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2022 Kentucky Oaks Weather Forecast, Track Conditions: Rain, Thunderstorms Likely to Hit Churchill Downs (May 6)

2022 Kentucky Oaks Weather Forecast, Track Conditions: Rain, Thunderstorms Likely to Hit Churchill Downs (May 6) article feature image

Matthew Stockman/Getty Images. Pictured: The wet dirt track at Churchill Downs.

It looks like we could be in for a soggy start to Kentucky Derby weekend, with more wet weather expected Friday in Louisville, Ky.

According to the latest forecast from The Weather Channel at 11 a.m. ET, Louisville — home of Churchill Downs — and the surrounding area will likely be dealing with widespread scattered thunderstorms during the 11-race card, with the chance of rain currently sitting at 80 percent.

Kentucky Oaks Day @ChurchillDowns

13 races, 10:30 am – 7 pm ET

Chance of showers & thunderstorms, 73,

Fast, Firm



FS2 10:30 am – 1 pm ET
USA Network 1-6 pm ET
App: Churchill Downs LIVE

Bet @TwinSpires

— Churchill Downs PR (@DerbyMedia) May 6, 2022

The good news — for now — is that track conditions remain fast on the dirt, with the turf course holding firm, according to the latest surface information from Churchill Downs officials.

Early Friday morning, the National Weather Service depicted a more bleak forecast, with the chance of precipitation at 90 percent. New rainfall amounts following scattered overnight showers in the area were expected to potentially bring another half to three quarters of an inch of precipitation.

Precipitation on Kentucky Oaks Day, which kicks off two days of racing, has happened slightly more often than not, according to the NSW annals. Out of the 146 Kentucky Oaks Days, 77 (53%) experienced rain at some point during the day, per historical data.

That said, the only Friday races potentially affected by heavy rain would be the turf stakes events. However, it’s highly unlikely they would be switched to the dirt due to their magnitude and six-figure purses involved.

Friday’s featured race of the day is the $1.25 million Kentucky Oaks, with 14 talented 3-year-old fillies set to leave the starting gate for the Grade 1 event run on the dirt track.

Post time for the Oaks is slated for 5:51 p.m. ET, with race coverage running for 1 p.m. to 6 p.m. ET on USA Network. You can also watch the race via the streaming route at and the NBC Sports app.

On Saturday, the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby, which will feature 20 of the top 3-year-old horses in the world, will be run on the dirt at 1 1/4 miles.

Ethereal Road was scratched this morning from the Derby, as well as Rattle N Roll from the Also Eligible list. That meant Rich Strike, who was the second horse on the AE list, drew into the field.

As for the Derby, post time is set for 6:57 p.m. ET, with race coverage running from 2:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. ET on NBC. Earlier races from Churchill Downs will air on USA Network from 12 p.m. to 2:30 p.m. ET as well.

Our Action Network handicappers will provide their detailed insight, plus updates on the track conditions and weather forecast throughout the two-day racing spectacular, so stay tuned for more information from our crew.

2022 Kentucky Oaks Odds

1 Secret Oath 6-1
2 Nostalgic 15-1
3 Hidden Connection 10-1
4 Nest 5-2
5 Goddess of Fire 15-1
6 Yuugiri 30-1
7 Echo Zulu 4-1
8 Venti Valentine 20-1
9 Desert Dawn 20-1
10 Kathleen O. 7-2
11 Cocktail Moments 30-1
12 Candy Raid 30-1
13 Shahama 15-1
14 Turnerloose 20-1

2022 Kentucky Derby Odds

1 Mo Donegal 10-1
2 Happy Jack 30-1
3 Epicenter 7-2
4 Summer Is Tomorrow 30-1
5 Smile Happy 20-1
6 Messier 8-1
7 Crown Pride 20-1
8 Charge It 20-1
9 Tiz The Bomb 30-1
10 Zandon 3-1
11 Pioneer Of Medina 30-1
12 Taiba 12-1
13 Simplification 20-1
14 Barber Road 30-1
15 White Abarrio 10-1
16 Cyberknife 20-1
17 Classic Causeway 30-1
18 Tawny Port 30-1
19 Zozos 20-1
20 Ethereal Road 30-1

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