Twins vs. Dodgers Odds & Betting Predictions - July 22, 2025

Ohtani’s pitch count remains a concern, but it’s been trending up 4 straight games, hitting 36 pitches and 11 batters faced last start. I’m projecting him to stretch into the 40–45 pitch range post-ASB, which could get him to 12 batters faced tonight…a key number for this prop (I explain why later on). He’s only cleared this in 1 of 5 starts, which might be helping keep his market in check here. His 30.3% K rate actually matches my expected K model, mainly due to a brutal schedule (which my expected K model adjusts for) the equivalent of facing the 5th toughest team to K in all five outings. Tonight’s Twins lineup is the 2nd easiest he’s seen yet and also has the 6th highest whiff rate vs. sliders/sweepers (his main put-away pitches). What really sets this spot apart is the way Minnesota’s lineup breaks down: I have the top 3 hitters projected to K 35% of the time, the middle 3 at just 31%, and the bottom 3 back up at 35%. If Ohtani gets 12 batters, he could get pulled right before the toughest section comes back up.. giving him the perfect window to pile up 4+ Ks. I project this closer to -140.

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Payoff Pitch: https://myaction.app/Hd87tiQKbVb

Bet to +165