2023 RBC Canadian Open Odds, Expert Picks: Course Fits Include Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala & Ludvig Aberg

2023 RBC Canadian Open Odds, Expert Picks: Course Fits Include Sam Burns, Sahith Theegala & Ludvig Aberg article feature image

Jason Allen/ISI Photos/Getty Images. Pictured: Sam Burns

Click arrow to expand the RBC Canadian Open odds via bet365
Rory McIlroy+525
Tyrrell Hatton+1300
Sam Burns+1500
Matt Fitzpatrick+1500
Cameron Young+1700
Corey Conners+1900
Justin Rose+1900
Shane Lowry+2100

Tommy Fleetwood+2700
Sahith Theegala+3200
Keith Mitchell+3700
Matt Kuchar+4500
Adrian Meronk+5000
Adam Hadwin+5500
Ludvig Aberg+6000
Nicolai Hojgaard+6500
Adam Svensson+6500
Maverick McNealy+7000
Nick Taylor+7500
Alex Smalley+7500
Michael Kim+7500
Eric Cole+7500
Mackenzie Hughes+7500
Aaron Rai+7500
Taylor Pendrith+9000
Michael Thorbjornsen+10000
Aaron Wise+10000
Harry Hall+10000
Lee Hodges+10000
David Lipsky+10000
S.H. Kim+10000

Brendon Todd+11000
Brandon Wu+11000
Will Gordon+11000
Garrick Higgo+11000
Vincent Norrman+11000
C.T. Pan+11000
Ben Martin+12000
Mark Hubbard+12000
Akshay Bhatia+14000
Webb Simpson+14000
Robby Shelton+14000
Doug Ghim+14000
Carson Young+14000
Dylan Wu+17500
Nate Lashley+17500
Cameron Champ+17500
Patton Kizzire+17500
Chez Reavie+17500
Aaron Baddeley+20000
Scott Piercy+20000
Lanto Griffin+22500
Aaron Cockerill+22500
Chad Ramey+22500
Kramer Hickok+22500
Doc Redman+22500
MJ Daffue+25000
Tyler Duncan+25000
Sam Bennett+25000
Andrew Novak+25000
Ben Silverman+25000
Zecheng Dou+25000
Grayson Murray+25000
Erik van Rooyen+30000
Peter Malnati+30000
Austin Smotherman+30000
Lucas Glover+30000
Brandt Snedeker+30000
Kevin Chappell+30000
Callum Tarren+30000
Greyson Sigg+30000
Ryan Gerard+30000

Carl Yuan+32500
Adam Long+32500
Augusto Nunez+35000
Chesson Hadley+35000
Vince Whaley+35000
Seung Yul Noh+35000
Sean O'Hair+35000
Justin Lower+35000
Martin Laird+35000
Kevin Tway+35000
Paul Haley II+35000
Matti Schmid+40000
James Hahn+40000
Brice Garnett+40000
Henrik Norlander+45000
Cody Gribble+45000
Cameron Percy+45000
Harry Higgs+45000
Brandon Matthews+45000
Hank Lebioda+45000
Martin Trainer+45000
Kevin Roy+45000
Jonathan Byrd+45000
Austin Cook+45000
David Lingmerth+45000
Chris Stroud+45000
Harrison Endycott+45000
Ryan Moore+60000
Myles Creighton+60000
Etienne Papineau+60000
Brent Grant+60000
Scott Harrington+60000
Kyle Westmoreland+60000
Roger Sloan+60000
Sung Kang+60000
Robert Streb+60000

Ryan Armour+75000
Richy Werenski+75000
Tyson Alexander+75000
Jim Herman+75000
Trevor Cone+75000
Russell Knox+75000
Matthias Schwab+75000
Trevor Werbylo+75000
Bill Haas+75000
Stuart Macdonald+75000
Michael Block+100000
Jason Dufner+100000
Michael Gligic+100000
Ryan Brehm+100000
Camilo Villegas+100000
William McGirt+100000
Derek Ernst+125000
Brian Gay+125000
Johnny Travale+125000
Mike Weir+125000
Max McGreevy+125000
Brian Stuard+125000
Kelly Kraft+125000
Andrew Landry+125000
Geoff Ogilvy+125000
Nick Watney+125000
Ricky Barnes+125000
Wesley Bryan+200000
David Hearn+300000

The PGA Tour is heading north of the border to play the 2023 RBC Canadian Open in the final stop before the third major championship of the season. This will mark the first time the Canadian Open has been held at Oakdale Golf and Country Club.

