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MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Astros vs. Twins: Target Total in Final Game of Series (Thursday, May 12)

MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions for Astros vs. Twins: Target Total in Final Game of Series (Thursday, May 12) article feature image
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Photo by David Berding/Getty Images. Pictured: Jose Altuve (Astros)

  • Following the completion of a suspended game from Wednesday night, the Astros and Twins go head-to-head to close out their three-game set.
  • Houston's offense has been hot since the return of Jose Altuve, but it will face Minnesota rookie Josh Winder, who has been pitching well.
  • Jules Posner breaks down the matchup and offers up a best bet.

Astros vs. Twins Odds

Astros Odds -140
Twins Odds +115
Over/Under 8 (-110 / -110)
Time Approx. 3:30 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

After a rain suspended game on Wednesday, the Houston Astros look to win their ninth and 10th consecutive games on Thursday.

After sweeping the Oakland Athletics, the Twins look to put a halt to the streaking Astros, as they turn to rookie Josh Winder in the series finale.

The Astros will counter with the mulletted and mustachioed wonder, Luis Garcia.

If the Twins manage to rally after the resumption of Wednesday night’s game, this outing would be the rubber match — or the Twins will be looking to avoid being swept at home.

Editor’s Note: First pitch for this game follows the resumption of the 5/11 suspended game, which begins at 1:10 p.m. ET on Thursday.

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Here Comes Houston’s Offense

The Houston Astros’ offense has come back to life, and it’s no coincidence that this current win streak has been fueled by the return of Jose Altuve.

Since returning from the IL on May 2, Altuve has posted a 266 wRC+ and is slashing .385/.500/.731 with three home runs.

In turn, the Astros’ offense has been fourth in the league in team wRC+ over that same span. However, the Astros’ offense has been steadily warming up over the past couple of weeks, even in Altuve’s absence.

Garcia’s stronger split would seem to be on the road. He’s posted a 1.80 road ERA over 10 innings in two starts this season. Looking deeper, his road FIP is 5.70 so far this year.

This discrepancy is due to a small sample, but the two-walks-to-one-strikeout from his first road start and the two home runs surrendered in his second road start further contaminate his data.

The Astros’ bullpen is also back in form since Ryan Pressly returned from injury. Over the past two weeks, they’ve been a top-tier unit.


Can Twins Overcome Their Injuries?

The Twins aren’t in a slide, but it seems as though they are running into the Astros at a bad time.

Byron Buxton returned Wednesday from a hip injury, but they are still without Carlos Correa.

Additionally, the Twins’ offense has only been in the middle of the pack in terms of team wRC+ at home against RHP and runs scored at home over the past couple of weeks.

Winder gets the start, and he’s had an excellent beginning to his career. He’s also racked up impressive starts against the Los Angeles Dodgers and the Tampa Bay Rays, two excellent offensive- and analytically-driven teams.

He will be facing another in the Astros, as he has pitched through a gauntlet of challengers early in his career.

The Twins’ bullpen has also been even better than the Astros’ bullpen over the past two weeks, as they are fourth in MLB in FIP and first in ERA over that span.

Astros-Twins Pick

Even though the forecast is clear, forecasting outcomes for this game is not — at least in terms of run-lines and moneylines.

There is not a clear advantage here because all of the numbers indicate that these teams are pretty evenly matched.

When there is a matchup like this, a play emerges: the under. It’s set at 8.5 right now, and considering how well both pitching staffs are throwing, run prevention will be the key in this matchup.

Take the under until 8 runs or the -120 threshold.

Pick: Under 8.5 -115

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