2023 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks: Our 5 Best Bets Include Rickie Fowler

2023 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks: Our 5 Best Bets Include Rickie Fowler article feature image

Tom Pennington/Getty Images. Pictured: Rickie Fowler.

  • Our staff has identified its favorite betting trends to make its 2023 Valero Texas Open picks.
  • In the final stop before the Masters, Tyrrell Hatton and Rickie Fowler top the odds board.
  • Check out our favorite Valero Texas Open picks below.
Click arrow to expand Valero Texas Open odds via bet365
Player NameOdds
Tyrrell Hatton+1200
Rickie Fowler+1800
Si Woo Kim+2000
Corey Conners+2000
Davis Riley+2000
Hideki Matsuyama+2500
Taylor Montgomery+2500
Matt Kuchar+2800
Chris Kirk+2800
J.J. Spaun+3300
Alex Noren+4000
Ben Griffin+4000
Ryan Fox+4000
Matt Wallace+4000
Brendon Todd+4500
Cameron Davis+4500
Christiaan Bezuidenhout+4500
Aaron Rai+4500
Nicolai Hojgaard+5000
Thomas Detry+5000
Taylor Pendrith+5000
Alex Smalley+5500
Andrew Putnam+5500
Nick Taylor+5500
Adam Schenk+6000
Sam Ryder+6000
Davis Thompson+6000
Will Gordon+6600
Beau Hossler+6600
Byeong-Hun An+7000
Ben Martin+7000
Eric Cole+7000
Nick Hardy+7000
Kevin Streelman+7000
S.H. Kim+7500
Sam Stevens+7500
David Lingmerth+8000
Erik van Rooyen+8000
Patrick Rodgers+8000
Sepp Straka+8000
MJ Daffue+8000
Lanto Griffin+8000
Brandon Wu+8000
Emiliano Grillo+9000
Robby Shelton+9000
Padraig Harrington+9000
Patton Kizzire+9000
Francesco Molinari+9000
Trey Mullinax+10000
Nate Lashley+10000
Luke List+10000
Hayden Buckley+10000
Joseph Bramlett+10000
Austin Eckroat+10000
Ryan Palmer+10000
Tyler Duncan+10000
Garrick Higgo+11000
Charley Hoffman+11000
Kramer Hickok+11000
Kazuki Higa+11000
Mark Hubbard+11000
Lucas Glover+11000
Harry Hall+12500
Lee Hodges+12500
Adam Long+12500
Doug Ghim+12500
Akshay Bhatia+12500
Ryan Gerard+12500
Matthew Nesmith+14000
Vincent Norrman+14000
Dylan Frittelli+14000
Michael Kim+15000
Ben Taylor+15000
Scott Piercy+15000
Pierceson Coody+15000
Matthias Schwab+15000
Martin Laird+15000
Chesson Hadley+16000
Augusto Nunez+16000
Austin Smotherman+16000
Cameron Champ+17500
Andrew Novak+17500
Justin Lower+17500
Callum Tarren+17500
Greyson Sigg+17500
Michael Thompson+17500
Kevin Chappell+17500
Peter Malnati+17500
Kevin Tway+17500
Tano Goya+20000
Stewart Cink+20000
Ryan Moore+20000
Chad Ramey+20000
Troy Merritt+20000
Ryan Armour+20000
Harry Higgs+20000
Zac Blair+20000
Kevin Roy+22500
Henrik Norlander+22500
Matti Schmid+22500
Doc Redman+22500
Nicolas Echavarria+22500
Carl Yuan+25000
Brent Grant+25000
Austin Cook+25000
Russell Knox+25000
Zecheng Dou+27500
Brice Garnett+27500
Paul Haley II+30000
Trevor Werbylo+30000
Jason Dufner+30000
Carson Young+30000
Cole Hammer+30000
Chez Reavie+30000
Luke Donald+30000
Richy Werenski+30000
Harrison Endycott+35000
Michael Gligic+35000
James Hahn+35000
Scott Harrington+40000
Trevor Cone+40000
Brandon Matthews+40000
Kyle Westmoreland+40000
Andrew Landry+40000
Roberto Diaz+40000
Ricky Barnes+50000
Robert Streb+50000
Kelly Kraft+50000
Brian Stuard+50000
Kyle Stanley+50000
Jimmy Walker+50000
Chandler Phillips+50000
Max McGreevy+60000
Jim Herman+60000
Brian Gay+100000
Nick Watney+100000
J.B. Holmes+100000
Jesse Mueller+250000
Davis Love III+250000
JJ Wood+250000

We have one more stop before Augusta National.

Our team of golf betting analysts have made their Valero Texas Open picks for the week. We have you covered in the outright market, as well as a prop and matchup pick.

After scouring the Valero Texas Open odds, check out our best bets below.

