2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Picks, Odds: Expert Bets for Corey Conners & Billy Horschel

2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Picks

Here's everything you need to know about the 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii — our expert bets and mega guide for the PGA Tour's first full-field event of 2024.

This week’s 2024 Sony Open in Hawaii represents the first full-field tournament of the PGA Tour season – well, at least if we’re considering limited-field signature events to still be the outliers and not the norm.

More importantly – from a prognostication perspective – the season’s second event offers one of my favorite edges that we annually witness.

In betting, everyone wants to find a sharp angle. Whether that means finding the college football game with an overinflated point total due to windy conditions or identifying the NBA team that always seems to cover weekend home games, we’re all seeking that edge, no matter how slight, which pushes us in a specific direction.

That doesn’t happen as much in golf, at least not on a large-scale basis. Sure, there are venues which suit the biggest hitters and others which suit ball-strikers, but trend-spotting in an individual sport doesn’t uncover nearly as many previously hidden gems.

All of which makes this one so intriguing, as it lends itself to finding one of these rare edges.

Let’s get right to it: For a few decades, the PGA Tour calendar has started at Kapalua and continued at Waialae for a two-week Aloha Swing. Though the courses are on different islands and have almost no intrinsic characteristics in common, those who compete at the first one often have an edge at the second.

That shouldn’t come as such a surprise.

From getting a chance to dial in some new clubs to getting adjusted to the time zone to simply getting a couple of beach days out of the system, those who played the first event have proven to be better equipped for success at the second.

And yet, trying to play this edge burned us last year. Before I get into why, I’ll take the long-term numbers over the short-term ones from 2023 alone. Let’s take a look at those numbers over the past seven years:

In the half-dozen editions of the Sony Open prior to last year, players who competed at Kapalua won five of them. The Kapalua-to-Waialae guys accounted for just 15.9 percent of the Sony Open field but included 39.4 percent of the players to finish inside the top 10 (plus ties) during that time. Extend that to making the cut, and 73 percent (100 of 137) of players who competed in the first cashed a check in the second.

Then last year happened.

I have no great explanation for it, other than to suggest that even the most telling trends can be quickly undone. While 13 of the 19 players who competed in both still made the Sony cut last year, none finished better than a share of 12^th place, as the numbers paled in comparison to previous years.

If that’s enough to dissuade you from backing those who played last week, I suppose I can understand that, but I’ll stick with that long-term trend here and give a little edge to the guys who are already warm – if for no other reason than there’s strength in numbers, as a beefed-up field of 59 at The Sentry leaves us with 38 who are making the 37-minute journey to Oahu, which is double last year’s total.

My selections for the week start with one of these 38 – a player I mentioned as an outright play at Kapalua, but one whose skillset is better suited for Waialae.

2024 Sony Open in Hawaii Picks

Outright Winner (Short odds)

One player to win the tournament

Corey Conners (+3000)

Yeah, I know: Corey Conners was one of my outright picks last week, where he finished in a share of 33^rd place, and now he’s half the price in a bigger field. That doesn’t exactly smell like a winning formula. Even though I’ll readily take the L for that one, I was always looking ahead to this week and beyond, as I still believe in Conners’ ball-striking abilities and think this is going to be a big year for him.

At Kapalua, he ranked ninth in both off the tee numbers and approach stats, but he was 53^rd in putting, none of which should come as a shock. This week’s venue, though, fits his game better, as it won’t take something in the high-20s under par to contend.

In fact, I like him so much as a course fit for Waialae that I’m picking him here for a second consecutive year, as his 25/1 odds in 2023 yielded a T12 result – his fourth top-12 finish in his last four starts at this one.

Outright Winner (Long odds)

One player to win the tournament

Billy Horschel (+8000)

In last week’s preview, I mentioned number-hunting – betting a player based on a number which seems too inflated. That’s hardly a new concept, but it is one which continues to make the most sense early in the year, when there isn’t necessarily any individual form to review.

