The Northern Trust: Looking for a long shot
On a week where the course has so many unknowns, I’ve taken a more conservative approach than I would in a normal week.
It’s one of those tournaments where I’ve stayed away from the top of the board and am specifically looking at long shots.
I started my card with Daniel Berger at 66/1. Prior to his missed cut at the PGA, he’d been in good form with three top 5s in a six tournament span. Berger is a guy who has been trending toward a win against a strong field, so at this number, I think he’s got some value.
I’m also backing a couple of guys from last week who were near the top of the field tee to green, but just couldn’t hole putts.
Jason Dufner (75/1) and Ryan Moore (100/1) were both in the top 5 Strokes Gained: Tee to Green at Wyndham, but lost strokes every round with the putter. At those numbers, I’ll hope the tee to green game carries over and they can putt somewhere near the field average.
Without players at the top of the board on my card, it opens up the option to let this tournament play out for a day or two and get more aggressive on the weekend once I have a better feel for how this new course will play. That’s the strategy I’m recommending this week.
Full card (Units played)
Daniel Berger 66/1 (.55)
Tony Finau 75/1 (.50)
Jason Dufner 75/1 (.50)
J.B. Holmes 80/1 (.45)
Ryan Moore 100/1 (.35)
Ollie Schniederjans 100/1 (.35)
Xander Schauffele 150/1 (.25)
Kyle Stanley 200/1 (.20)
Sung Kang 250/1 (.15)
First Round Leaders
Charl Schwartzel 85/1
Bubba Watson 90/1
Xander Schauffele 100/1
Keegan Bradley 100/1
Sung Kang 110/1
David Lingmerth 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Harris English 150/1
For the first round leader plays, I’m playing a quarter unit and targeting A.M. tee times. Greens with Poa Annua grass like the ones at Glen Oaks can get bumpy in the afternoon and make putting more difficult.
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Joshua has spent the last five years writing about sports and the last 10 years betting them, mostly on golf. One of approximately five people who will watch the PGA over the NFL in November. Follow him on Twitter @JoshuaPerry22
Photo: © Rob Schumacher-USA TODAY Sports