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We haven't picked a winner in a while, but the top 10 and top 20 bets have kept us afloat. We owe a shoutout to Chan Kim for cashing a top 10 (+900) and a top 20 (+380) for us last week at the Butterfield Bermuda Championship.
The PGA TOUR now heads to Mexico for the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. There are 120 golfers in the field set to tee it up at Vidanta Vallarta, which has hosted this event in each of the last four years.
Let's take a look at my VidantaWorld Mexico Open picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at Vidanta Vallarta. Make sure to download the Action Network App for more picks and analysis!
VidantaWorld Mexico Open Preview
Vidanta Vallarta is a unique test on the PGA TOUR. It's a Par 71 that measures 7,331 yards. The layout is different than most Par 71s, as it features four Par 5s and five Par 3s. The course is certainly on the easier side when it comes to scoring, but I wouldn't call this a pure birdie fest. The average winning score at this event over the last four years has been -20.
The course has very little rough on the property. It's essentially fairway, bunkers, waste areas, and water hazards. The fairways are extremely wide (43 yards on average), which is why golfers hit driver on 86% of tee shots at this event last year.
This is one of the most driver-heavy courses on TOUR, and Driving Distance matters more here than almost any other course.
The greens at Vidanta Vallarta are large (7,000 square feet) and feature paspalum grass. This is a thicker blade of bermuda, and it is much slower than most greens. The greens will run at 11 on the stimpmeter.
While the average Greens in Regulation rate here is close to TOUR average, scrambling hasn't been particularly important. This is likely because the scrambling success rate is low for everyone, giving an advantage to the ball strikers who hit a lot of greens.
I'm not focusing solely on bombers this week, but I do want my golfers to at least be above the field average in Driving Distance. Approach play is always important, and long iron play will be key this week, as 40% of approach shots will come from over 200 yards. I'm also looking at recent form, as this tends to be a stretch of golf where we see a lot of hot streaks.
VidantaWorld Mexico Open Predictions, Picks
As usual, I ran 20,000 simulations for this week's event. The graphic below shows my model probabilities, current market odds, and the differences for each betting market.
Ben James to Win +1850 (DraftKings)
If James had made the cut and finished T20 last week, he would likely be priced in the +1300 to +1600 range. I'm not worried about a single missed cut, especially on a less-than-driver course in Bermuda. Before the missed cut, he had rattled off three straight top-5 finishes.
He won everything imaginable in college and has a lot to play for here in the fall. He wants to work his way into the biggest events in 2027. His statistics are elite across the board, and he's 1st in this field in strokes gained per round on driver-heavy courses. If you have been betting on him over the last few months, there's no reason to hop off at +1850.
Blades Brown to Win +3500 (Caesars) / Top 10 +380 (FanDuel) / Top 20 +170 (FanDuel)
Ben James and Jackson Koivun are getting all of the headlines as the best up-and-comers on TOUR, but don't forget about Brown. He's actually two years younger than Koivun and four years younger than James.
He’s finished T22 or better in nine of his last 11 starts with four top-10 finishes during that stretch. He most recently finished second at the Korn Ferry Tour Championship a few weeks ago.
While he’s not a pure bomber, he still gains strokes off the tee thanks to his accuracy. He’s top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Weighted Strokes Gained: Approach, and Expected Hole Performance.
He’s also first in the field in Bogey Avoidance, which should come in handy with water hazards on 12 of the 18 holes here. He played this event last year with much worse incoming form and finished T34.
Jackson Suber to Win (+4000, bet365) / Top 10 (+470, FanDuel) / Top 20 (+195, Caesars)
Suber is a relatively new name on the PGA TOUR, but he’s not an up-and-comer straight out of college.
He’s 27 years old and earned his TOUR card in 2024 by playing well on the Korn Ferry Tour. He was hit-or-miss in 2025, but he’s having a career year in 2026. He’s been a solid cut maker and has four top 10s in his last 21 events.
He’s long off the tee, and top 10 in this field in Strokes Gained: Approach, Weighted Strokes Gained: Approach, Expected Hole Performance, and Birdie or Better %. He also has a good track record on driver-heavy courses, which is another reason to like him this week.
Rico Hoey Top 10 +420 (Caesars)
I've bet on Hoey far too often to expect him to win a PGA TOUR event anytime soon. His ball striking is good enough, but his putter lets him down far too often, so I'll take him to finish in the top 10 this week at +420. He's long and straight off the tee, and he's an excellent iron player.
He's missed the cut at this event in each of the last two years, but he has historically played well on driver-heavy courses and on courses with large greens.
He's finished in the top 15 in two of his last five events on TOUR, so hopefully he can carry some of that momentum into this week.
Kevin Yu Top 20 (+210, Caesars)
We think of Yu as a pure bomber, but he’s actually dialed back his Driving Distance over the last 18 months. He’s been a little more accurate off the tee, and he’s made improvements with his short game. He’s affordable this week and ranked above the field average in all four of the Strokes Gained categories.
Yu tends to be a streaky golfer, and he’s been in solid form this fall. He missed the cut last week, but I can’t think of a worse course fit for his game.
He’s excellent on driver-heavy courses, so Vidanta Vallarta should be right up his alley. In his first appearance here last year, he finished T45.
Good vibes this week!
