me there are some issues right now.

I’ll stay away from Spieth until we see some signs that he’s got it all turned around.

The must-have app for golf bettors

Custom scoreboard for your bets

Free picks from experts

Live odds for every golfer

Download Now