Will Lack of Distance Hurt Molinari’s U.S. Open Chances?

Will Lack of Distance Hurt Molinari’s U.S. Open Chances? article feature image
Credit:

Apr 12, 2018; Hilton Joshua S. Kelly-USA TODAY Sports. Captioned: Francesco Molinari

For analysis of the top-85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course plus a variety of weighted metrics.


The Info: Francesco Molinari

DFS Pricing: $7,600 DraftKings, $9,200 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): MC, T23, T27, N/A, MC

Odds: +6600 to win, +450 top-10 finish, +225 top-20 finish, -400 to make cut, +275 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +6600 to win

Best Matchup Value: Patrick Cantlay (-115) over Francesco Molinari

Tee Times: 1:25 p.m. (Thursday); 7:40 a.m. (Friday)

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The Outlook

Molinari may be a sleeper this week after a couple great outings in Europe, but I’m not buying him. His lack of distance off the tee limits his upside on a course of this length. We’ve seen it for nearly a decade with him at the U.S. Open. In eight appearances, he’s missed the cut four times and has never finished in the top 20. When he’s in the triple digits, I won’t argue with someone wanting to fire a dart and hope it hits, but I want a better track record for a guy in the +6000 range.


The Metrics

Here’s how Molinari ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: T16th
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: T19th
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 14th
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: T76th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 41st

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.