Phillies vs. Pirates Odds & Betting Predictions - July 28, 2023

Phillies at Pirates

11:05 pm • SportsNet PT

Philadelphia Phillies

10-15

2 - 1

Pittsburgh Pirates

17-10

pitcher		team	era	w-l
M.Keller			4.21	13-9
Z.Wheeler			3.61	13-6

MatchupOpenSpreadTotalMoneyline
Phillies 10-15	N/A	N/A	N/A
Pirates 17-10	N/A	N/A	N/A

Friday 11:05 p.m.

July 28, 2023

PNC ParkPittsburgh

M.Keller o17.5 Outs-114

PIT +145 (F5)

0.5u

Need +145

PHI -1.5+100

Z.Wheeler o6.5 Ks-145

0.28u

M.Keller o17.5 Outs-162

$175.00

PIT +136

Wheeler has Keller by about 3/4 of a run (and the latter has really struggled recently). However, PHI 97/96/63 wRC+ Rd/v RHP/L7 days isn't much better than PIT 90/87/104, while PIT has the better defense (6 Runs Prevented) and both pens have similar estimators L30 days, both in the upper half of the league. Add in the home field edge & PHI should be a smaller favorite.

PIT +145

0.5u

Bet to +133

PHI -155

0.48u

Preview coming for tomorrows game (BetOnline)

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The Pirates are just 7-12 (.368) after a road win this season -- 4th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .492.

The Phillies are just 24-41 (.369) after a road loss since last season -- 5th lowest in MLB; League Avg: .453.

48% of fastball strikeouts for J.T. Realmuto were located out of the zone last season -- tied for 13th highest in MLB-- 88th Percentile. 46% of Mitch Keller fastball strikeouts were located out of the zone last season -- 15th highest among starting pitchers with at least 64 total IP-- 87th Percentile.

Opponents are hitting .460 (23-for-50) against Zack Wheeler on the first pitch of at-bats this season -- tied for 2nd highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .340 -- fourth Percentile.

Opponents are hitting just .175 (10-for-57) against Mitch Keller on low fastballs this season -- tied for 4th best among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: .259 -- 94th Percentile.

Zack Wheeler has thrown inside pitches 43% of the time (1,273/2,974) in non-two strike counts since last season -- highest among qualified SPs in MLB; League Avg: 32% -- 100th Percentile.

No props found

MLB Public Betting

Pirates are 3-2 in their last 5 games.
Pirates are 4-1 in their last 5 games against the spread
Pirates are 42-39 in their road games against the spread
The totals have gone OVER in 1 of Pirates' last 5 games
The totals have gone OVER in 33 of Pirates' 81 last games at home

Against the Spread (ATS) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	90-72	48-33	42-39	19-26	69-45
Phillies	81-81	41-40	40-41	62-67	19-14

Over/Under History

	overall	home o/u	away o/u	favorite o/u	underdog o/u
Pirates	61-92-9	33-43-5	28-49-4	17-26-2	42-65-7
Phillies	70-81-11	41-37-3	29-44-8	57-61-11	13-20

Straight-Up (ML) History

	overall	home	away	favorite	underdog
Pirates	71-91	44-37	27-54	22-23	48-66
Phillies	96-66	55-26	41-40	80-49	16-17

date	opponent	score	spread	over/under	moneyline
Jul 26th	@SD	W 3-2	-	-	-
Jul 26th	@SD	L 1-5	-	-	-
Jul 25th	@SD	W 8-4	-	-	-
Jul 23rd	@LAA	L 5-7	-	-	-
Jul 23rd	@LAA	W 3-0	-	-	-

Jose Urquidy
SP
Urquidy is out with arm
Out
Endy Rodriguez
1B
Rodriguez is out with elbow
Out
Jared Jones
SP
Jones is out with elbow
Out

Pedro Leon
RF
Leon is out with knee
Out

See more MLB Injuries

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RZ.Wheeler, P	90	6.2	11	1
RJ.Hoffman, P	9	0.2	2	0
LG.Soto, P	12	0.2	0	0
RC.Kimbrel, P	12	1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	HR	RBI
1K.Schwarber, DH	2-2	1	1	2
2T.Turner, SS	0-5	0	0	0
3B.Harper, 1B	0-4	0	0	0
4N.Castellanos, RF	0-4	0	0	0
5B.Stott, 2B	2-4	0	0	0
6J.Realmuto, C	1-4	0	0	0
7A.Bohm, 3B	1-3	0	0	0
8B.Marsh, CF	1-3	1	0	0
9J.Cave, LF	0-4	0	0	0

PITCHER	PC	IP	K	ER
RM.Keller, P	108	5.2	8	2
LR.Borucki, P	12	1.1	2	0
LJ.Hernandez, P	13	0.2	2	0
RY.De los Santos, P	18	1	0	0
RC.Mlodzinski, P	1	0.1	0	0

HITTERS	H-AB	R	RBI
1J.Suwinski, CF	0-3	0	0
1C.Joe, PH	1-1	0	0
1L.Peguero, SS	0-0	0	0
2B.Reynolds, LF	1-4	1	0
3A.McCutchen, DH	0-3	0	0
4J. Choi, 1B	1-4	0	1
5H.Davis, RF	0-3	0	0
6E.Rodriguez, C	1-4	0	0
7J.Triolo, 3B	0-3	0	0
8N.Gonzales, 2B	0-3	0	0
9A.Williams, SS	0-2	0	0
9J.Palacios, PH	1-1	0	0
9J.Palacios, CF	1-1	0	0