Valero Texas Open Picks 2024: 3 TPC San Antonio Outright Bets

Valero Texas Open Picks 2024: 3 TPC San Antonio Outright Bets article feature image

Via Getty Images/Action Network Design. Pictured: Matt Fitzpatrick (right) and Collin Morikawa (left).

The PGA Tour season continues this week with the Valero Texas Open 2024 hosted by TPC San Antonio (Oaks Course) in San Antonio, Texas.

Our golf betting experts have already peppered the outright betting board at open on Monday, and they have bets for three different golfers ready.

Find our Valero Texas Open Picks for 2024 below.

Valero Texas Open Picks 2024

Spencer Aguiar: Matt Fitzpatrick +3000 (bet365)

My model found a ton of value in that upper-middle tier of outright odds when analyzing Matt Fitzpatrick, Alex Noren and Tommy Fleetwood this week.

Most don't necessarily think of these three as win-equity candidates because only one of them has actually won on the PGA Tour. Still, the fact that Fitzpatrick was that option (with two wins at the U.S. Open and RBC Heritage) led me down this path when looking for my best bet on the board.

Fitzpatrick's statistical profile was as great as we have ever had in my sheet during any event, ranking inside the top 10 for Weighted Scrambling, Projected Strokes Gained: Total for TPC San Antonio, Long-term TPC production, Wind Play and the all-important answer of Aggression this week, a category Fitzpatrick ranked first in this field.

These par-5s are not simple, and the players who have shown the propensity to take on added risk have typically won this title.

Corey Conners has provided two of those victories over the past five years by ranking third in that output this week, making Fitzpatrick's top-graded mark all that much more enticing to take a swing at this week at 28-1.

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Matt Gannon: Collin Morikawa +3200 (bet365)

Strokes Gained: Motivation will be a key factor at TPC San Antonio with Augusta National looming next week.

How many golfers are here to give their best effort to win the Valero Texas Open, and how many are working on a few more things in preparation for next week? Sure, everyone in this field would trade a win at TPC San Antonio for a win at Augusta, and no one will show up and “not try,” but the motivation factor is surely real this week.

Collin Morikawa has been plotting along in 2024 by not really doing anything great but also not doing anything horrific. Oddly enough, he's lost strokes on approach in his last two starts, which is surely a concern as he is one of the elite approach players in the last decade.

If he is losing the best part of his game, he is in trouble. Knowing all of this, he has had two weeks to work out the kinks and bounce back, which is the most important stat in relation to success around TPC San Antonio. Also, I am taking his results over the last few months with a grain of salt.

Morikawa has played in six events this season, with five of them being Signature Events, and the other being the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines. Morikawa's prior two non-Signature Event starts were the Zozo Championship in the fall and the Rocket Mortgage Classic in the summer, which resulted in a win and loss in a playoff.

Maybe Morikawa is on the Tony Finau path where he only contends in weaker events!

All jokes aside, it would be very on brand for him to plot along and pop up for a win the week before a major when no one is expecting it. Plus, the course fit checks a ton of boxes because of his driving accuracy and elite approach play.

Tony Sartori: Corey Conners +2700 (bet365)

Zach Johnson won back-to-back Valero Texas Opens in 2008 and 2009, and we could see history repeat as Corey Conners defends here this week. Not only did Conners win in here 2023, but he also won as a Monday Qualifier in 2019 and now looks for his third victory at a venue he dominates.

On top of his two wins here, Conners also posted T35, T14 and T26 finishes across his three other appearances at TPC San Antonio, while failing to ever miss the cut. It makes sense that this Greg Norman-designed course complements Conners’ game, given that it is a track that rewards ball-striking over anything else.

That is the strongest part of Conners’ game, as he has gained strokes on Approach in 12 consecutive tournaments and ranks sixth on Tour in that SG: Approach. He has made the weekend in all 12 of those tournaments, posting five top-25 finishes over that stretch.

Putting has kept him from winning, but that can turn around this week on greens that he knows very well. Additionally, Conners is coming off of his best week in terms of SG: Putting this season when he gained nearly three strokes on the greens at THE PLAYERS Championship.

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