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Astros vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Yordan Alvarez and the Road Dogs in Houston (Thursday, June 23)

Astros vs. Yankees MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Back Yordan Alvarez and the Road Dogs in Houston (Thursday, June 23) article feature image
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Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Yordan Alvarez

Astros vs. Yankees Odds

Astros Odds +105
Yankees Odds -125
Over/Under 8.5
Time 7:05 p.m. ET
TV MLB.TV
Odds via PointsBet. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.

The New York Yankees and Houston Astros are the two best teams in the American League with records of 51-18 and 43-25, respectively. They seem destined to meet in the Championship Series in the playoffs, which would be a rematch of the 2017 ALCS.

The Yankees are 8-2 in their last 10 games and have a +145 Run Differential this season compared to the Astros who are 7-3 in their last 10 games and have a +61 Run Differential. Who will get the job done in this probable postseason preview?

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Valdez and the Astros Look to Limit the Long Ball for New York

Framber Valdez has a 2.78 ERA and a 3.65 xFIP, which points to possible regression, but there are a few factors that should give him the edge in the pitching matchup compared to Jameson Taillon.

First, of course, is that Valdez’ xFIP is still lower than Taillon’s, and he’s completed six innings in 11 of 13 starts this year. Second, his power prevention numbers are quite a bit better as Valdez has allowed a .086 ISO to right-handed hitters and .024 ISO to left-handed hitters this season. The Yankees have a lot of power in the lineup as six hitters have ISOs of at least .180 against left-handed pitching this season, but Valdez has allowed just four home runs all year (0.44 HR/9).


Can Taillon Continue Over-Performing for the Yankees?

The Yankees have the best record in all of baseball, and they’ve allowed only 208 runs this season, which is the fewest in the majors. The starting rotation has helped carry them to their sterling record so far, but they have to give up some runs eventually. Starters Nestor Cortes and Jordan Montgomery did that in each of the last two games when they allowed four earned runs each.

Thursday’s starter, Jameson Taillon, hasn’t completed six innings in any of his last three starts. Despite his 2.70 ERA, he has a 4.07 xFIP, which points to him also being a candidate for regression. Taillon has allowed a .145 ISO to right-handed batters and a .162 ISO to left-handed batters this season, but the main offensive weapon for Houston is Yordan Alvarez, who has a .409 ISO against right-handed pitching this year.

Astros-Yankees Pick

I like the Astros here with the pitching advantage. Not only do they have the starting pitching edge, but the Yankees also used their closer Clay Holmes Wednesday and Monday night. It’s unlikely that New York would use him in three out of four days at this point in the season, so he could be unavailable in the late innings. Houston moneyline is a value play at plus-money here, and the best current line is at +114 at FanDuel.

Pick: Astros ML +114 | Play to +100

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