Astros vs Yankees ALCS Game 4 Odds, Expert Picks & Same Game Parlay in MLB Playoffs
Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Giancarlo Stanton
- The ALCS continues Sunday night in the Bronx as the Yankees look to avoid elimination.
- Our analyst has put together a same-game parlay that follows a game script with the Yankees extending their season.
- Check out Charlie Disturco's picks and analysis below.
Astros vs. Yankees Game 4 Odds
| Astros Odds | +104 |
| Yankees Odds | -122 |
| Over/Under | 6.5 |
| Time | 7:07 p.m. ET |
| TV | TBS |
| Odds via BetMGM. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here. | |
The Houston Astros look for a four-game sweep and to preserve their undefeated postseason record in Game 4 of the ALCS on the road against the New York Yankees.
The Yankees were shutout on Saturday night on the back of Cristian Javier and the Houston bullpen, mustering just one hit until the ninth inning. Facing elimination, the Bronx Bombers turn to lefty Nestor Cortes.
Lance McCullers takes the mound opposite Cortes, looking to close the door in a second straight series. He started the 18-inning series-clinching Game 3 against Seattle his last time out.
Here’s a same-game parlay for Game 4, following a narrative that New York battles and lives to see another day:
The Parlay (+417):
- Yankees Moneyline (-122)
- Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
- Giancarlo Stanton to Record a Hit (-160)
Same-Game Parlay – Astros vs Yankees
New York Yankees ML (-122)
New York’s back is against the wall and in a hole that’s near-impossible to dig out of. But in a do-or-die situation at home, I expect Aaron Boone to throw the kitchen sink at Houston in an effort to win at least once.
Lance McCullers’ start was pushed back a day after a cut swelled on his throwing elbow, and while it should have little effect on his performance, I am looking to fade the righty in the final days of the season.
Despite a 2.27 ERA in eight regular season starts — and also throwing six scoreless against Seattle — McCullers’ xERA is over a run higher at 3.57. His Strikeout Rate has dropped from a season ago, and his walks remain an alarming 11.3 percent.
And while McCullers’ numbers look impressive, he only faced two good offenses — Phillies and Braves — giving up four runs over 12 innings. He also has a 3.57 ERA away from Minute Maid Park.
Opposite him is Nestor Cortes, who has been a great second to Gerrit Cole’s one. The southpaw built off an impressive breakout season in 2021 with an even better year in 2022. His xERA sits at 2.70, and he’s posted career bests in xBA (.204), Barrel Rate (5.3%) and xSLG (.320), among others.
Unlike most pitchers, who struggle in a more hitter-friendly Yankee Stadium, Cortes has a sub-2.00 ERA, a number that jumps over a run away from home.
The Astros haven’t been the daunted offense in their first two series — it’s been the pitching and bullpen that have carried a lion’s share — and I expect Cortes to limit them once again in a lower-scoring win.
The Yankees probably won’t come back from down 3-0, but I’m going to back them to go down with a fight here behind Cortes.
Aaron Judge Over 1.5 Total Bases (+130)
If there’s one batter I trust in this slumping Yankees offense, it’s Aaron Judge.
Likely the American League MVP, Judge finished with a .311 average and an MLB-best 1.111 OPS. He had 90 extra-base hits — over 50 percent of his total hits — including 62 home runs.
Judge has been slumping in the postseason, hitting just .156, and has just four extra-base hits since Sept. 26. But unlike when he chased Roger Maris’ single-season Yankees home run record, Judge is being attacked.
He has just one walk in the playoffs and a pair of home runs (five total hits). I like his chances at this prop in Game 4 as he draws a familiar face in McCullers. While he has just three hits in 15 at-bats, he has a double and a home run against the right-hander.
I expect Judge to come up clutch in this do-or-die performance. If there’s a player the Yankees desperately need to produce with just one loss left until elimination, it’s their All-Star slugger.
Following the narrative of a Yankees win, I’m adding this prop to the parlay.
Giancarlo Stanton to Record a Hit (-160)
The Yankees offense has been abysmal against Astros pitching, but Giancarlo Stanton has been one of the few players who has put up a semi-fight for the Bronx Bombers.
The right-hander has three hits — two doubles — against Houston, tied for the most on the team with Harrison Bader. He hit the home run to jumpstart New York in a win or go home Game 5 against Cleveland, and I expect him to show up on Sunday.
Stanton has faced McCullers nine times in his career and has two hits — a double and a home run — and four walks. He sees the right-hander extremely well and won’t be pitched around; he’ll likely be sandwiched between Judge and Gleyber Torres.
Interestingly enough, Stanton has reverse splits. His average jumps nearly 40 points when facing right-handed pitching as opposed to southpaws. His average is also .243 at Yankee Stadium, a number that drops to .186 on the road.
As I said in my Judge blurb, a same-game parlay is a longshot that follows a similar narrative. The Yankees winning would mean the offense shows up at some capacity en route to a win, avoiding elimination.
And if the Bronx Bombers have any real shot at even stealing just one game against the Astros, it’ll come behind the bats of Judge and Stanton.
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