Horse Racing Picks for Saturday, April 4: Best Value Bets for Gulfstream Park
The action at Gulfstream Park gets underway at 12:45 p.m. ET but I am going to focus on the late Pick 5, starting with Race 8.
Time: 4:18 p.m. ET
Race 8 at Gulfstream Park is a state bred optional claiming 20K for non-winners of one on the turf for fillies and mares three years old and up. It features a field of 11 horses.
The morning-line favorite is No. 3 Lookinlikeaqueen (5-2). She’s one that looks to be vulnerable and I’m looking to beat her in this spot. She has four wins, a second and six thirds from 17 career starts. Lookinlikeaqueen is trained by Ronald Spatz after she was claimed out of the Mike Maker barn.
Spatz is only sending out winners 6% of the time at this meet and she’s also making a jockey change here to Emisael Jaramillo from Luis Saez. To add to her list of changes, Lookinlikeaqueen is also taking a step up in class in this spot. Because she’s switching to a low-percentage barn, has a new rider and is taking a step up in class, I’m going against her.
No. 4 Yolanda’s Pride (8-1) is going to be my top selection. She is trained and own by Steve Klesaris and will have Joel Rosario in the irons. I always like backing horses that are trained and owned by the same person because he or she won’t put the horse in a bad spot, there’s just too much on the line.
Yolanda’s Pride won her last start, which was against stiffer competition, and is now taking a step back in class and running against state breds. The two races before for that can be thrown out as they were taken off the turf and she clearly loves the turf having two wins and two seconds from five career turf starts. Rosario is winning 20% of his turf starts and Klesaris is 22% when the horse won its last race.
The other horse that I’m going to include is No. 2 Ghostly Beauty (3-1). Trained by Mike Maker and ridden by Luis Saez, she is coming in after two near misses. In her last start she finished 3/4 of a length behind Lookinlikeaqueen after a battle down the stretch and two starts back finished a length behind the eventual winner.
Although she’s never won here at Gulfstream, with three seconds from five starts, her speed figures suggest that once again, she will be in the mix.
Additionally, Maker and Saez have teamed up 14 times in the last 60 days and have won 50% of the time. Maker is winning 21% of the time at this meet and Saez is winning 20% of his mounts.
Because of her competitive nature, her speed figures and the Maker/Saez combo, Ghostly Beauty is one that you have to include.
Next up we have an optional claiming $50K event that will be run over the main track at the distance of six furlongs. It is slated for a field of eight horses, headlined by No. 5 Inter Miami (5-2), who is the morning-line favorite.
Inter Miami is Triple Crown nominated and has tried his luck on both the main track and the grass, with all five of his starts taking place at Gulfstream Park. His two wins have come against similar company and when he’s stepped up in class he hasn’t fared all that well. He finished fifth in the Mucho Macho Man Stakes and sixth in the G3 Swale and most recently, 12th in the Culter Bay Stakes, which was run over the grass.
Inter Miami’s front-running style makes him a player in this spot and while I’m including him in my ticket, he’s not my top choice.
No. 8 Masteri Man (8-1) is trained by Michael Yates and will have Miguel Vasquez aboard. This will be his second start off a six-month layoff.
Masteri Man finished in third in his first start off the break, but he was caught three-wide in that run and couldn’t make a bid coming for home. Yates has won 18% of the time in his second race off the layoff and he and Vasquez have won 21% of their 14 starts in the last 60 days.
Masteri Man will be on the outside post position and that should benefit him as he won’t need to deal with any traffic coming out of the gate. Since his last start he has one reported workout, which was a bullet going three furlongs in 36 seconds flat.
He’s going to have to compete with a few others in here for the early pace, but with Yates being good second off the layoff and Masteri Man putting in a bullet workout in preparation for this race, he’s going to be my top pick.
5:20 p.m. ET
Race 10 is a 1 mile event over the turf course. It’s an optional claiming $100K race for four year olds and up. Eleven horses are set to make the trip.
The favorite, and the classiest horse in the race, is No. 3 First Premio (7-2). He is coming in off a five-month layoff after missing by just 3/4 of a length in the G1 Shadwell Turf Mile at Keeneland. Trained by Mark Casse and ridden by Tyler Gaffalione, First Premio has three wins, two seconds and a third from 12 career turf starts.
First Premio has shown versatility in his running style as he can be close to the pace or be taken back and make one big run. The Gulfstream turf favors speed, so he will want to be closer in this spot than his two previous starts, especially because it seems like he may want more distance having never won at a mile. That said, his speed figures and his class are the reasons he’s my top choice.
Next, we have No. 5 Mai Ty One On (12-1). He is trained by Jane Cibelli and will have Dylan Davis in the irons. He has three wins, five seconds and three thirds from 16 career turf starts and has two wins, two seconds and a third from six career starts at Gulfstream.
