2024 Kentucky Oaks Odds, Picks, Predictions for Friday’s 7 Stakes Races

Odds via TwinSpires.

Some of the best horse racing of the year is on tap this weekend, but you don't have to wait until Saturday to get your fill — or to fill up your betting card for this year's races at Churchill Downs.

Friday is Kentucky Oaks Day, with six stakes races leading up to the 2024 Kentucky Oaks itself, a 1 1/8-mile dirt race featuring some of the best 3-year-old fillies in the world competing for a $1.5 million purse, up from last year's prize of $1.25 million. It serves as quite the table-setter for Saturday's more famous Kentucky Derby. The 2024 Kentucky Oaks is scheduled for 5:51 p.m. ET.

Let's get to everything you need to bet on today's horse racing action with my Kentucky Oaks best bet and pick.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Best Bets, Pick

Kentucky Oaks (Race 11), 5:51 p.m. ET — #5 Thorpedo Anna

The Pick: #5 Thorpedo Anna (4-1) won in very impressive fashion while being wrapped up late last time out. While she was never far off the pace, she made an effortless middle move to overtake the leaders and never looked backed. That performance was her first as a 3-year-old off a four-month layoff, so expect her to take another step forward. Trainer Kenny McPeek has said that someone better bring a beast to counter her.

Live Contenders: #14 Leslie's Rose (7-1) is tied for the highest last out Beyer Speed Figure with her 95 in the Ashland. What makes that even more impressive was the fashion in which she did it – waiting behind horses on the turn, finding room and then exploding coming for home. While her start two back in the Davona Dale left a lot to be desired, it seems like we can put a line through that one with her performance in the Ashland. Trainer Todd Pletcher is going for this record tying fifth Oaks victory.

#11 Ways and Means (7-1) absolutely dominated in her first start last summer. She then clipped heels in the Spinaway at Saratoga and was still able to finish second, but suffered a chipped ankle. She was off for over six months and came back with a very respectable second in the Gulfstream Park Oaks at the end of March. Not only was that her first off the bench, but it was also her first race going two turns. She’s primed to move forward off that effort and trainer Chad Brown would only put her in here if she believed she was ready.

2024 Kentucky Oaks Day Picks, Predictions

• Race 5: #4 Idiomatic to win
• Race 5: Pick 3 — 4 | 5,10 | 3
• Race 7: Pick 3 — 3 | 2,6 | 7
• Race 7: Pick 5 — 3,7,10 | 2,6 | 7 | 9,12 | 5,11,14
• Race 8: #2 Aspen Grove to win
• Race 9 (Best bet of the day): #7 Denim and Pearls to win
• Race 9: Pick 3 — 7 | 9,10 | 5,11,14
• Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks): #5 Thorpedo Anna to win

2024 Kentucky Oaks Day Best Bets, Predictions

• Race 5: #4 Idiomatic to win
• Race 5: Pick 3 — 4 | 5,10 | 3
• Race 7: Pick 3 — 3 | 2,6 | 7
• Race 7: Pick 5 — 3,7,10 | 2,6 | 7 | 9,12 | 5,11,14
• Race 8: #2 Aspen Grove to win
• Race 9 (Best bet of the day): #7 Denim and Pearls to win
• Race 9: Pick 3 — 7 | 9,10 | 5,11,14
• Race 11 (Kentucky Oaks): #5 Thorpedo Anna to win

Earlier Kentucky Oaks Day Races

Race 5, 12:43 p.m. ET: #4 Idiomatic

The Pick: #4 Idiomatic (6-5) hasn’t done much wrong in her career, winning nine of her 12 starts and hitting the board in the other three. The only concern is the long layoff, though trainer Brad Cox wins 32% of the time off of this type of layoff. In addition, she’s the only horse in the field who has run a triple-digit Beyer Speed Figure, and she’s done it four times.

Race 6, 1:26 p.m. ET: #5 Elm Drive

The Pick: #5 Elm Drive (5-1) is making her second start off the layoff and since shipping from California. Last time out, she made a good move to get the jump on an absolute monster in Roses for Debra, but just didn’t have the punch to finish. While she wasn’t going to win that race, she was forced to alter course mid stretch when a speed horse on the rail came out to her. Taking those factors into account, plus the fact that there are no monsters in this race, 5-1 is a very healthy price to take advantage of.

Live Contender: #10 Tony Ann (8-1) comes in off a six-month layoff. She last ran against the boys in the Breeders Cup Turf Spring. While she finished eight, she only finished 3 3⁄4 lengths behind the winner. Tony Ann has proven that she's able to fire off a long layoff in the past and has won five of her 10 starts against the girls.

Race 7, 2:09 p.m. ET: #3 First Mission

The Pick: #3 First Mission (8-5) is coming into this race in top form after winning the Grade
3 Essex Handicap last out. While he’s the most lightly raced horse in the field, he’s won four of his seven lifetime starts and is a perfect 3-for-3 at the distance.

Live Contenders: #10 Trademark (6-1) loves Churchill Downs and has four wins in six starts under the twinspires. Unsurprisingly, his best speed figures have also come at Churchill. While he didn’t show up at the Pegasus, he’s a horse you have to use in exotics given the price and his love for the track.

#7 Tapit Trice (7-2) is making his four-year debut after running in some of the most prestigious races as a 3-year-old. While he hasn’t seen the winners circle since April of last year, trainer Todd Pletcher knows how to get them ready off the long layoff and his workout tab suggests he’s primed and ready to run.

Race 8, 3:03 p.m. ET: #2 Aspen Grove

The Pick: #2 Aspen Grove (6-1) is making her second start as a 4-year-old and second start off the layoff. In her most recent start, she ran a very game second, closing into a slow pace, which resulted in a new top Beyer Speed Figure. With the added pace today, she will have more to close into, and if she can continue to improve off her last effort, she is live at a nice price.

Live Contender: #6 Surprisingly (5-1) always finds herself in the mix late. Last out she was bottled up into the far turn and didn't find her best stride until late. When she finally found her stride, she was moving very well. With one of the best turf jockeys in the world aboard in Flavien Prat, she will be positioned to unleash her late kick with ample time to contend.

Race 9, 4:04 p.m. ET: #7 Denim and Pearls

The Pick: #7 Denim and Pearls (3-1) won her last start by over nine lengths at today’s distance. The Beyer came back as a 98, which is 10 points better than any of her competitions best last out Beyer. Trainer Brad Cox is tied for the most all-time wins in the 8 Belles with three, and it looks like he’s primed to win his fourth with Denim and Pearls.

Race 10, 4:51 p.m. ET: #10 Dynamic Pricing

The Pick: #10 Dynamic Pricing (12-1) comes in off a disappointing seventh-place finish last time out. She had too much to do in the stretch after sitting in last for far too long. Two back, she ran well and missed by just a 1/2 length. She will get plenty of pace to run into today and jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. is one of the best in the game, so he won’t wait too long to move on her.

Live Contender: #9 Hard to Justify (2-1) won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Filly Turf last out. While that makes her the deserving favorite, it’s a lot to ask a horse making her first start as a 3-year-old to come in off that long of a layoff. That said, trainer Chad Brown is one of the best turf trainers in the game, so the layoff is less of a concern. She’s been training well coming into today too, suggesting she’s ready to fire.