Braves vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - May 9, 2025

Braves at Pirates

10:40 pm • FDSSO

Atlanta Braves

17-5

2 - 3

Pittsburgh Pirates

16-8

pitcher		team	era	w-l
B.Falter			11.25	0-2
B.Elder			5.30	8-11

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Braves 17-5	-1.5	-1.5+112	o8.5-120	-148
Pirates 16-8	u8.5	+1.5-132	u8.5-102	+126

Friday 10:40 p.m.

May 09, 2025

PNC ParkPittsburgh

B.Elder u2.5 Earned Runs-130

0.65u

Pirates implied for just 4 runs and missing Pham/Triolo from lineup. Taking a shot at this given the lineup.

ATL -148

0.25u

ATL -148

PIT +1.5-130

0.77u

Braves flailing on the road – 6-15 last 21 away, avg just 3.77 runs/game. Pirates stronger at PNC – allow only 3.47. ATL road ERA 4.69 vs PIT home ERA 4.50. Over is 7-1 in last 8 in Pittsburgh – home bats show up. Pirates offense quietly heating. Bryce Elder a problem – 42.3% HardHit%, .341 xWOBA, just 15.9 K%. Pirates hitters match up well: Cruz 60.5% HardHit%, .411 xWOBA. Reynolds 46.2%, Hayes 48.6%, McCutchen .376 xWOBA. Elder walks too many (8.7 BB%) – contact + traffic = trouble. Braves bullpen untrustworthy – Iglesias 5.40 ERA, Minter 4.15 ERA with ugly 1.96 WHIP. Pirates can capitalize late.

PIT +0.5 (F5)-125

Under 4.5 (F5)+100

B.Elder u4.5 Ks-150

1.5u

O.Cruz o0.5 HR+460

0.5u

O.Cruz o1.5 Total Bases+110

$1.00

PIT +1.5-130

2.31u

O.Cruz o0.5 HR+520

0.3u

PIT +125

1.25u

Under 8.5-105

Temps in mid 50s - Neither pitcher a non-FIP estimator reaching 4.5 - PIT 81/78/55 wRC+ Hm/v RHP/L7 days, ATL 85/71/73 - two good defenses & respectable bullpens

4 Home Run Prop Bets & Parlay for Friday Night
Grant Neiffer•
May 9, 2025 UTC

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No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Pirates' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	90-72	48-33	42-39	19-26	69-45
Braves	72-89	32-49	40-40	44-61	27-27

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	61-92-9	33-43-5	28-49-4	17-26-2	42-65-7
Braves	72-80-9	33-45-3	39-35-6	46-54-5	25-25-4

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	71-91	44-37	27-54	22-23	48-66
Braves	76-86	39-42	36-44	55-50	19-35

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
May 7th	@STL	L 0-5	+1.5 L	U 7.5	STL +156
May 6th	@STL	L 1-2	-1.5 L	U 7	STL -118
May 5th	@STL	L 3-6	+1.5 L	O 8.5	STL +112
May 4th	SD	L 0-4	+1.5 L	U 9	SD -112
May 3rd	SD	L 1-2	-	U 9.5	SD -120

Jose Urquidy
SP
Urquidy is out with arm
Out
Endy Rodriguez
1B
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out

Joe Jimenez
RP
Jimenez is out with knee
Out
Austin Riley
3B
Riley is out with abdominal
Out
AJ Smith-Shawver
SP
Smith-Shawver is out for season with elbow
Out for Season

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RB.Elder, P	99	6	8	3
RE.De Los Santos, P	16	1	2	0
LA.Bummer, P	11	1	2	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1O.Albies, 2B	0-5	0	0
2A.Riley, 3B	2-4	0	0
3M.Ozuna, DH	0-3	0	0
4M.Olson, 1B	0-4	0	0
5E.White, LF	1-4	1	0
5E.White, RF	1-4	1	0
6S.Murphy, C	0-3	0	0
7M.Harris, CF	0-2	0	1
8S.Fairchild, RF	0-2	0	0
8A.Verdugo, PH	1-2	1	0
8A.Verdugo, LF	1-2	1	0
9N.Allen, SS	2-3	0	0
9D.Baldwin, PH	1-1	0	1
9L.Williams, PR	0-0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
LB.Falter, P	89	6	3	0
RC.Shugart, P	11	0.2	1	0
LC.Ferguson, P	5	0.1	1	0
RD.Bednar, P	23	1	3	0
RD.Santana, P	22	1	0	2

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1O.Cruz, CF	1-4	0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, RF	1-3	1	0	0
3A.McCutchen, DH	1-3	0	0	1
4J.Bart, C	0-3	0	0	0
5K.Hayes, 3B	0-3	0	0	0
6M.Gorski, 1B	0-3	0	0	0
7A.Frazier, 2B	0-3	0	0	0
8A.Canario, LF	1-3	1	1	1
8T.Pham, LF	0-0	0	0	0
9J.Triolo, SS	1-3	1	1	1