The New York Mets host the Atlanta Braves on August 14, 2025. First pitch from Citi Field is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on SNY.
The Mets and Braves have brought the fireworks through the first two games of this series. New York is a -190 favorite with an 8.5 run total in Thursday's game.
Find my MLB betting preview and Braves vs Mets prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Braves vs Mets Prediction
- Braves vs Mets pick: Over 8.5 (-120, play to 9)
My Braves vs Mets best bet is on the over 8.5 total runs. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Mets Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -130 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | +155 |
| Mets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +110 | 8.5 -115o / -105u | -190 |
Braves vs Mets Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Bryce Elder (ATL) | Stat | RHP Kodai Senga (NYM) |
|---|---|---|
| 4-9 | W-L | 7-4 |
| -0.2 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 6.12/5.51 | ERA /xERA | 2.30/3.86 |
| 5.15/4.23 | FIP / xFIP | 4.05/4.40 |
| 1.56 | WHIP | 1.24 |
| 9.3% | K-BB% | 10.5% |
| 49.5% | GB% | 47.6% |
| 87 | Stuff+ | 90 |
| 107 | Location+ | 92 |
Sean Paul’s Braves vs Mets Preview
New York Mets Betting Preview: Bats Look to Keep Rolling in Finale
The Mets needed a "get right" series in the worst way. That looked well on its way to happening until the Braves tagged David Peterson and Reed Garrett for nine earned runs in the fourth inning, to erase a 6-0 Mets lead.
They've made easy work of the Braves so far. Spencer Strider was grooving 94-96 mph fastballs, and the Mets drilled six homers on Monday, and they scored six runs in the first three innings versus Carlos Carrasco on Tuesday.
The Mets' offense has no shortage of talent, so it was only a matter of time until they started figuring it out. Despite going just 3-8 over their last 11 games, the Mets have a 103 wRC+ in that span. And both Pete Alonso and Juan Soto have put up elite numbers. Alonso boasts a 214 wRC+, showing flashes of his April dominance. Meanwhile, Soto owns a 13% walk rate and a 159 wRC+ in those 11 games. Lindor is struggling, but the Mets' offense should dominate in this series finale.
Pitching remains a pretty big problem for the Mets. That's the reason they're scratching and clawing to stay in a playoff spot. The one guy who can flip things is Kodai Senga. I'm not very confident that he'll be able to turn his current struggles around.
Senga seems to be just scratching the surface of his struggles. He's due for some major regression from his 2.30 ERA, as he has a 3.86 xERA, 4.05 FIP and 4.39 xFIP.
Moreover, his command and overall stuff have taken a nosedive in 2025. Senga has the fourth-worst BB/9 (4.50) out of pitchers with at least 90 innings.
Two seasons ago, Senga managed to atone for his walk issues with a 10.4 K/9. This year, he's punching out 8.43 batters per nine. He's unable to wiggle out of his own mistakes, and it's taxing a bullpen that's used more than any other pen.
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Offense Heating Up Despite Pitching Woes
The Braves have the perfect offensive DNA to deal with Senga. They already beset Clay Holmes and Peterson in the first two games, walking five times versus each starter. That's no surprise, given their 9.8% walk rate in their last 13 games, which contributes to them ranking 12th in wRC+ in that span.
Early on, Atlanta's offense struggled because only one or two hitters were performing well at a time. That's changed of late, as five hitters have a wRC+ better than 120 in their last 13 games. Marcell Ozuna has been the most encouraging, posting a 206 wRC+ in his last 11 games.
Now we encounter the Braves' Achilles heel. Pitching injuries forced the Braves to exhaust their organizational pitching depth, and they have no choice but to continue pitching Bryce Elder, who has a 6.12 ERA in the rotation.
You can't look at Elder's underlying numbers and leave with optimism. He has a 5.50 xERA and a 5.14 FIP, which means he probably won't improve much.
The Mets should tee off on Elder. He throws a low-90s sinker and allows a jarring 1.62 homers per nine. With the amount of power in the Mets' lineup, they should tag Elder for multiple homers. In Elder's last outing, the Marlins scored five runs against Elder and two starts prior, the Rangers scored eight against him. I could see New York treating Elder similarly.
Braves vs Mets Prediction, Betting Analysis
I'm going with the over here. The total went way over in the first two games of the series, and I see this one going the same way.
The Mets overused their bullpen the past two days, as the Braves worked Holmes and Peterson's pitch count. So if Senga, who typically lasts around five innings, can't provide length, the Mets' shaky bullpen will have to pitch a ton. That's a huge positive for the over.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-120, play to 9)
Moneyline
No play
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
I like the over
Braves vs Mets Betting Trends
