Vincenzi: Bet Justin Thomas to Win WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession

Vincenzi: Bet Justin Thomas to Win WGC-Workday Championship at the Concession article feature image
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Ben Jared/PGA TOUR via Getty Images. Pictured: Justin Thomas.

Inexplicably, Justin Thomas is 90-1 (DraftKings) to win this week’s WGC-Workday Championship after the conclusion of Thursday’s first round action.

Following a horrendous showing last week at Riviera, Thomas started slow at The Concession and was +4 after his first six holes of the event. However, he managed to pull it together and get in the clubhouse at +1 after making birdie on three of his last four holes of the round.

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The main reason for Thomas’ struggles was his inability to get the ball in the fairway with his driver. He lost 4.4 strokes off the tee in Round 1 (a sleeve of balls in the drink will do that). If JT can’t solve his problems on the tee box, he won’t be able to get back into the tournament.

In spite of the bad start, there is some reason for optimism going into Round 2. As bad as he was off of the tee, Thomas was equally as good with his irons. He gained 4.0 strokes on approach, which led the field, and made some excellent shots on the back nine to salvage the round.

While not ideal, seven strokes back after one round isn’t too steep of a hole for Thomas to climb out of. In fact, in his most recent win (2020 WGC St. Jude), he was seven strokes back after the second round and still managed to chase down Brooks Koepka and win the tournament. Not only did he win that event, he won it by a comfortable three shots!

A major reason why eight of Thomas’ 13 PGA TOUR wins have come at no-cut events is because they create the feeling that he’s never out of the tournament. I fully expect him to come out tomorrow firing at pins with nothing to lose to get himself right in contention by the end of the week.

Could the struggles continue for Justin for the remainder of the week? Sure. But at 90-1, Thomas winning the tournament is absolutely in play and worth a shot.

If anyone can do it, JT is the guy.

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