Padres vs. Diamondbacks Odds & Betting Predictions - September 28, 2024

Padres at Diamondbacks

1:40 am • ARID

San Diego Padres

18-11

5 - 3

Arizona Diamondbacks

15-14

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Kelly			4.03	5-1
Y.Darvish			3.31	7-3

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Padres 18-11	-1.5	+1.5-185	o9-105	+114
Diamondbacks 15-14	u9	-1.5+154	u9-109	-135

Saturday 1:40 a.m.

September 28, 2024

Chase FieldPhoenix

SD +110

1.1u

F.Tatis o1.5 Total Bases-110

1.1u

Under 9-115

0.87u

Signal of the Day

SD +118 (F5)

0.3u

Small to +100

Under 9-115

0.5u

Bet to 8.5 (-108)

SD +115

0.6u

Buying off after switching to Darvish; pass if you didn't bet AZ

ARI -125

0.63u

Update: Pass

Featured Insight
The Padres have scored 1.5 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- highest in MLB (91 games). The Diamondbacks have allowed 1.5 runs per game in close and late situations this season -- fourth highest in MLB (89 games).

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Featured Insight
Diamondbacks RPs have a strikeout rate of 33% vs right-handed batters over the last week -- third highest in MLB. Padres right-handed hitters have struck out 47% against LHP over the last week -- highest in MLB.

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The Padres are 90-66 (.577) this season -- 4th best in MLB; League Avg: .500.

73% of non-fastball strikeouts for Luis Arraez are located out of the zone since last season -- 12th highest in MLB-- 90th Percentile. 81% of Merrill Kelly non-fastball strikeouts are located out of the zone since last season -- second highest among starting pitchers with at least 127 total IP-- 99th Percentile.

Eugenio Suarez had an OPS of just .434 with two strikes in the 2022 season -- sixth worst in MLB-- fourth Percentile. Yu Darvish allowed an OPS of just .380 (436 PAs) with two strikes in the 2022 season -- ninth best among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 93rd Percentile.

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MLB Public Betting

Diamondbacks are 2-3 in their last 5 games.
Diamondbacks are 1-4 in their last 5 games against the spread
Diamondbacks are 7-7 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 4 of Diamondbacks' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 7 of Diamondbacks' 16 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	14-16	7-9	7-7	10-12	4-4
Padres	17-13	14-4	3-9	10-6	7-7

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Diamondbacks	16-11-3	7-6-3	9-5	11-8-3	5-3
Padres	12-17-1	6-11-1	6-6	6-9-1	6-8

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Diamondbacks	16-14	8-8	8-6	12-10	4-4
Padres	19-11	14-4	5-7	12-4	7-7

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Sep 26th	SF	W 8-2	-1.5 W	O 9	ARI -270
Sep 25th	SF	L 0-11	-1.5 L	O 8	SF -161
Sep 24th	SF	L 3-6	-1.5 L	U 9	SF -191
Sep 22nd	@MIL	L 9-10	+1.5 W	O 8	MIL +115
Sep 21st	@MIL	W 5-0	-1.5 W	U 8	ARI -110

Jordan Montgomery
SP
Montgomery is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Blaze Alexander
SS
Alexander is out with oblique
Out

Joe Musgrove
SP
Musgrove is out for season with elbow
Out for Season
Yu Darvish
SP
Darvish is out with elbow
Out
Matt Waldron
SP
Waldron is out with hamstring
Out
Jackson Merrill
CF
Merrill is out with hamstring
Out

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PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RY.Darvish, P	80	5.1	4	3
RJ.Estrada, P	14	0.2	1	0
LA.Morejon, P	16	0.2	0	0
RJ.Adam, P	17	1.1	1	0
RR.Suarez, P	22	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1L.Arraez, 1B	3-5	1	1
2F.Tatis, RF	0-5	0	0
3J.Profar, LF	0-4	1	0
3B.Lockridge, LF	0-0	0	0
4M.Machado, 3B	1-5	1	1
5J.Merrill, CF	2-4	0	1
6X.Bogaerts, SS	0-4	1	0
7J.Cronenworth, 2B	1-3	0	0
8D.Peralta, DH	2-3	0	1
8D.Solano, PH	0-0	0	0
8D.Solano, DH	0-0	0	0
9K.Higashioka, C	1-4	1	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Kelly, P	99	5.2	8	5
LJ.Mantiply, P	3	0.1	0	0
RR.Thompson, P	6	1	0	0
LA.Puk, P	21	1	0	0
RK.Ginkel, P	10	1	1	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1C.Carroll, CF	1-3	1	1	1
2K.Marte, 2B	0-3	1	0	0
3J.Pederson, DH	0-2	0	0	0
3R.Grichuk, PH	1-1	0	0	0
3R.Grichuk, DH	1-1	0	0	0
3A.Thomas, PH	0-1	0	0	0
4C.Walker, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
5L.Gurriel, LF	1-2	1	0	1
6P.Smith, RF	0-4	0	0	0
7E.Suarez, 3B	2-4	0	0	1
8G.Moreno, C	1-4	0	0	0
9G.Perdomo, SS	0-4	0	0	0