The Boston Red Sox host the Baltimore Orioles on August 18, 2025. First pitch from Fenway Park is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on MASN.
The Red Sox enter as -126 favorites in this series opener versus AL East foes, the Baltimore Orioles.
Find my MLB betting preview and Orioles vs Red Sox prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction
- Orioles vs Red Sox pick: Orioles ML
My Orioles vs Red Sox best bet is on the Orioles moneyline. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
Orioles vs Red Sox Odds
| Orioles Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -199 | 8.5 -115o / -106u | +104 |
| Red Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 +162 | 8.5 -115o / -106u | -126 |
Orioles vs Red Sox Projected Starting Pitchers
| LHP Trevor Rogers (BAL) | Stat | RHP Dustin May (BOS) |
|---|---|---|
| 5-2 | W-L | 7-8 |
| 2.5 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 1.2 |
| 1.43/3.05 | ERA /xERA | 4.67/4.71 |
| 2.45/3.63 | FIP / xFIP | 4.48/4.27 |
| 0.81 | WHIP | 1.35 |
| 17.2% | K-BB% | 12.9% |
| 48.4% | GB% | 43.4% |
| 93 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 105 | Location+ | 97 |
Sean Paul’s Orioles vs Red Sox Preview
Baltimore Orioles Betting Preview: Rogers Aims to Extend Dominance
The Orioles are out of any playoff contention, but that hasn’t kept them from playing spoiler. In their last two series, Baltimore stole two of three games from the Mariners and Astros, each of whom are jockeying for playoff positioning.
One of the best things to come from the last few months is Trevor Rogers emerging as a top-of-the-rotation arm. The Orioles brought in Rogers last year from Miami for Kyle Stowers, who made the All-Star team this year. Well, Rogers is making the Orioles portion of the trade look not so bad.
Rogers has been nothing short of dominating, posting a 1.43 ERA with a 3.07 xERA and 2.45 FIP in 69 1/3 innings through 11 starts. I'm buying stock in the Rogers resurgence. He ranks in the 87th percentile in BB%, 77th in barrel rate, and generates groundballs 47.8% of the time.
August hasn't been a kind month for the Orioles' offense. Heading into Sunday's game, where they scored 12 runs, they ranked dead last in MLB with a 63 wRC+ this month, with a league-worst .192 batting average and a shaky 25.5% strikeout rate.
I feel comfortable backing the Orioles here, even with the lineup problems. For one, even with those ugly numbers, we saw them beat two teams with better records than Boston, one of which (Houston) on the road.
Moreover, the Orioles' lineup is better equipped to face a right-handed hurler. Both Jackson Holiday and Gunner Henderson will have better matchups against a right-hander, and top-prospect Samuel Basallo is also a switch-hitter.
Boston Red Sox Betting Preview: Fenway Advantage Meets Pitching Questions
The Red Sox have made Fenway Park a house of horrors for opposing teams of late. Since the start of June, Boston is 25-9 at home. So, backing Boston at home has proven to be worthwhile.
The larger question is, can you put your faith in Dustin May? He looked marvelous in his last outing, tossing six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts in a win over Houston. In May’s first start with Boston, he allowed three runs in only 3 ⅔ innings.
Through 21 outings between the Dodgers and Red Sox, May has a 4.67 ERA with a 4.74 xERA and 4.48 FIP. May boasts a strong 8.63 strikeouts per nine, but he also walks 3.56 hitters per nine. That’s a bit worrisome and it’s why May typically doesn't pitch more than five or six innings.
How much should May’s one strong outing adjust how you view him? I don’t think much. We have 20 other starts where May appeared to be a fairly mediocre arm with diminishing velocity and command problems. Perhaps Boston unlocked what made May a top prospect prior to injuries, but I’m skeptical.
I also don't trust the Red Sox lineup in this matchup. Facing a strong left-hander could limit a Boston lineup that ranks 15th in MLB with a 101 wRC+ in August. The Red Sox could struggle with Rogers, as Roman Anthony has struggled facing lefties with big breaking balls, and Jarren Duran struggles against lefties. Of course, having Rob Refsnyder and Romy Gonzalez in the lineup is huge, as both crush southpaws. I just don't trust the rest of the lineup outside of that pair and Alex Bregman.
Orioles vs Red Sox Prediction, Betting Analysis
The line is slightly closer than I expected, but I would take the Orioles up to +105.
Rogers is a legitimate stud and May is a pitcher worth fading. He's had plenty of chances to prove he's a consistent MLB starter and regularly comes up short. That leads me to feel comfortable with taking the better pitcher in this matchup.
Pick: Orioles ML (+105, Fanatics)
Moneyline
I like the Orioles here
Run Line (Spread)
No play
Over/Under
No play
Orioles vs Red Sox Betting Trends