His last effort was against non-graded stakes company at Tampa Bay Downs where he finished third by 6 1/4 lengths. That race was only five furlongs and he was passing horses late so he should appreciate the added distance here.
Mai Ty One On has two workouts since his last start, the most recent being a bullet going four furlongs in 48 seconds flat. Also, his speed figures suggest that he is going to be competitive in this field. With him being a horse for the course, getting additional distance, having a stellar workout leading up to this race, Mai Ty One On is one that I’m including in my ticket.
No. 8 Class and Cash (4-1) is the other Cibelli trainee in here. He will have Joel Rosario aboard. He’s another horse for the course with four wins, three seconds and two thirds from 13 career starts at Gulfstream.
Although he’s a horse for the course, he hasn’t seen the winner’s circle since 2018, but his early running style always has him in contention. He’s coming in off a short layoff and has recorded three workouts leading up to this spot. Because of his front-running style, I would be remiss if I didn’t include him here.
Time: 5:52 p.m. ET
Race 11 is an optional claimer $75K event for non-winners of one that will be run over the main track at seven furlongs with a field of eight horses.
The first horse we will take a look at is No. 3 I’ll Fight Dempsey (9-5), who is the morning-line favorite. The son of Into Mischief was purchased for $300K at the Fasig Tipton August 2018 sale. After putting up a number of impressive works, he won his career debut fairly easy by 2 1/2 lengths right here at Gulfstream.
Trained by Todd Pletcher and ridden by Luis Saez, I’ll Fight Dempsey has recorded three bullet workouts since his debut victory. His early running style put him in a great position to win this one. He’s my top choice.
No. 4 Sonneman (5-2) is the other one that I’m going to use in here. The son of Curlin was purchased for $375K at the Keeneland September Yearling Sale in 2018. He’s coming in off a six-month layoff after breaking his maiden in his last start.
Sonneman is Triple Crown nominated, trained by Mark Hennig and is going to come from off the pace, so if things get too hot up front, look for him to be picking up the pieces late.
Time: 6:24 p.m. ET
The finale is a $16K claiming race that will be run at 1 mile over the turf course for fillies and mares four years old and up. The rail is at 60 feet and we are set to have a field of 12 horses for this run.
No. 8 Avenida Manana (9-5) is the favorite and coming in on a three-race win streak. She was claimed after her last race from the David Fawkes barn and is now in the care of Robert Hess. She will get Luis Saez in the irons.
Avenida Manana has dominated the competition at this level winning all four times, but her speed figures aren’t all that impressive. That being said, her running style makes her dangerous in here. While I’m not making her my top pick, you have to include her in your ticket.
To Avenida Manana’s outside we have No. 9 Trilby (9-2). She was also claimed after her last start and is now in the Ronald Spatz barn. Trilby has four wins, three seconds and a third from 14 career starts at Gulfstream.
Her last three speed figures are some of the best in this race, making her a real threat. Tyler Gaffalione will be aboard to pilot her. He’s teamed up with Spatz twice in the last 60 days with one win.
Spatz wins 25% of his first races after claiming a horse and wins at 45% when his horse was the beaten favorite last time out. Because Trilby is a horse for the course, has speed figures that are more than fast enough to win and Spatz’s situational training stats, she’s going to be my top pick.
Next, we will look to the No. 4 Sweet Story (8-1). She is owned and trained by Steve Klesaris and ridden by Joel Rosario. She has six wins, three seconds and four thirds from 22 career starts at Gulfstream. Last time out, she finished third but came in a neck behind the winner Avenida Manana. She was shifted out wider and if Rosario can work out a better trip for her in this spot, she should have a chance. I’m going to include her in my ticket.
No. 12 Paint the Corners (10-1) had a troubled trip last time out. The Murcat Sanat trainee was shut off and steadied late, crossing the wire in fourth by only 3/4 of a length. After an inquiry, she was moved up into third as the winner was disqualified for interfering with her.
Paint the Corners will have Emisael Jaramillo, who tends to be a more aggressive rider, aboard. Jaramillo will need to use her tactical speed to get over from the outside post to ensure she doesn’t get carried wide into the first turn.
If he’s able to do that and work out the right trip, Paint the Corners stands a big chance in here at a great price. You have to include her in your ticket.
Bets for Gulfstream Park, April 4
- Win: 4
- Exacta: 2,4/2,3,4
- Pick 5: 2,4/5,8/3,5,8/3,4/4,8,9,12
- Win: 8
- Exacta box: 5,8
- Exacta box: 3,5,8
- Exacta box: 4,8,9,12
- Trifecta box: 4,8,9,12