2024 Kentucky Derby Odds, Predictions: Which Horse Will Win?

We are just hours away from the 150th Kentucky Derby, which starts at 6:57 p.m. ET on Saturday on NBC, NBC Sports and Peacock.

The favorite to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby is #17 Fierceness, who is currently 5-2 to win the Derby. Our betting expert, Sean Zerillo, expects Fierceness' odds to keep getting shorter, anticipating that the favorite could close at even-money before Saturday's race. Here's what you need to know to get ready for the Derby in our Kentucky Derby betting guide for the average sports betting fan.

2024 Kentucky Derby Prediction: Which Horse Will Win?

With that said about the potential closing odds on Fierceness, our horse racing experts believe this is essentially a two-horse race when it comes to figuring out what Kentucky Derby bets to place for Saturday.

According to Zerillo, if Fierceness somehow goes off at 5-2, that would be an absolute max bet, as we project Fierceness will win the 2024 Kentucky Derby 50% to 60% of the time. After all, Fierceness recently ran a 110 speed score. You might not know exactly what that means, but know this: it's the fastest speed score in a prep race for the Derby by any horse in over a decade. Getting +250 on a bet that should be +100 or -150 would be fantastic value, and you could even bet the favorite all the way down to 3-2.

The other option for which horse will win the Kentucky Derby and your bets is #8 Just A Touch, who is a popular pick among all of our horse racing experts. That was true when the #8 horse was 10-1, and it's certainly true given Just A Touch's current odds of 12-1 at TwinSpires.

Your two best bets to win the 2024 Kentucky Derby, then, according to our Kentucky Derby predictions, are either #17 Fierceness or #8 Just A Touch. For even more Derby bets, including all the exotics you could want, check out Kentucky Derby Odds 2024: Best Bets, Picks to Win, Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta Exotics.

If you're new to betting on horses and don't know what those exotics are, I'll put it simply: they're basically Same-Game Parlays, but for horse racing. In an exacta, you're betting on the finish order of the first-place and second-place horse. A trifecta is the first-, second- and third-place horses. A superfecta? You guessed it: first-, second-, third- and fourth-place. The fun part is that you can bet on multiple horses in each of those slots, giving you all kinds of potential winning combinations — but, of course, the cost of betting goes up the more combinations you have.

Keep in mind that unlike sports betting, where the odds you get are the odds that were listed when you make your bet, horse racing odds are based on the closing lines when the race starts, regardless of whether you placed your bet last week or at the last minute. Most books that take horse racing bets will offer estimates somewhere on their site of what the payout for those various "parlay" style exotic bets might be. And for an even more in-depth on how betting on horse racing works, click here.

Looking for a bit more data when making your Kentucky Derby pick? One of the best predictive indicators as to which horse may win the 2024 Kentucky Derby is how it did in its last race before the Run for the Roses.

The last 19 of 26 winners — including nine of the last 12 — have raced the final three furlongs (3/8 of a mile) in 38 seconds or faster in that preliminary race.

Each of the horses set to compete in the 2024 Kentucky Derby has ran its prep race already. And one of the biggest favorites in the race failed to meet this criteria: Sierra Leone. Here is the list of horses that ran their final 3/8 of a mile in under 38 seconds:

Hat tip to this data courtesy of BloodHorse.

Curiously, the horses with the two fastest times are among the longest underdogs, Domestic Product (who is a popular bet among our experts in their Kentucky Derby long shots) and Endlessly. Both those times require caveats, though, according to BloodHorse.

Domestic Product's race was shorter than typical, making it easier for horses to finish with faster times. In addition, the starting quarters of the race were slow, meaning Domestic Product was able to conserve its energy for a last minute push to the finish line.

Endlessly's preliminary race, meanwhile, was conducted on Tapeta, not dirt, which is the longtime surface of the Kentucky Derby. Endlessly has never raced on dirt over his stake-winning career.

The favorite for the race fits in comfortably under 38 seconds with Fierceness (+250) at :36.91. His time was more impressive given his fast start, while the other horses on the list ran far slower starting paces to save their energy for a quickburst final 3/8 of a mile.

Sierra Leone just missed the sub-:38 mark with a :38.02 performance at the Blue Grass Stakes.

In history, the horses listed in the aforementioned chart are the ones that tend to finish first in horse racing's preeminent race. But it's not foolproof. Seven horses over the last 26 years have bucked this trend in order to win — including last year's race, where eventual winner Mage ran a :38.17 in his final three furlongs before the Kentucky Derby.

Keep in mind that the Derby isn't the only big-time horse racing you can bet on Saturday, as the most famous race on the planet is the main event to eight stakes races across Derby Day. And we have picks and best bets for every single one of those races in our 2024 Kentucky Derby Picks, Predictions for Saturday Derby Day & Derby Winner.