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Favorite We’re Backing

Best Long Shot

  • Sobel: Ben Martin
  • Murphy: Patton Kizzire
  • Vincenzi: Ben Martin
  • Aguiar: Joseph Bramlett
  • Bretwisch: Brandon Wu

Biggest Bust

  • Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton
  • Murphy: Hideki Matsuyama
  • Vincenzi: Taylor Montgomery
  • Aguiar: Adam Schenk
  • Bretwisch: Cam Davis

Contrarian Player To Target

  • Sobel: Ryan Fox
  • Murphy: Kevin Tway
  • Vincenzi: Matt Kuchar
  • Aguiar: Alex Smalley
  • Bretwisch: Will Gordon

Trend That Shapes Our Betting Strategy

Sobel: Two years ago, the final leaderboard on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio included six players inside the top 10 who were also top 10 in strokes gained on approach shots, which fits the weekly narrative to which we so often ascribe: Essentially, if you hit your irons really well, you’ve got a chance to win.

Last year, however, when J.J. Spaun triumphed with a winning total of 13-under, just one of those players inside the final top 10 was also in the top 10 with his irons and a whopping six of those contending players were outside the top-30.

What does all of this tell us? Great iron play is always more advantageous than poor iron play (no kidding), but there’s no singular way to win the Valero.

Murphy: Once again the state of Texas seems to bring the best out of certain players. There is a list of names, some with an association to the state and others with none that seem to pile up top 10s in the Lonestar State. I’ll be using some of that territorial history to go alongside some strong ball striking needed for success at TPC San Antonio to help form my card this week.

Aguiar: TPC San Antonio is a ball-striker's course that still manages to produce varying degrees of importance to the short game.

Since the field hits seven percent fewer greens here than average, the 3.3% increase in dispersion of scoring for around the green is pronounced, and we see that trend continue when we dive into the 4% upsurge in putting from 5-15 feet.

Bretwisch: Ball strikers in solid form that are also gaining strokes off the tee. I know the data doesn’t necessarily support that, but previous winners have come into this event gaining significant strokes with their irons (especially 75-100 yards) and driver off-the-tee.

Give me pure ball-strikers in good form who either light it up with their expected proximities or are a top putter in the field.

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Our Best Bets

Sobel: Cameron Davis +5000 (Caesars)

I was very bullish on Davis entering this year, as were many others. And then … it all seemingly fell apart.

The Aussie started the year innocuously enough, finishing T-32 at the Sony Open, then proceeded to miss the cut in five consecutive starts. For comparison’s sake, he MC’d in just seven events last season.

From an outsider’s perspective, it appeared maybe he’d just lost his mojo, but a few weeks ago at The Players, he explained that he’d been ill during the first few months of the year and had taken a while to recover. Davis finished in a share of sixth place that week at TPC Sawgrass and followed with a 2-1-0 record in last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, posting 11 birdies in his final two matches, victories against Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise.

All of this has me bullish on Davis once again, and he remains a terrific value at this number against a somewhat deflated field this week.

Murphy: Patton Kizzire — Top 20 (+300, BetMGM)

I’ll be betting Patton Kizzire this week up and down the board, including for the win, which you can still find at triple digits over at BetRivers.

It’s certainly a stretch to expect Kizzire to cash an outright ticket, but I love the form he has coming into the week having gained better than two shots on approach on both fields at The Players and Valspar where he finished with his first top 10 of the season.

Kizzire is one of those guys I mentioned previously with a run of really good play in Texas, including four top 11 finishes and a T9 at this event in 2021. If he can continue his strong form on approach he has a chance to contend in a weaker field like the one set to tee it up this week and a top 20 is a nice, comfortable spot at a good +300 number to make him my best bet of the week.

Vincenzi: Rickie Fowler +1800 (bet365)

Rickie Fowler heads to Texas in need of a victory to get himself into the Masters field next week. Luckily for him, he's one of the best players in the field.

While it would be an incredible story for Fowler to win his way into Augusta National, that isn't the reason I'm picking him to get it done. Fowler is playing some great golf this season. The last time we saw the 32-year-old, he finished 13th in one of the strongest fields of the season at The Players Championship.

He's gained strokes on approach in six consecutive events to start his 2023 season and ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and fifth in Opportunities Gained in the field.

Fowler has some encouraging history at TPC San Antonio. He missed the cut last year but finished in 17th in both of his previous two starts at the course (2019 and '21).

Everyone loves a feel-good story, but Fowler is the class of the field and has a real chance to win.

Aguiar: Nick Taylor (-110) over Adam Schenk (DraftKings)

Shifts from one price point to another can put you in a precarious position if you start chasing the recent potential of a player. Some situations, like Jason Day or an upcoming star, might need more consideration.

However, I tend to believe the matchup options are when we can attack journeyman golfers that are overachieving their baseline outputs.

My model ranked Schenk 97th in Weighted Strokes Gained: Total for this course, a return that placed him 53 spots below his baseline. More trouble started to loom when we looked at his projection for GIR percentage and weighted proximity.

If the version of Schenk that has outproduced his around the green baseline over the past two months doesn't show up in Texas, there is real missed-cut potential against a golfer that is wildly underrated in my model when we talk about Nick Taylor.

Bretwisch: Alex Noren +3600 (FanDuel)

I’ll take the risk on a name-brand guy like Alex Noren at an inflated price of 46/1. Some of the bookmakers I respect in this space have Noren as low as +3300. He projects fourth in my model’s expected strokes gained putting and top-20 in strokes gained approach. This is the first time he’s been inside the top-50 combined in each category all season.

I’ll take the number grab here and hope Noren’s recent iron play can stay hot.

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