2023 Valero Texas Open Odds, Picks: Our 5 Best Bets Include Rickie Fowler

We have one more stop before Augusta National.

Our team of golf betting analysts have made their Valero Texas Open picks for the week. We have you covered in the outright market, as well as a prop and matchup pick.

After scouring the Valero Texas Open odds, check out our best bets below.

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Favorite We’re Backing

• Jason Sobel: Davis Riley
• Chris Murphy: J.J. Spaun
• Matt Vincenzi:  Rickie Fowler
• Spencer Aguiar: Alex Noren
• Nick Bretwisch:Chris Kirk

Best Long Shot

• Sobel: Ben Martin
• Murphy: Patton Kizzire
• Vincenzi: Ben Martin
• Aguiar: Joseph Bramlett
• Bretwisch: Brandon Wu

Biggest Bust

• Sobel: Tyrrell Hatton
• Murphy: Hideki Matsuyama
• Vincenzi: Taylor Montgomery
• Aguiar: Adam Schenk
• Bretwisch: Cam Davis

Contrarian Player To Target

• Sobel: Ryan Fox
• Murphy: Kevin Tway
• Vincenzi: Matt Kuchar
• Aguiar: Alex Smalley
• Bretwisch: Will Gordon

Trend That Shapes Our Betting Strategy

Sobel: Two years ago, the final leaderboard on the Oaks Course at TPC San Antonio included six players inside the top 10 who were also top 10 in strokes gained on approach shots, which fits the weekly narrative to which we so often ascribe: Essentially, if you hit your irons really well, you’ve got a chance to win.

Last year, however, when J.J. Spaun triumphed with a winning total of 13-under, just one of those players inside the final top 10 was also in the top 10 with his irons and a whopping six of those contending players were outside the top-30.

What does all of this tell us? Great iron play is always more advantageous than poor iron play (no kidding), but there’s no singular way to win the Valero.

Murphy: Once again the state of Texas seems to bring the best out of certain players. There is a list of names, some with an association to the state and others with none that seem to pile up top 10s in the Lonestar State. I’ll be using some of that territorial history to go alongside some strong ball striking needed for success at TPC San Antonio to help form my card this week.

Aguiar: TPC San Antonio is a ball-striker's course that still manages to produce varying degrees of importance to the short game.

Since the field hits seven percent fewer greens here than average, the 3.3% increase in dispersion of scoring for around the green is pronounced, and we see that trend continue when we dive into the 4% upsurge in putting from 5-15 feet.

Bretwisch: Ball strikers in solid form that are also gaining strokes off the tee. I know the data doesn’t necessarily support that, but previous winners have come into this event gaining significant strokes with their irons (especially 75-100 yards) and driver off-the-tee.

Give me pure ball-strikers in good form who either light it up with their expected proximities or are a top putter in the field.

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Our Best Bets

Sobel: Cameron Davis +5000 (Caesars)

I was very bullish on Davis entering this year, as were many others. And then … it all seemingly fell apart.

The Aussie started the year innocuously enough, finishing T-32 at the Sony Open, then proceeded to miss the cut in five consecutive starts. For comparison’s sake, he MC’d in just seven events last season.

From an outsider’s perspective, it appeared maybe he’d just lost his mojo, but a few weeks ago at The Players, he explained that he’d been ill during the first few months of the year and had taken a while to recover. Davis finished in a share of sixth place that week at TPC Sawgrass and followed with a 2-1-0 record in last week’s WGC-Dell Technologies Match Play, posting 11 birdies in his final two matches, victories against Tom Hoge and Aaron Wise.

All of this has me bullish on Davis once again, and he remains a terrific value at this number against a somewhat deflated field this week.

Murphy: Patton Kizzire — Top 20 (+300, BetMGM)

I’ll be betting Patton Kizzire this week up and down the board, including for the win, which you can still find at triple digits over at BetRivers.

It’s certainly a stretch to expect Kizzire to cash an outright ticket, but I love the form he has coming into the week having gained better than two shots on approach on both fields at The Players and Valspar where he finished with his first top 10 of the season.

Kizzire is one of those guys I mentioned previously with a run of really good play in Texas, including four top 11 finishes and a T9 at this event in 2021. If he can continue his strong form on approach he has a chance to contend in a weaker field like the one set to tee it up this week and a top 20 is a nice, comfortable spot at a good +300 number to make him my best bet of the week.

Vincenzi: Rickie Fowler +1800 (bet365)

Rickie Fowler heads to Texas in need of a victory to get himself into the Masters field next week. Luckily for him, he's one of the best players in the field.

While it would be an incredible story for Fowler to win his way into Augusta National, that isn't the reason I'm picking him to get it done. Fowler is playing some great golf this season. The last time we saw the 32-year-old, he finished 13th in one of the strongest fields of the season at The Players Championship.

He's gained strokes on approach in six consecutive events to start his 2023 season and ranks first in the field in Strokes Gained: Approach in his past 24 rounds. He also ranks fourth in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and fifth in Opportunities Gained in the field.

Fowler has some encouraging history at TPC San Antonio. He missed the cut last year but finished in 17th in both of his previous two starts at the course (2019 and '21).

Everyone loves a feel-good story, but Fowler is the class of the field and has a real chance to win.

Aguiar: Nick Taylor (-110) over Adam Schenk (DraftKings)

Shifts from one price point to another can put you in a precarious position if you start chasing the recent potential of a player. Some situations, like Jason Day or an upcoming star, might need more consideration.

However, I tend to believe the matchup options are when we can attack journeyman golfers that are overachieving their baseline outputs.

My model ranked Schenk 97th in Weighted Strokes Gained: Total for this course, a return that placed him 53 spots below his baseline. More trouble started to loom when we looked at his projection for GIR percentage and weighted proximity.

If the version of Schenk that has outproduced his around the green baseline over the past two months doesn't show up in Texas, there is real missed-cut potential against a golfer that is wildly underrated in my model when we talk about Nick Taylor.

Bretwisch: Alex Noren +3600 (FanDuel)

I’ll take the risk on a name-brand guy like Alex Noren at an inflated price of 46/1. Some of the bookmakers I respect in this space have Noren as low as +3300. He projects fourth in my model’s expected strokes gained putting and top-20 in strokes gained approach. This is the first time he’s been inside the top-50 combined in each category all season.

I’ll take the number grab here and hope Noren’s recent iron play can stay hot.

Pick: Alex Noren +3600

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