Last season wasn’t Billy Horschel’s best, by any measure, but he enters 2024 with a price that feels too high after playing some decent golf toward the end of last year. Splitting time between the PGA Tour and DP World Tour, as he often does in the later months, Horschel finished in the top 20 in five of his last seven starts.

A notoriously hard worker, it shouldn’t surprise anyone if he begins this campaign with that same type of form. Though the Sony Open hasn’t been the site of much success, he did finish T7 here three years ago, proving that he can contend on this course.

One-and-Done Picks

Other OADers

Potential selections for one-and-done pools

Russell Henley (+2200)

Full disclosure: Before the odds were released, Russell Henley was a close second to Corey Conners for my favorite outright, though I didn’t love his ball-striking numbers as much from a week ago. When the prices went public, there was an even greater discrepancy between the two, as Henley opened eight points shorter.

That essentially became a non-starter for me in the outright marketplace – I can only point to a victory in 2013 and runner-up finish two years ago as the reasons for such a differential – but I wouldn’t be surprised if those numbers are much closer by first tee time Thursday morning.

In any case, Henley still makes for a smart OAD play because he checks most of the boxes we’re looking for this week.

Akshay Bhatia (+5000)

If there’s a theme to this preview, it’s that you’ll find a lot of names who played last week but are better suited for this week at Waialae.

Akshay Bhatia found himself in contention on the weekend at Kapalua, but a final-round 71 doesn’t help much when the scoring average is five strokes fewer. He does make more sense for this one, though it should be noted that he’s making his tournament debut this week.

Alex Noren (+5500)

This one is for the contrarians out there. He didn’t play last week and has only played this event once before (T32 in 2020), so Alex Noren won’t be on anybody’s radar for this one.

Maybe you have multiple entries and are keeping one as differentiated as possible; maybe you just like going against the grain. Unless your fellow OADers are reading this and are similarly inclined, I can’t imagine Noren getting much love here, despite the fact that he’s a solid ball-striker and putter whose game should match up well with Waialae.

Placement Market Bets

Top Five

One player to finish in the top five

Eric Cole (+700 for Top-five Finish)

I spoke with Eric Cole on my SiriusXM PGA Tour Radio show “Hitting the Green” last week after it was announced that he’d won last season’s Rookie of the Year award. While I’ve found him over the past year to be extremely pleasant and thoughtful in interviews, I always get sense that his internal clock is telling him he could be beating balls at the range instead, which I mean as a compliment.

Here’s another: He plays like a 35-year-old who spent a decade and a half toiling on the mini-tours, which is to say, he’s aggressive, takes chances and has an urgency about him. Most players, even if they won’t admit it, tend to have some sense of complacency once they reach the highest level, but I never sense that from Cole.

In any case, coming off a T14 last week that included a final-round 65, he should be ready to step on that gas pedal once again.

Top 10

One player to finish in the top 10

Matt Kuchar (+400 for Top-10 Finish)

If you’d bet Matt Kuchar for a top 10 every time he teed it up at the Sony Open, you’d have … well, more money than you have right now. Kuchar owns eight top 10s in 18 career starts, including a victory in 2019 and seventh-place results in each of the last two years.

With top-10 finishes in two of his last three PGA Tour starts as he is motivated by his son, Cameron, who’s a budding star in the game, I expect a season of rejuvenation for a player currently 55^th in the OWGR who’s trying to return to the Masters for the first time in three years.

That journey starts this week.

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Top 20

One player to finish in the top 20

Kevin Kisner (+900 for Top-20 Finish)

Not only did Kevin Kisner do an admirable job in his initial stint in the NBC/Golf Channel broadcast booth this week, but he might’ve set a new standard. I have no inside information on future plans for any of the networks, but it’s hard to imagine a TV exec watching/listening to Kiz and not immediately understanding the inherent value of having a current player in that role on a regular basis.

It might be impossible to fill that position every week, but it’s a massive upgrade as an entertainment product and should serve as a de facto interview process for anyone with designs on the role in their post-career future, even if that’s many years down the road.

