The Philadelphia Phillies host the Atlanta Braves on Thursday, May 28, 2025. First pitch for the first game of the doubleheader from Citizens Bank Park is scheduled for 1:05 p.m. ET; the game will be broadcast on MLB Network.
The hatred between these two rivals was ratcheted up another notch in the series opener, when Spencer Strider plunked Bryce Harper with a 95 mph fastball, which forced the Phillies' star to exit the game with an elbow contusion.Though there likely wasn't any intent from Strider, Thursday's matchup could be a contentious one given the recent history between these two NL East sides.
The Braves are sizeable underdogs in Thursday's matchup, as AJ Smith-Shawver (3.67 ERA, 41 2/3 IP) will take on Zack Wheeler (2.42 ERA, 58 IP).
Find my Braves vs Phillies prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends and more.
Editor's Note: The Braves vs Phillies game scheduled for Wednesday was postponed and will be made up as part of a doubleheader on Thursday.
My Braves vs Phillies Prediction
- Braves vs Phillies pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 (bet365, Play to +135)
My Braves vs Phillies best bet is Ronald Acuna Jr. over 1.5 total bases. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Braves vs Phillies Odds
| Braves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -185 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | +125 |
| Phillies Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +150 | 7.5 -120o / 100u | -150 |
Braves vs Phillies Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP AJ Smith-Shawver (ATL) | Stat | RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI) |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | W-L | 6-1 |
| 0.6 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 2.1 |
| 3.67/5.57 | ERA /xERA | 2.42/2.14 |
| 3.55/4.09 | FIP / xFIP | 2.73/2.51 |
| 1.42 | WHIP | 0.88 |
| 11.6 | K-BB% | 27.5 |
| 35.6 | GB% | 42.1 |
| 98 | Stuff+ | 109 |
| 94 | Location+ | 108 |
Nick Martin’s Braves vs Phillies Preview
Atlanta Braves Betting Preview: Offensive Resurgence With Acuna Back
The Braves were unable to produce anything offensively in the series opener, as Ranger Suarez pitched six dominant innings before the top arms from Philadelphia's high-quality bullpen pitched three scoreless innings.
Atlanta entered this series in strong form offensively, though, as it holds a wRC+ of 108 over the last 14 days.
Part of Atlanta's offensive resurgence has been due to Ronald Acuna Jr.'s return to the lineup, as the 2023 NL MVP has returned in top form after missing the majority of the 2024 campaign with a torn ACL.
In a tiny sample of 16 at-bats, Acuna has batted .313 and holds an OPS of 1.139 since returning to the lineup. He holds an absurd 33.3% barrel rate and an average exit velocity of 102.7 mph.
He's held reverse splits in two of the last three seasons, including a .605 slug rate during his MVP campaign in 2023.
Acuna has had 47 at-bats versus Wheeler in his career and has fared quite well, with an .867 OPS and four home runs.
Smith-Shawver has had a strong start to his big league career, as he holds an ERA of 3.66 through his first 71 1/3 innings pitched. He does appear due for some regression this season, though, as he owns a 5.57 xERA, 1.42 WHIP and a 4.09 xFIP.
Philadelphia Phillies Betting Preview: Wheeler in Cy Young Form
Wheeler has put himself firmly into Cy Young contention, with a 2.42 ERA across 70 2/3 innings of work. He'll likely lead the MLB in innings pitched after Wednesday's matchup.
He holds an xERA of 2.14 and an xFIP of 2.51. His pitch metrics are up compared to last season, as he owns a Stuff+ rating of 109 and a Pitching+ rating of 118.
The Phillies' bullpen has been more of a weakness than expected, as it's allowed an ERA of 3.53. It ranks eighth in xFIP however, and will likely achieve better results moving forward based on preseason projections.
Harper appears to have avoided a significant injury, as X-rays came back negative after he left Tuesday's matchup. He's listed as day-to-day and appears to be more on the doubtful side in terms of Wednesday's matchup.
Braves vs Phillies Prediction, Betting Analysis
Tonight's forecast is calling for fairly significant rain throughout this matchup, which is an important thought to keep in mind from a betting perspective.
There's a reasonable chance that if the game is to start on time, it could feature a rain delay at some point, and that would likely mean starters coming out of the game.
In terms of sides, the prices look fair at the time of writing. The Braves' lineup was due for better results early on this season and Atlanta started to find its stride recently, aided by the return of Acuna.
Smith-Shawver appears due for some regression, but he may be catching the Phillies at a good time if Harper is to miss this matchup.
While it would be foolish to suggest that Wheeler is a better than average matchup, Acuna has hit him very well historically and has returned in dominant form.
At a hefty price of +145, this looks like a good spot to back Acuna recording over 1.5 total bases, and I would bet it down to +135.
Pick: Ronald Acuna Jr. Over 1.5 Total Bases +145 (bet365, Play to +135)
