The Chicago White Sox (25-53) host the Arizona Diamondbacks (39-38) on Monday, June 23, 2025. First pitch from Rate Field is scheduled for 7:40 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on ARID.
The Diamondbacks and White Sox open their interleague series Monday.
Arizona enters as -135 moneyline favorites, with the run line set at -1.5 in their favor. The total for this game is nine runs, and that’s where the sharp edge lies.
Find my Diamondbacks vs White Sox prediction and MLB betting preview below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
Diamondbacks vs White Sox Prediction
- Diamondbacks vs White Sox Pick: Under 9 (-102, BetMGM)
My Diamondbacks vs White Sox best bet is on the under. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Diamondbacks vs White Sox Odds
| Diamondbacks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +125 | 9 -118o / -102u | -135 |
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -155 | 9 -118o / -102u | +115 |
Diamondbacks vs White Sox Projected Pitchers
| RHP Shane Smith (CHW) | Stat | LHP Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-4 | W-L | 2-4 |
| 1.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.6 |
| 2.85 / 3.92 | ERA /xERA | 5.93 / 3.92 |
| 3.54 / 4.32 | FIP / xFIP | 4.41 / 4.08 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.62 |
| 11.6% | K-BB% | 15.0% |
| 42.2% | GB% | 33.0% |
| 96 | Stuff+ | 92 |
| 99 | Location+ | 100 |
Diamondbacks vs White Sox Pick, Betting Analysis
The White Sox may be coming off a win over Toronto, but they remain in last place in the AL Central at 25-53.
Their offense continues to struggle overall, and their games have stayed Under the total in four of the last five.
Meanwhile, Arizona dropped a tight game to the Rockies despite continued offensive production from Ketel Marte, who’s batting .366 with a 1.112 OPS in June.
On the mound, Shane Smith will start for Chicago.
After beginning the month strong with 11 1/3 innings and just one run allowed across two starts, he regressed in his latest outing by giving up six earned.
This game fits Evan Abrams’ “Public Fades Humidity = Unders” model, which targets games with elevated humidity (45–95%), neutral wind, and moderate temps. While casual bettors often expect humidity to drive offense, the data show that it frequently results in softer contact and slower games, especially when the home team, such as the White Sox, is showing low-scoring momentum (with an under 40% Over rate across their past five games).
The betting market appears to be adjusting accordingly. The total has already seen slight movement, and public action is staying light on the over — a typical signal in this system.
With the weather, recent form, and public misread all pointing in one direction, there’s value in fading offensive expectations tonight.
Pick: Under 9 (-102, BetMGM)