As far as Kisner is concerned, he’s got at least one more week in the booth at the WM Phoenix Open, but I’m sure nothing will motivate him more than having to talk about his buddies last week. Not that he needs much motivation at Waialae, where he finished T3 last year and owns four top-five finishes in the past seven years.

Don’t be afraid to sprinkle a couple of crisp ones on that massive 350/1 outright number, either.

Top 30

One player to finish in the top 30

Taylor Montgomery (+220 for Top-30 Finish)

In last year’s edition of the Sony Open, Taylor Montgomery was in the midst of a brilliant start to his rookie campaign, as his T12 here was one of eight top-15 finishes in his first nine starts. Things cooled off for him pretty quickly, but word is that he’s been working hard on the ball-striking areas of his game, as evidenced by four top-35 finishes to close out last season.

We know he owns the talent, but with better form and confidence, expect him to rack up those impressive finishes soon enough.

Top 40

One player to finish in the top 40

Justin Suh (+120 for Top-40 Finish)

After finishing T41 last year, I’m making the extremely bold prediction that Justin Suh can move up another notch and cash top-40 tickets at this one.

He’s a golfer I especially like on his native West Coast, so expect to see his name in plenty of previews over the next two months of the year.

DFS Picks

DFS Free Bingo Square

A safe plug-and-play option for DFS lineups

J.T. Poston

Fresh off a T5 at The Sentry, I think J.T. Poston might make more sense atop your lineups than Ludvig Aberg, Tyrrell Hatton or Matt Fitzpatrick – the three Europeans to whom many DFSers will flock.

While his numbers at Waialae are average at best, Poston is a player we shouldn’t dig too deep on when it comes to course history, because quite frankly, he’s much better in all facets of the game than he was three or four years ago – and it’s not like he was bad back then. At 40/1, he makes some sense in the outright marketplace, as well.

DFS Mid-Tier

A medium-priced option for DFS lineups

Stephan Jaeger

Admittedly, I don’t often differentiate in this section of the preview whether I’m selecting a player for cash games or GPPs, but Stephan Jaeger represents more of a cash-game play. It’s not that he doesn’t own a ceiling with some win equity, but he’s proven to have a very high floor for a player of his level, much like we saw from Maverick McNealy before he was injured last year.

If you need a guy who will make the cut, post some birdies and build up points, Jaeger should do that.

DFS ‘Dog

A lower-priced option for DFS lineups

David Lipsky

Last year, David Lipsky posted scores of 65-66-66 to enter the final round of the Sony Open in a share of second place. He carded a 69 that day and finished in fourth, but his prices – both betting and DFS – appear to be a reflection of everyone forgetting that ever happened.

This is a very good course for him, and while he might not duplicate last year’s result, he should own plenty of value.

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Sony Open Misc. Picks

First-Round Leader

One player to post the low round Thursday

Byeong Hun An (+5000 for FRL)

If we’re looking to those who competed last week for our full-tourney bets, then we might want to look even closer at them for FRLs. Last year, Jordan Spieth held a share of the opening-round lead (with Chris Kirk and Taylor Montgomery), only to miss the cut one day later.

I’m looking for a low one out of Byeong Hun An, who posted scores of 68-64-68-66 in last week’s solo-fourth finish. For a guy who ranked 11^th in R1 scoring average last season, let’s hope he’s got another solid number in the holster for this Thursday.

Matchup Man

One player who should beat comparable players

Emiliano Grillo (+9000)

If Billy Horschel was the most egregious mispricing that I noticed when odds were released, then Emiliano Grillo was a close second at 90/1.

Alright, so his T43 last week wasn’t anything special, nor is his record at Waialae, with a best finish of 21^st in seven previous starts, but there are more than a couple of similarities between this venue and Colonial, where he won last year.

At the very least, he should offer some nice value against other players in this range.

Also Receiving Votes

Other players who should provide value

Brian Harman (+2500), Adam Hadwin (+5500), Aaron Rai (+6500), Ben Kohles (+9000), Greyson Sigg (+15000), Alejandro Tosti (+18000), Tyler Duncan (+18000)