Astros vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Houston to Cruise in Cleveland (Sunday, August 7)

Astros vs. Guardians MLB Odds, Pick & Preview: Back Houston to Cruise in Cleveland (Sunday, August 7) article feature image

Tim Warner/Getty Images. Pictured: Alex Bregman of the Astros vs. the Angels

  • It's the final game of this series between the Houston Astros and the Cleveland Guardians.
  • The Astros are sending Cristian Javier to the mound, and the Guardians are giving the ball to Triston McKenzie.
  • Tony Sartori previews the game and shares his best bet below.

Astros vs. Guardians Odds

Astros Odds-145
Guardians Odds+120
Over/Under8 (-110/-110)
Time12:05 p.m. ET
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

We have the fourth and final game of this series as the AL Central's Cleveland Guardians host the AL West's Houston Astros. This game kicks off a full day of baseball and will air on Peacock.

Will the Astros continue their dominance this season, or can the Guardians pull off the upset as short home underdogs?

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Houston Astros: Will Javier Throw Another Gem?

The Houston Astros have been in terrific form recently, a trend I expect to continue Sunday as right-hander Cristian Javier is slated to take the mound. Through 20 appearances this season, Javier is 6-7 with a 3.24 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.

His metrics are even stronger as he boasts a .261 xwOBA, .177 xBA and a .307 xSLG. In his one start against Cleveland this season, Javier threw a gem as he hurled  5 2/3 shutout innings while only allowing three hits and striking out nine.

Houston won that game, 2-1, a result I could see transpire once again. Following Javier is one of the best bullpens in baseball.

Since July 1, the Astros' relief pitching ranks third in the league in ERA, second in WHIP, first in BA, first in SLG, first in wOBA and first in hard-hit percentage. This pitching staff should get the necessary run support as the Astros are slated to go against right-hander Triston McKenzie.

When facing right-handed pitchers, Houston ranks 12th in the league in BA, seventh in SLG, seventh in OPS and eighth in wOBA since July 1. Through 38 career plate appearances against McKenzie, this Astros roster boasts a .286 BA, .686 SLG and a .427 wOBA.

Cleveland Guardians: McKenzie Needs to be at His Best

As mentioned above, right-hander Triston McKenzie is slated to take the mound for Cleveland. Through 20 appearances this season, McKenzie is 7-8 with a 3.38 ERA and a 1.00 WHIP.

While those are good numbers, his metrics do not stack up to Javier's. McKenzie possesses a .310 xwOBA, .230 xBA and a .420 xSLG on the year.

Following McKenzie is a below-average bullpen. Since July 1, Cleveland's relief pitching ranks just 17th in the league in ERA, 18th in BA, 18th in SLG and 26th in hard-hit percentage.

Additionally, this pitching staff may not get much run support as the Guardians are slated to go against right-hander Cristian Javier. When facing right-handed pitchers at home, Cleveland ranks 15th in the league in BA, 20th in SLG, 18th in OPS, 19th in wOBA and 28th in hard-hit percentage.

Through 20 career plate appearances against Javier, this Guardians roster possesses a mere .105 BA, .158 SLG and a .142 wOBA.

Astros-Guardians Pick

We are backing Houston to take care of business in this game as the Astros boast a better starting pitcher, lineup and bullpen.

The one advantage Cleveland possesses is the fact that they are at home, which is why we may be getting such a generous number on Houston. That being said, Cleveland is just a few games over .500 at Progressive Field this season.

Houston has been on a roll and I expect that to continue in this matchup.

Pick: Houston Astros ML (-140) | Play up to (-150)

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