Who’s the Best Value Outside of Jason Day at Quail Hollow?

Credit:

Jim Dedmon-USA TODAY Sports

With one round to go, the Wells Fargo Championship is Jason Day’s to lose. He heads into Sunday with a two-shot lead over Nick Watney and is the odds-on favorite at -140, according to Sportsbook.ag.

Day (pictured above) has been relatively quiet since his win at Torrey Pines, but he does have a pair of ninth-place finishes at Quail Hallow in his past two starts.

Many of the other top players, like Rory McIlroy (seven stroke back) and Rickie Fowler (six strokes back), are probably too far behind Day to mount a charge, so that will aid Day’s chances for a win.

Watney (two shots back) and Bryson DeChambeau (three shots back) are next on the odds list at +800. Paul Casey, who’s three back, is listed at +900.

Phil Mickelson (five back) and Charl Schwartzel (four back) are the only other big names inside the top 10 and both come in at +2500.

So who’s the best value entering Sunday?

Casey has a lot of intrigue at +900. He finally broke a long winless drought at the Valspar this year, and if the course plays a little more difficult during the final round, his tee-to-green game may outshine Day. While Day has established himself as the front runner (see his recent history as a 54-hole leader below), he’s still below the field average in strokes gained: approach.

In the matchups, I’m going way down the board and looking to target Troy Merritt (-125) over Joel Dahmen. Merritt ranks sixth this week in strokes gained approach among the players who made the cut, while Dahmen is fourth in strokes gained putting and is losing ground to the field from tee-to-green.

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