Oakdale Golf and Country Club is a par-72 measuring 7,264 yards and features greens that are a Bentgrass and Poa Annua blend. The course has three par-5s and three par-3s.

The RBC Canadian Open will play host to 156 golfers this week.  Notable players include Rory McIlroy, Tyrrell Hatton, Cameron Young, Shane Lowry, Tommy Fleetwood, Matt Fitzpatrick and Sam Burns.

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Past Winners at RBC Canadian Open

  • 2022: Rory McIlroy (-19)
  • 2019: Rory McIlroy (-22)
  • 2018: Dustin Johnson (-23)
  • 2017: Jhonattan Vegas (-21)
  • 2016: Jhonattan Vegas (-12)
  • 2010: Carl Pettersson (-14)

Five Key Stats for Oakdale Golf and Country Club

Let's take a look at five key metrics for Oakdale Golf and Country Club to determine which golfers boast top marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.

1. Strokes Gained: Approach

The best metric to start with is Strokes Gained: Approach. Proficient iron play is a requirement anywhere, and this statistic will help target the hottest golfers. The course features a lot of elevation changes, so golfers will need to be dialed in with their irons.

Strokes Gained: Approach Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Corey Conners (+20.6)
  2. Justin Rose (+20.3)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+19.9)
  4. Tyrrell Hatton (+19.6)
  5. Shane Lowry (+18.8)

2. Fairways Gained

The rough at Oakdale is extremely thick and penal. The course is relatively short, so distance off the tee won't be a major factor. Players who consistently find themselves in the fairway should have the advantage this week.

Fairways Gained Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Ryan Armour (+40.8)
  2. Ryan Moore (+38.8)
  3. David Lingmerth (+33.8)
  4. Zac Blair (+33.1)
  5. Doug Ghim (+32.9)

3. Birdie or Better Gained

Although the rough will provide a slight challenge, I believe we are still looking at a winner in the -18 range. With three par-5s and a handful of short par-4s, the course should be gettable.

Birdie or Better Gained Over Past 24 Rounds:

  1. Cameron Young (+20.0)
  2. Scott Piercy (+19.5)
  3. Ben Martin (+19.3)
  4. Corey Conners (+19.0)
  5. Vincent Norrman (+18.5)

4. Proximity from 100-125 Yards

With the average par-4 on the course measuring in at about 412 yards, this will likely turn into a "wedge-fest."

Proximity 100-125 Yards Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Davis Riley (+190.4)
  2. Greyson Sigg (+173.5)
  3. Rory McIlroy (+165.7)
  4. Matt Kuchar (+151.9)
  5. Brian Stuard (+151.3)

5. Strokes Gained: Putting

Shorter courses with a lot of birdies being made tend to turn into putting contests. I believe a good putter will win the RBC Canadian Open.

Strokes Gained: Putting Over Past 24 Rounds

  1. Chad Ramey (+25.5)
  2. Sam Ryder (+24.8)
  3. Maverick McNealy (+20.2)
  4. Chez Reavie (+16.8)
  5. Seung-Yul Noh (+16.0)

The RBC Canadian Open Model Rankings

Below, I've compiled overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories previously discussed — SG: Approach (27%), Fairways Gained (22%), Proximity from 100-125 Yards (15%), Birdie or Better Gained (20%), SG: Putting Bentgrass (16%).

  1. Ben Martin
  2. Chez Reavie
  3. Justin Rose
  4. Corey Conners
  5. Tyrrell Hatton
  6. Carson Young
  7. Brendon Todd
  8. Tommy Fleetwood
  9. Adam Svensson
  10. Dylan Wu

2023 RBC Canadian Open Picks

Sam Burns +1600 (FanDuel)

Sam Burns hasn’t been as consistent in 2023 as we’ve grown accustomed to, but he has started to string together some strong finishes in his past two starts. He finished sixth at Colonial and 16th last week at Muirfield Village. 

Burns finished in a tie for fourth at last year's RBC Canadian Open, and although it was held at a different course, the expected scoring and the agronomy of the course will be similar to what it was at St. George’s.

