2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Odds and Picks: Consider Nick Hardy in Outright Market

2023 AT&T Pebble Beach Odds and Picks: Consider Nick Hardy in Outright Market article feature image

Pictured: Nick Hardy. (Photo by Chris Condon/PGA TOUR via Getty Images)

The AT&T Pebble Beach has given us pedigree and beauty over the years, but the new elevated schedule has continuously provided a murky outlook. The rotational nature of what receives the boost will help this event during future iterations, but the ugly truth has been revealed when it comes to what will transpire for this contest during the years it is not one of the featured tournaments. Frankly, it is a sad picture for such a picturesque venue.

We talked about the potential volatility of the weather during Friday night's article, and the worst-case scenario from a content creation standpoint has come into play. Inclement conditions forced an early stop to Saturday's round, causing what can only be described as a dreaded Monday finish for all involved.

The tour has tried to combat the imminent withdrawal issue by increasing the cut range from the top 60 and ties to anyone within the top 65 by the end of round three. Still, you would have to imagine next week's Waste Management Open will cause many golfers to board the first plane they can find if they are no longer in real contention.

We can't talk about head-to-head wagers since we have yet to determine who qualified for the final round. Additionally, most of the outright value has been sucked from the page since books are clinging to a board that looks more juiced than someone competing in the Mr. Olympia contest. I'll throw out one random wager for everyone to consider, though it should be viewed as nothing more than a dart throw.

If you aren't doing so already, you can find me on Twitter @TeeOffSports. There, I will provide a link to my pre-tournament model, a powerful and interactive data spreadsheet that allows user inputs to create custom golf rankings. That sheet is released every Monday, so be sure to check it out and construct your own numbers from my database of information.

Outright Consideration

Nick Hardy 66/1 (Bet365)

I don't love anything we are going to talk about for Saturday's round. It is a board that wants no action to be taken against it, and we see that with four players coming in at 5.5/1 or less. However, I am going to take a small swing on Nick Hardy — a golfer who gets to finish his third round on the more straightforward Monterey Peninsula setup — at 66/1 on Bet365.

In fairness, part of the enhancement in odds stems from Hardy having already taken advantage of the three par-fives over his first eight holes, which he played Saturday. However, I don't believe we are in a spot where he needs to make up this six-shot deficit overnight.

Sure, it would be nice to have him generate the most out of some of the easier scoring chances coming home in round three, but there is going to be a correction when you realize only four players who have taken his direct path over the opening three days are ahead of him on the leaderboard. That suggests the Monterey benefit should be something Hardy can take advantage of before heading back to Pebble in the final round.

Hardy ranked eighth in my pre-tournament model in strokes gained on approach over his past 24 rounds, 19th on easy courses and an impressive 13th in GIR percentage. I believe that if he can get to eight- or nine-under by the end of his day at Monterey, there is no reason he shouldn't be within a few shots of a weaker leaderboard heading into his final 18 holes at Pebble Beach.

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