Braves vs. Nationals Odds & Betting Predictions - May 20, 2025

#Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Parker has a 14.8% K rate this year, and while I project some bounce back toward his 19% career mark, that still gives value on the under here. He struck out 6 Braves last week, which may be inflating this line — but there are several reasons why this matchup sets up worse. This is a back-to-back start vs. the same team, and hitters tend to strike out (slightly) less in that spot. The Braves also rank top-10 in whiff rate vs. both of Parker’s go-to strikeout pitches (slider/curve). Last game was in Atlanta (4th-highest K park factor); this one’s in D.C. — 2nd lowest. He also benefited from an unusually high foul ball rate (30% vs. 21% season avg), which helped get to more two strike counts. That should regress. Parker K’d Eli White twice last game when he was leading off — he has the highest K chance in the lineup — but today White is hitting 7th, making a 3rd PA vs. him less likely. Add in Marvin Hudson behind the plate, who squeezes the top and bottom of the zone (where Parker tends to miss), and I’m projecting this closer to -160 with a ton of reasons to like the under.