The 2026 Genesis Invitational tees off with its first round on Thursday morning from Riviera Country Club in Los Angeles.
This week's event features a number of top players as the second Signature Event of the season, but the overwhelming favorite is again Scottie Scheffler, who checks in at +305 odds to win.
Last week's tournament in Pebble Beach was won by Collin Morikawa, who secured his first victory since 2023. Morikawa sunk a birdie putt on 18 to beat Min Woo Lee and Sepp Straka by a stroke. Morikawa is +3000 to go back-to-back, Lee is +4200, and Straka is +4900.
The defending champion of the Genesis Invitational is Rory McIlroy, who checks in behind Scheffler as the tournament's second favorite at +1275 odds.
From favorites to long-shots, props, and more, these are our staff's 2026 Genesis Invitational best bets and favorite golf picks.
PGA Tour Expert Picks: Genesis Invitational
Scottie Scheffler First Round Leader (+1100)
By Tony Sartori
Now may be the time to buy low on Scottie Scheffler in the first-round leader market after back-to-back poor opening rounds. Slow starts have cost him in each of those two tournaments, as he went on to dominate the field over the final three rounds both times.
A strong start is likely to be a point of emphasis for him this week at The Riviera Country Club, a venue that suits Scheffler’s skill set. Riviera is a demanding course that requires precision with mid- to long irons and fairway woods, as roughly 74% of approach shots come from 150 yards or more.
That setup plays directly into Scheffler’s strengths. He ranks in the 99th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach from 150-plus yards. Despite his recent Thursday struggles, Scheffler has historically been an elite starter.
Last season, he led the PGA Tour in first-round scoring average.
Matt Fitzpatrick Top-20 Finish (+125)
By Kyle Murray
In my model, Matt Fitzpatrick grades out as the fifth-best player in this field for this event.
He is coming off back-to-back finishes inside the top 15, and he also won on the DP World Tour back in November.
Over the last six months, Fitzpatrick is seventh in Strokes Gained: Tee to Green in this stacked field. He also ranks eighth in Strokes Gained: Approach and 10th in total strokes gained in that time.
Xander Schauffele To Not Finish in Top 20 (+113)
Prediction markets offer both sides of every trade, so you can finally access markets like players to not score touchdowns, not win a golf tournament, teams to not win a championship.
I compared our Rotogrinders model projections to listed prices at Kalshi for this week's 2026 Genesis Invitational, and not surprisingly, there are 55 "no" edges (players to not win, or not finish in the top 20, etc.) before we get our first "yes" (players to win, finish in the top 20, etc.).
Xander Schauffele's long-term form is great but our model is bearish on him in L.A. this week, and shows a ton of value on a not top 20, which you can get on Kalshi at about +113. He's been T19, T41, and missed cut in his first three starts this season.
Tommy Fleetwood Outright Winner Without Scheffler (+1800)
Tommy Fleetwood has been on a tear for the better part of a year. He had a few close calls on the PGA TOUR in 2025 and finally broke through with a win at the TOUR Championship.
In 8 starts since, he has picked up another win and 3 more top 10 finishes. He teed it up in America for the first time in 2026 last week and finished T4 at the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am.
A deeper dive into his statistics show that he was positive in all four of the strokes gained categories, which is really encouraging, as we are heading to a course that tests all aspects of a golfer's game. Fleetwood has played well here in the past, finishing T10 in 2024 and T20 in 2023.
Maverick McNealy (-120) Over Jordan Spieth
There are a handful of golfers this week that I am looking to take on in matchups. You have an eclectic group of names that may present this boom-or-bust nature. However, the one that my model thought was the biggest up-or-down option to oppose was Jordan Spieth. Go figure that a model would believe Spieth is nearly impossible to predict.
That answer raises some concerns, since upside could play in a tournament with a fringe cut. We will see this 72-man field get whittled down to the top-50 and ties after Friday, but Spieth profiles as an option who has virtually no floor and is always susceptible to a round of pure chaos.
My model ranked Spieth outside of the top 50 of this field for Weighted Strokes Gained Total. What that essentially means is that the dispersion marks for top-10 performers at the course over the last five years don't view him as a naturally great course fit based on his two-year data sample.
That number does rise about 15 spots when using only 2026. Still, I believe this is one of those situations where Maverick McNealy's safety and Poa acumen should play nicely in a matchup that is going to overrate Spieth from his performance at Pebble Beach.
My model thought Spieth should have been 55th on the leaderboard entering round four (he was 12th). We eventually saw him slip to 29th and perform closer to his projections for the week, which pushed me to back McNealy, who ranked inside the top-40 across all seven main statistical categories I ran for Riviera Country Club.
We might have to sweat this for four days, but I am hoping McNealy's safety shines through against a boom-or-bust opponent.
