MLB Strikeout Projections & Picks for Friday, July 28
G Fiume/Getty Images. Pictured: Grayson Rodriguez
A unique prop market that has emerged at FanDuel this year is daily strikeout leader. The sportsbook lists odds for every starting pitcher on a given day and you can bet on who will finish with the most strikeouts on the slate.
Keep in mind, much like sports such as golf with leaderboards, dead-heat rules do apply. So if a pitcher you bet on ties with another pitcher, your odds are cut in half.
Action Network director of analytics Sean Koerner dives through MLB pitcher props regularly.
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The favorite in today's market is one of the American League's Cy Young contenders, Kevin Gausman of the Toronto Blue Jays. He's priced at +310 against the Los Angeles Angels tonight. Behind him are two other pitchers at lower than 6/1: Zack Wheeler of the Philadelphia Phillies against the Pittsburgh Pirates at +500, and New York Yankees ace Gerrit Cole at +550 against the Baltimore Orioles. Everyone else on the list is 12/1 or longer, including future Hall of Famer Max Scherzer of the Mets at +1200.
Based on Koerner's projections, the top values on the board today are Grayson Rodriguez of the Baltimore Orioles and Cristian Javier of the Houston Astros. Both are highly volatile starting pitchers but possess enough upside that Koerner projects them in the +2000 range, where FanDuel lists them at +4600 and +3200, respectively. Rodriguez faces the New York Yankees while Javier takes on the Tampa Bay Rays.
It's also worth noting that the potential for rain could impact the Yankees-Orioles and Phillies-Pirates games, so that's factored a bit into these projections.
Below, you can find Koerner's projections for the daily strikeout leader today, Friday, July 28. The chart includes all pertinent info regarding his recommended wagers and is based off a $1,000 bankroll using the Kelly Criterion. If you're unfamiliar, Kelly gives you bet sizes based on your bankroll, theoretical edge and risk tolerance. You can use our Odds Calculator to figure out your edge as well. The stake size isn't supposed to be 100% what you should do based on that $1,000 bankroll, but it's a rough idea for people to gauge which guys to invest more into.