The 26-year-old has won at some difficult tracks over the past few years, but he’s also won a “birdie-fest” at the Sanderson Farms Championship (-22), and I expect a winner in that range this week as well. Burns ranks third in Birdie or Better Gained in his past 24 rounds, so he fits the profile as a player who can keep up with a low-scoring event. 

One thing Burns never fails to offer is win equity. With five PGA Tour wins in his past 57 starts, he’s a player I know can finish the job if he gets in position over the weekend.

Sahith Theegala +3300 (FanDuel)

Sahith Theegala is a player who's seemed poised to break through for his first PGA Tour victory all season, and there's some reason to believe this week's RBC Canadian Open could be the right spot for his breakthrough. The former Haskins Award winner has done some of his best work on the PGA Tour on shorter courses, including at the Travelers, the RSM Classic and the Fortinet Championship. 

Theegala has been struggling this season off the tee, but I believe he will have the opportunity to take less than driver at Oakdale this week. He ranks fifth in the field in Birdie or Better Gained and second in Birdies Gained. The 26-year-old is a flat-out birdie-maker who can keep up in a low-scoring event.

Theegala had his closest call to date at TPC River Highlands last season. The Bentgrass/Poa Annua mix that we'll see this week in Canada closely resembles the greens he saw there, which gives some optimism on how he may feel about that type of putting surface.

If the Pepperdine product can keep it in the fairway this week, he has the talent to win the event.

Ludvig Aberg +6600 (BetMGM)

Speaking of talented young players, you'd be hard pressed to find a European prospect as promising as Ludvig Aberg. The 23-year-old just earned his Tour card by finishing atop the PGA Tour U rankings. Prior to turning pro, Aberg was the No. 1 ranked amateur golfer in the world.

In a small sample size, Aberg has been really strong with his wedges on the PGA Tour, which will be a major factor this week. He's gained 4.6 strokes on the field thus far in his career on approach shots from 100-125 yards.

It would be a major feat to win in his first PGA Tour start, but as we saw with Rose Zhang last week, it's entirely possible.

Michael Kim +10000 (PointsBet)

Outside of a poor start at the AT&T Byron Nelson, Michael Kim has been trending upward of late. The former Haskins and Nicklaus Award winner has finishes of seventh (Wells Fargo) and sixth (Charles Schwab Challenge) wrapped around his missed cut and has gained 7.5 and 6.0 strokes from tee to green in those starts. 

When at his best, Kim has enjoyed both short courses and birdie-fests, both of which we'll be seeing this week. He won the 2018 John Deere Classic at a whopping -27, eviscerating the field in the process.

There have been a handful of "feel-good" stories on Tour this season, but the former "can't-miss" prospect returning to glory by winning the Canadian Open would be chief among them.

Michael Thorbjornsen +15000 (FanDuel)

Michael Thorbjornsen is one of my favorite golf prospects in a long time. The 21-year-old has yet to turn professional but has already shown he has the talent to compete at the highest level on multiple occasions.

"Thor" finished fourth at last year's Travelers Championship, posting scores of 68-65-66-66 over four rounds at TPC River Highlands. He flashed his potential once again at the Hero Dubai Desert Classic on the DP World Tour. He finished in a tie for 20th but was the 36-hole leader after shooting a ridiculous 64 in the second round. 

Both of the events Thorbjornsen flashed in were on shorter tracks with favorable scoring conditions. If the talented Stanford product were to win this week, he would be the first amateur to win on the PGA Tour since Phil Mickelson in 1991.

Chez Reavie +25000 (PointsBet)

Chez Reavie has done some of his best work on the PGA Tour on shorter tracks. He's been excellent at the Travelers Championship, where he has a win and two additional top-11 finishes. He's also putted well at TPC River Highlands, which has similar green types to what we'll see this week at Oakdale. 

In addition to what I believe is a strong course fit, Reavie has also won a Canadian Open in his career. The 41-year-old won the 2008 Canadian Open at Glen Abbey by three strokes (-17).

He hasn't been playing all that great in 2023 but has shown some improvement over the past month or so. He's a two-time PGA Tour winner, and I believe Reavie can win an event if he finds himself in contention late on Sunday.

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