Brewers vs. Reds Odds & Betting Predictions - June 4, 2025

Abbott has allowed 1 ER or less in all but 1 start this season. He's pushed his soft fly balls approach to an extreme level, with a career-high 40.5% fly-ball rate and a career-best 30.2% hard-hit rate (94th percentile). Abbott has raised his arm angle by 4 degrees, which has affected the characteristics of his fastball and changeup. The new shapes have worked well so far. After posting a -8 run value in 2024, Abbott's fastball has an excellent +6 run value this season. His changeup has a +4 run value. It seems like the adjusted arm angle has made those pitches play off each other perfectly. William Contreras is getting the day off, which improves the matchup for Abbott.

Credit to @cawright95 for the writeup on ScoresAndOdds as I’m aligned with him. Brewers are implied for 4.4 runs but are rolling out a more watered down lineup than I expected (no Contreras, Durbin or Collins, and Turang drops to 9th in the order). Abbott has been sharp as of late, boasting a 1.51 ERA and allowing just two earned runs for the month of May that spanned 32.2 innings. It’s not a good ballpark for pitching but given his current form and the Brewers’ lineup, I’ll back Abbott.

Bet to 8.5 (-105)

Bet to -126