2023 RBC Canadian Open Odds, Expert Picks: Course Fits Include Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala & Ludvig Aberg

The PGA Tour is heading north of the border to play the 2023 RBC Canadian Open in the final stop before the third major championship of the season. This will mark the first time the Canadian Open has been held at Oakdale Golf and Country Club.

Oakdale Golf and Country Club is a par-72 measuring 7,264 yards and features greens that are a Bentgrass and Poa Annua blend. The course has three par-5s and three par-3s.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week.  Notable players include Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns.

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Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

• 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19)
• 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
• 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)
• 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21)
• 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12)
• 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14)

Five Key Stats for Oakdale Golf and Country Club

Let's take a look at five key metrics for Oakdale Golf and Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. The course features a lot of elevation changes, so golfers will need to be dialed in with their irons.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Corey Conners (+20.6)
2. Justin Rose (+20.3)
3. Rory McIlroy (+19.9)
4. Tyrrell Hatton (+19.6)
5. Shane Lowry (+18.8)

2. Fairways Gained

The rough at Oakdale is extremely thick and penal. The course is relatively short, so distance off the tee won't be a major factor. Players who consistently find themselves in the fairway should have the advantage this week.

Fairways Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Ryan Armour (+40.8)
2. Ryan Moore (+38.8)
3. David Lingmerth (+33.8)
4. Zac Blair (+33.1)
5. Doug Ghim (+32.9)

3. Birdie or Better Gained

Although the rough will provide a slight challenge, I believe we are still looking at a winner in the -18 range. With three par-5s and a handful of short par-4s, the course should be gettable.

Birdie or Better Gained Over Past 24 Rounds:

1. Cameron Young (+20.0)
2. Scott Piercy (+19.5)
3. Ben Martin (+19.3)
4. Corey Conners (+19.0)
5. Vincent Norrman (+18.5)

4. Proximity from 100-125 Yards

With the average par-4 on the course measuring in at about 412 yards, this will likely turn into a "wedge-fest."

Proximity 100-125 Yards Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Davis Riley (+190.4)
2. Greyson Sigg (+173.5)
3. Rory McIlroy (+165.7)
4. Matt Kuchar (+151.9)
5. Brian Stuard (+151.3)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting

Shorter courses with a lot of birdies being made tend to turn into putting contests. I believe a good putter will win the RBC Canadian Open.

Strokes Gained: Putting Over Past 24 Rounds

1. Chad Ramey (+25.5)
2. Sam Ryder (+24.8)
3. Maverick McNealy (+20.2)
4. Chez Reavie (+16.8)
5. Seung-Yul Noh (+16.0)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Fairways Gained (22%), Proximity from 100-125 Yards (15%), Birdie or Better Gained (20%), SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

1. Ben Martin
2. Chez Reavie
3. Justin Rose
4. Corey Conners
5. Tyrrell Hatton
6. Carson Young
7. Brendon Todd
8. Tommy Fleetwood
9. Adam Svensson
10. Dylan Wu

2023 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Sam Burns +1600 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns hasn’t been as consistent in 2023 as we’ve grown accustomed to, but he has started to string together some strong finishes in his past two starts. He finished sixth at Colonial and 16th last week at Muirfield Village. 

Burns finished in a tie for fourth at last year's RBC Canadian Open, and although it was held at a different course, the expected scoring and the agronomy of the course will be similar to what it was at St. George’s.

The 26-year-old has won at some difficult tracks over the past few years, but he’s also won a “birdie-fest” at the Sanderson Farms Championship (-22), and I expect a winner in that range this week as well. Burns ranks third in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 24 rounds, so he fits the profile as a player who can keep up with a low-scoring event. 

One thing Burns never fails to offer is win equity. With five PGA Tour wins in his past 57 starts, he’s a player I know can finish the job if he gets in position over the weekend.

Pick: Sam Burns Outright

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Sahith Theegala +3300 (FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala is a player who's seemed poised to break through for his first PGA Tour victory all season, and there's some reason to believe this week's RBC Canadian Open could be the right spot for his breakthrough. The former Haskins Award winner has done some of his best work on the PGA Tour on shorter courses, including at the Travelers, the RSM Classic and the Fortinet Championship. 

Theegala has been struggling this season off the tee, but I believe he will have the opportunity to take less than driver at Oakdale this week. He ranks fifth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained and second in Birdies Gained. The 26-year-old is a flat-out birdie-maker who can keep up in a low-scoring event.

Theegala had his closest call to date at TPC River Highlands last season. The Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix that we'll see this week in Canada closely resembles the greens he saw there, which gives some optimism on how he may feel about that type of putting surface.

If the Pepperdine product can keep it in the fairway this week, he has the talent to win the event.

Pick: Sahith Theegala Outright

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Ludvig Aberg +6600 (BetMGM)

Speaking of talented young players, you'd be hard pressed to find a European prospect as promising as Ludvig Aberg. The 23-year-old just earned his Tour card by finishing atop the PGA Tour U rankings. Prior to turning pro, Aberg was the No. 1 ranked amateur golfer in the world.

In a small sample size, Aberg has been really strong with his wedges on the PGA Tour, which will be a major factor this week. He's gained 4.6 strokes on the field thus far in his career on approach shots from 100-125 yards.

It would be a major feat to win in his first PGA Tour start, but as we saw with Rose Zhang last week, it's entirely possible.

Pick: Ludvig Aberg Outright

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Michael Kim +10000 (PointsBet)

Outside of a poor start at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Michael Kim has been trending upward of late. The former Haskins and Nicklaus Award winner has finishes of seventh (Wells Fargo) and sixth (Charles Schwab Challenge) wrapped around his missed cut and has gained 7.5 and 6.0 strokes from tee to green in those starts. 

When at his best, Kim has enjoyed both short courses and birdie-fests, both of which we'll be seeing this week. He won the 2018 John Deere Classic at a whopping -27, eviscerating the field in the process.

There have been a handful of "feel-good" stories on Tour this season, but the former "can't-miss" prospect returning to glory by winning the Canadian Open would be chief among them.

Michael Thorbjornsen +15000 (FanDuel)

Michael Thorbjornsen is one of my favorite golf prospects in a long time. The 21-year-old has yet to turn professional but has already shown he has the talent to compete at the highest level on multiple occasions.

"Thor" finished fourth at last year's Travelers Championship, posting scores of 68-65-66-66 over four rounds at TPC River Highlands. He flashed his potential once again at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. He finished in a tie for 20th but was the 36-hole leader after shooting a ridiculous 64 in the second round. 

Both of the events Thorbjornsen flashed in were on shorter tracks with favorable scoring conditions. If the talented Stanford product were to win this week, he would be the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson in 1991.

Pick: Michael Thorbjornsen Outright

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Chez Reavie +25000 (PointsBet)

Chez Reavie has done some of his best work on the PGA Tour on shorter tracks. He's been excellent at the Travelers Championship, where he has a win and two additional top-11 finishes. He's also putted well at TPC River Highlands, which has similar green types to what we'll see this week at Oakdale. 

In addition to what I believe is a strong course fit, Reavie has also won a Canadian Open in his career. The 41-year-old won the 2008 Canadian Open at Glen Abbey by three strokes (-17).

He hasn't been playing all that great in 2023 but has shown some improvement over the past month or so. He's a two-time PGA Tour winner, and I believe Reavie can win an event if he finds himself in contention late on Sunday.